Space threats - what can destroy humanity? Asteroids are not the only threat to Earth from space.
An asteroid (from Greek “like a star,” “star”) is also called a minor planet. It is a celestial body whose size exceeds 30 km. Some of them have their own satellites. Many asteroids travel through our solar system. 3.5 million years ago fell to Earth huge amount asteroids that led to global changes.
In the spring of 2016, geologists in Australia discovered traces of an asteroid impact, the diameter of which was about 30-40 km. That is, it is comparable in size to a small satellite. The fall caused an 11-magnitude earthquake, a tsunami and large-scale destruction. It was probably one of the asteroids, as a result of which not only the beginnings of life were formed on earth, but also the entire diversity of the biosphere. There is also an opinion that the mysterious disappearance of dinosaurs occurred due to the fall of a large asteroid to Earth. Although this is just one of many versions... It's interesting! The ancient Chicxulub impact crater was formed as a result of an encounter with a meteorite. Its depth once reached 20 km. The meteorite impact caused a tsunami and climate change similar to a nuclear winter. In addition, the temperature on Earth could drop by 26 degrees for up to 16 years.
According to scientists' calculations, the fall of an asteroid to Earth can lead to enormous damage if a body about 1 km in size falls onto the Earth's land. First of all, a funnel with a diameter of approximately 15 km will form, which will cause dust to enter the atmosphere. And this, in turn, can lead to large-scale fires. Dust, heated by the sun, will reduce ozone levels and accelerate chemical reactions in the stratosphere, will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the planet's surface.
What should we do to prevent this from happening???
"Space Patrol"
“Space Patrol” is a system that students and scientists from the Moscow Institute of Nuclear Physics plan to create state university. Three satellites will guard earthly tranquility. Main task devices - monitor the near-Earth space and warn in time about dangerous phenomena, including asteroids. Scientists will install unique security cameras on the devices, which were successfully tested on the university’s Lomonosov satellite. The satellite carried out the world's first experiment in observing dangerous space objects using wide-angle optical cameras: they cover a large area of space and take photographs with enormous resolution, in which potentially dangerous objects can be seen.
Ground monitoring
In 2017, the main tools for observing asteroids are ground-based telescopes. Unfortunately, such a system cannot always warn of danger: something flies by unnoticed, as was the case with the Chelyabinsk meteorite. Because of a space guest with a diameter of 18 meters in February 2013, hundreds of people ended up in hospitals; the damage, according to various estimates, amounted to up to half a billion. The ground segment cannot always guarantee absolute control over outer space, however, in conjunction with satellites, this system can become a complete defense against threats from outer space.
Asteroids at risk
For the first time about the space threat seriously and on international level started talking in the middle of the last century. Over these decades, scientists have compiled a catalog of asteroids, including those potentially dangerous to our planet, and there are more than a thousand of them. The blacklist no longer includes only the well-known Apophis, who periodically approaches the Earth. Scientists are discovering new objects, some of them are many times larger than the known ones. Potentially dangerous asteroids are those that are located at a distance of approximately 7.5 million kilometers from Earth. By cosmic standards, this is a very close distance: the stability of the orbit of such an asteroid is unpredictable, it can be disturbed by Jupiter, Mars and other planets.
Waiting for disaster
Every second, tons of cosmic grains fall to Earth and burn up in the atmosphere without a trace. According to statistics, large meteorites with a diameter of tens of meters, like the Tunguska meteorite, fall once every hundred years, and kilometer-sized ones, which are already called asteroids, fall once in millions. Each such collision is a disaster for earthly life. An event like the Tunguska explosion today could turn into a true catastrophe on a planetary scale: population density is growing, new infrastructure is appearing, and the fall of a body with a diameter of 100 meters can cause very serious consequences.
Repelling attacks
At the moment, there are many plans to destroy dangerous asteroids: from destruction laser beam and creating special traps to constructing devices that can latch onto an asteroid and change its orbit. Scientists offer the most different options developments of events, many of which involve scientific study dangerous objects. For science, asteroids, meteorites and comets are priceless. In the remains of meteorites, scientists find unique substances - primordial material that is found only in outer space. Among other things, space guests can answer eternal question about the origin of life on Earth. Research has shown that centuries-old ice, which often makes up meteorites and asteroids, can preserve even the faintest traces of biological life.
Money from space
Some researchers believe that in the future it will be possible to get rich from asteroids and meteorites - provided that we learn to catch them. A kilometer-long asteroid of the iron-nickel type contains so many metals that on Earth it would be enough to cover the need for steel, cast iron and other metals for five thousand years. Now this sounds fantastic, but human space flight was once a bold dream. On the other hand, others are making money by selling meteorites today: a piece of a guest from outer space can cost quite a lot of money, and demand consistently exceeds supply.
New forecast about the end of the world.
Recently, it has become fashionable to predict apocalypses. Time and time again, scientists, professionals and amateurs, predict global events that this time will “certainly” wipe out all life from the face of the Earth. Moreover, no one is embarrassed that there may be several such events a year. And sometimes, even within a month there may be two or even three ends of the world.
In general, it is already possible to derive a whole classification of apocalypses: practical, alien, scientific-mythological and stone. By the way, the latter are relevant precisely at the moment. After all, according to scientists, a giant asteroid, designated TC4 2012, is heading towards our planet. The size of the giant is twice the size of the legendary Chelyabinsk meteorite. The speed of the object is more than 28 thousand kilometers per hour.
It will be at its closest distance to Earth very soon - on October 12. True, scientists have not yet said anything about the possibility of its breaking through the atmosphere of our planet, in which most celestial bodies usually burn up. Actually, experts advise preparing for worse development events, although their more optimistic colleagues recommend not to panic and remind that exactly three days of judgment were “planned” for this month.
The diameter of the stone block is about 40 meters, so its collision with the Earth could cause irreversible destruction. TS4 2012 was opened, and this is logical, in 2012. The trajectory of its movement is quite stable. The probability of a collision with the Earth is negligible - only 1%, but it still exists. Having such a chance of winning, people nevertheless manage to win the lottery. Of course, by the standards of space, the object is tiny, but the consequences of a collision with a planet the size of Earth can be catastrophic. Nobody says that in this case all life on Earth will die in an instant, but after the collision, changes in the ozone layer will begin, which will entail climate transformations, and radical ones at that.
It is worth noting that mysterious planet Nibiru has not yet been canceled either, and, judging by forecasts, it should (once again) collide with the Earth in October. This planet, according to some scientists, is located nearby in the solar system and hides behind the Sun. But complex gravitational processes may soon lead to it “coming out of the shadows” and dealing a crushing blow to the Earth. One of the “main apocalyptic experts,” David Mead, writes about this in his book “Planet H: 2017 Arrival.” According to his book, the world's elites have information on this matter, but they keep it strictly confidential from the public, diligently misleading people with information about NASA’s total control over the situation. They are preparing for the end of the world, building huge bunkers underground where they will hide with their loved ones. This theory of a worldwide conspiracy has existed for many years; in any case, information about it reappears from time to time in some “supposedly secret” documents.
The prophecy of Saint Matrona for the current year is also interesting. Matrona of Moscow passed away in 1952, after which she was canonized. During her lifetime, the blind and partially paralyzed woman was famous for her ability to heal and make fairly accurate predictions. Some of them came true after her death, others concern the future. She gave dire predictions for 2017, which, however, do not coincide with the prophecies of many famous predictors. Matrona’s predictions concerned August 2017, but they did not come true, and representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church, in general, they stated that one should not take the blessed one’s forecasts seriously.
As many as four apocalypses of quite diverse nature were planned for the fall of this year. On September 23, a huge asteroid was expected, which, fortunately, passed by. On October 12, its “brother” may arrive, and on October 21, the aforementioned planet Nibiru, against which our planet can only withstand if the ruler of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, launches a nuclear strike on it. Another asteroid could hit Earth in November, destroying the United States. And in December, the Earth will face perhaps the most interesting version of the apocalypse - the invasion of hundreds of gigantic UFOs.
Delving deeper into history, one can find references to the end of the world as early as 2800 BC, set out on a cuneiform tablet that was found in Mesopotamia. Residents of the Earth may have different attitudes to the warnings of futurologists, predictors and scientists. Which one to listen to, everyone decides for himself. But at the same time, some calmly continue to live, immersed in daily affairs and worries, and forgetting about all the apocalyptic warnings, while others, fortunately in the minority, rush in panic to build arks and bunkers, stocking up on food and things that they may need when the world will disappear, and they will remain in their shelter. By the way, one of the American retail chains has already put “survival kits” on sale. The set also includes a package of canned food that can be stored for a quarter of a century, worth a thousand dollars. Store consultants say that canned food from the set one person can eat for a whole year. The package contains one hundred cans intended for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Food products included in the kits: fruits, grains, milk, vegetables, meat, sugar and salt.
Space hazards are dangerous space objects and various cosmic radiation, which in varying degrees may pose a threat to planet Earth from space. Lately the funds mass media Along with the usual sensations, various space disasters with giant meteorite waves, comet falls, and collisions with huge asteroids are increasingly being prophesied.
These space objects constitute a certain level of threat depending on their size, mass and speed of movement.
1. Meteorites
A meteorite is a cosmic body that falls on the surface of any planet. In most cases, they come in mostly small sizes. These space objects constantly fall on our planet. Larger meteorites form craters when they fall onto the surface of the planet. At the moment, the largest meteorite known is Goba, whose mass is up to 60 tons. In science fiction films, very popular images show how hundred-meter waves caused by a falling meteorite wash away entire giant cities with their skyscrapers.
Goba is the largest meteorite found. It is also the largest piece of iron on Earth natural origin. Photo: ru.wikipedia.org
2. Asteroids
An asteroid is a large meteorite body that, if it falls, can lead to a catastrophe on a planetary scale. According to the science of paleontology, over the past 500 million years, our planet has experienced five collisions with huge asteroids. Each such collision led to global changes in nature and the living world on Earth. Modern astronomers are trying to track the trajectories of giant asteroids in space, and somehow prevent their possible collision with our planet. But, despite all efforts, approximately once a month, some large asteroid the size of a football field flies past the Earth, completely unnoticed. A collision with an asteroid several kilometers in diameter would be fatal for our planet.
Large meteorite body - Asteroid. Photo: wikimedia.org 3. Comets
A comet is bright celestial body small size. Although, it seems to many that, on the contrary, they pose the greatest danger to the Earth - after all, they seem so huge! But in fact, their enormous size does not pose a great danger, at least for planet Earth. After all, the length of a comet is only made up of small grains of dust illuminated by sunlight. In space, they are often more noticeable than asteroids due to their spectacular gas and dust tail. Comets look especially beautiful and spectacular in the night sky. Our planet collided with the tail of Comet Halley in 1910 - and no catastrophic consequences! Jupiter was less fortunate in this regard, which in 1994 had to collide with a fragment of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, as a result of which it rose high temperature, and a large gas cloud formed. But fortunately, according to astronomers, such cases do not happen often in space.
Comet “Hale Bopp” Photo: wikimedia.org The main task of astronomers is to find ways to prevent such “meetings” of these cosmic bodies with our Earth. At the moment, nuclear missile technology is being improved with complex system intercepting, breaking into pieces, changing the trajectory of movement, or even destroying them in order to save life on planet Earth.
4. Problems that we don’t notice
There are also invisible space dangers. Solar radiation, cosmic rays, and various cosmic dust They also influence earthly life in their own way.
1.Solar radiation
ABOUT solar radiation we hear it very often, and try to avoid it as much as possible. This electromagnetic radiation Sun. This also includes solar winds and solar flares. Their especially negative impact on the unprotected human body. Recently, this has become a cause of skin cancer. Therefore, the question of the possibility of protecting humanity from this radiation is raised. Also, it has already been proven that solar radiation is very harmful to the eyes, as it causes various ophthalmological diseases.
2. Cosmic rays
Cosmic rays are tiny particles and the nuclei of atoms, which move predominantly in outer space. But they can also enter the earth's atmosphere. Of course, for astronauts in outer space, cosmic rays represent great danger, and they are protected from them by a spacesuit. But already in the atmosphere, these invisible cosmic dangers are no longer so active. But to what extent are they still dangerous for people on Earth? to the fullest not yet studied.
3.Space debris
Space debris is all already used and faulty objects in Space. They pose more of a threat to functional spacecraft than to the inhabitants of the Earth. According to scientists, at the moment, the mass of space debris reaches several thousand tons. These malfunctioning space objects can leave orbit at any moment and fall to Earth. But while various fragments of spent space stations fell safely into the waters Pacific Ocean or burned up in a dense layer of the atmosphere. But still, the problem is with space debris has not yet been completely resolved.
The fifteenth of February marked five years since the appearance of a large meteoroid in the sky over Chelyabinsk, which caused a commotion in the city and attracted the interest of astronomers around the world. What happened that day? Could something like this happen again? What is humanity doing and can do so that such events, at a minimum, do not happen suddenly, and so that, at a maximum, we learn to fend off such threats? With these questions the editors N+1 turned to astronomer Leonid Elenin, an employee of the Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for whom the incident over Chelyabinsk was of particular significance.
The fifteenth of February 2013 began unexpectedly for me - at 7:30 in the morning I received a call from one of the government agencies with the question: “What happened over Chelyabinsk?” When the understanding came of what had happened, the main question became another: why didn’t we discover this body in advance? The piquancy of the situation was also added by the fact that on the same day, the famous near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 was supposed to fly past the Earth, but at a safe distance from it, and the day before the events described, speaking at a press conference, I assured those gathered that not a single of the known asteroids does not threaten us in the near future. The first quick analysis of data from video cameras showed that the fireball has nothing to do with asteroid 2012 DA14, and it became clear why this meteoroid crept up on us unnoticed... But first things first.
First, let's figure out what these objects are, where they come from, how they are detected, and why the Chelyabinsk guest physically could not be detected by existing space control means.
Telescopes at the ready
The first near-Earth asteroid (NEA) was discovered in 1898. Subsequently, he received the number 433 and the name Eros. Yes, yes, this is that asteroid from the TV series “The Expanse”. At the time, its orbit seemed unique, since most asteroids orbit the Sun in the Main Asteroid Belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
After about 100 years, a revolution occurred in the field of image recording - photographic plates became history, and CCD cameras began to be introduced in their place. The transition from analog information to “digital” has revolutionized astronomy, including in the field of positional observations of small bodies of the Solar System, which include asteroids and comets. New technology made it possible to quickly and with high accuracy determine the coordinates of celestial objects, calculate their orbits and automate the process of detecting new objects in the received frames, because previously this was done manually on devices called blink comparators.
Gradually, astronomers began to understand that objects like Eros are quite common in the solar system and that, according to probability theory, they can collide with planets. This was only the first step towards understanding the problem of the asteroid-comet hazard (ACH).
In 1980, scientists - father and son Alvarez - formulated a theory of the collision of the Earth with a large celestial body (8-10 kilometers in diameter) in the distant past and linked the formation of the giant Chicxulub crater in the Gulf of Mexico with the extinction of dinosaurs. Further - more. Thus, in 1983, the newly discovered comet C/1983 H1 (IRAS-Araki-Alcock) flew just 4.67 million kilometers from Earth. The size of its core was comparable to the body that collided with the Earth 65 million years ago.
The last straw was the collision of comet P/1993 F2 (Shoemaker-Levy 9), or rather a chain of its fragments, with Jupiter. The comet was discovered in 1993, already torn apart by the gravity of the giant planet, and it was only a matter of time before it collided with the planet. On July 7, 1994, 21 comet fragments, each up to two kilometers in size, entered Jupiter's atmosphere. The total energy release was about 6 million megatons, which is 750 times more than the entire nuclear potential accumulated on Earth!
Figure 1. Number of open for last decades near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Objects with a diameter of a kilometer or more are indicated in red, 140 meters or more in orange, and all others in blue.
After all these events, the USA adopted government program searching for dangerous celestial bodies approaching the Earth. In 1998, the first survey telescope went on duty. Over the course of several years, several more tools began working on this topic, and the results were not long in coming. Figure 1 shows the statistics of ASZ discoveries since 1980, which speaks for itself.
Currently, several dedicated instruments with a primary mirror diameter of up to 1.8 meters are working on the ACO topic. Many telescopes that began their work 20 years ago have been modernized - new colossal CCD cameras have been installed on them. For example, the mosaic of CCD chips in the Pan-STARRS telescope is half a meter in diameter. The question arises: would we now be able to discover the Chelyabinsk meteoroid in advance? No! And here's why.
The trajectory of the meteoroid over Chelyabinsk
Difficult to detect
All near-Earth asteroids are divided into three families, depending on their orbit. All of them have an aphelion (the most distant point of the orbit from the Sun) outside the Earth's orbit, so they can be detected. But scientists wondered: are there similar objects orbiting the Sun inside the Earth’s orbit and dangerously approaching our planet near their aphelion?
If the orbit of a celestial body is inside the earth's orbit, then it is quite difficult to observe it, even if it is a planet. It’s not for nothing that Venus is called “ morning star" It is visible in our sky at dusk, in the evening or in the morning. But this is a very bright object, but how can you detect small asteroids in the not yet dark, twilight sky? Such an experiment was carried out. The telescope, installed high in the mountains, was pointed at areas above the horizon when the Sun was already plunging behind it. The penetration of telescopes (the ability to detect dim objects) in a bright sky is catastrophically reduced, but even in such conditions it was possible to discover several objects that were classified as a new family of near-Earth asteroids. This experience showed that if we do not see some objects, this does not mean that they do not exist (observational selection effect).
I will immediately answer the question about the use of radio telescopes. Yes, they can work during the day, but at the moment their radiation pattern (angle of view) is very small and does not allow searching for objects at long distances. Nowadays, locating asteroids often requires optical support - telescopes clarify the orbit of the celestial body and the radio telescope is aimed at the already specified coordinates.
The Chelyabinsk meteoroid did not belong to this family of internal NEAs (the Atira family), but was approaching us from the direction of the Sun, and this was main reason that he was not discovered. Another reason is due to its small size. Before entering the atmosphere, its diameter was approximately 17 meters. The typical lead time for detecting objects of this size is less than a day, when they come very close to the Earth and modern telescopes can detect them.
By the way, the Chelyabinsk event quite strongly shook the minds of scientists working on ACO issues. Previously it was believed that an object less than 50–80 meters in diameter could not cause great harm people, as it will burn up in the atmosphere. Events over Chelyabinsk showed that this is not so. All destruction was caused not by the collision of the body itself with the surface of the Earth, but by an air explosion at an altitude of approximately 19 kilometers. Let me remind you that more than a thousand people were injured. If this had happened over densely populated areas of Europe or Japan, there would have been significantly more casualties. So now scientists understand that the search for decameter-sized asteroids (tens of meters across) is important task AKO.
For such a search, large telescopes began to be used, working on astrophysical and cosmological problems. For example, an upgraded 4-meter telescope searching for dark energy, - Dark Energy Camera (DECam). In a few years, a new generation survey telescope should be operational in Chile - the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), with a main mirror diameter of 8.3 meters! This instrument will greatly expand the detection range of small near-Earth objects. But all this will not solve the problem of internal ASZ.
Figure 2. Libration points (Lagrange points). Points L1, L4, L5 are especially convenient for moving to them to assess the threat to the Earth from asteroids flying towards it.
For her effective solution it is necessary to launch search telescopes into space, and not just into space, but away from Earth. For example, to libration points (Lagrange points) L1, L4, L5 (Figure 2). In this case, we will look at the Earth from the side, which will allow us to detect dangerous objects approaching our planet from the direction of the Sun. According to theoretical calculations, even greater detection efficiency will be achieved by placing spacecraft in the orbit of Venus or Mercury.
The technical implementation of such projects will be complicated by the need to transfer large amounts of data over vast distances. For point L1 this is 1.5 million kilometers, for L4/L5 - 150 million kilometers, but for the orbit of Venus it ranges from 38 to 261 million kilometers. Here you will need to find a balance between two approaches. What is better, transmitting “raw” frames to Earth and then, on powerful computers, squeezing maximum information out of them - in our case, detecting even the dimmest objects - or transmitting only measurements, and carrying out all the simplified processing on board? Most likely, a symbiosis of both approaches will be used. And this is just one of many complex technical problems that scientists and engineers will have to solve.
Theoretical studies of such missions are underway, including in Russia. Only after we are able to massively detect internal NEAs and study their population will we be able to resolve one of the ACO issues regarding the detection of dangerous objects. But that's not all. Well, you ask, we have discovered an object flying on a collision course towards the Earth, but what next?
Microscopic studies Chelyabinsk meteorite
Even harder to “knock down”
Realistically speaking, for now we can only calculate the time and place of the fall. That is, notify special services and try to evacuate the population from the dangerous area. To do this, it is necessary to increase the characteristic lead time from several hours to several days. If we talk about parrying a threat, then everything is not so simple. If this emergency and danger threatens us in the very near future, then the choice is small - it is either a purely kinetic impact (impact with a blank), or an explosive one, coupled with a kinetic one (we bury the charge and detonate it).
Everything seems to be beautiful and even quite feasible. We have already successfully bombarded small bodies, the charge is there, duty interceptor carriers can be created, but there are a few “buts”.
Firstly, this approach concerns only relatively small objects. Good news is that we already know the vast majority of large ASZs and real threat, on the horizon of a couple of hundred years, they do not represent. But there are still unknown comets, which, as we see, can approach the Earth.
Secondly, to hit an object, you need to know its orbit well, and this requires a long observation time (observation arc). If the object is detected several days before the collision, even if our interceptor is in full steam, then we may not get there.
And thirdly, the methods described above are not controlled - that is, by destroying one large object, we can get a cloud of fragments that will enter the atmosphere, and not all of them will burn up. And then there is the question of what is better: one large object or a swarm of its fragments. Or we can, by kinetic action, move the asteroid differently than we would like, moving it, for example, into an orbit with more more likely collisions. Since we are not writing the script for a new blockbuster, things may not go as planned...
If an object is dangerous to us in the medium term, over an interval of tens of years, then we can use methods of soft and, importantly, controlled impact. For an untrained person, they may seem quite strange, but they can really work if we have decades to spare. For example, we can place a small spacecraft, which will attract the asteroid - just as the asteroid will attract the apparatus to itself, but, of course, with greater force, because the huge block is much more massive. In this case, we can very accurately calculate the impact and predictably, very slowly, change the orbit of the celestial body.
You can land a spacecraft on the surface of an asteroid and change its orbit using low-thrust engines. Landing on an asteroid or comet nucleus is no longer a fantasy - it has already been realized. You can even paint an asteroid! Yes, yes, paint one side of the asteroid in white so that it reflects sunlight, and the second, unpainted side was heated, emitting thermal energy, capable of giving the asteroid additional acceleration (Yarkovsky effect). Knowing the shape of the asteroid and the parameters of its rotation around its axis, you can calculate exactly how it needs to be painted to achieve the desired result.
That's how brief overview ACO issues, although, of course, this topic is much broader and deeper. There are those who say that this problem does not deserve attention, because the likelihood of a major collision is very low. Yes, this is so, and the task of real scientists is not to scare, but to warn. Even though the probability is indeed very small, the price of inaction is millions and billions of lives, and perhaps the fate of the entire civilization. Humanity has everything in order not to follow the sad path of dinosaurs (although for us the fall of a celestial body in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be a happy event - the first mammals then pulled out their lucky ticket).
Therefore, we need to do everything to preserve our world, and this applies, of course, not only to the asteroid-comet danger. Good luck to everyone and look at the night sky more often - it is very beautiful and still holds many mysteries that we have to solve!
Leonid Elenin
Threat from space. Is planet Earth safe from stone guests from other Galaxies?
Every minute, at great speed, like bullets, only several times faster, uninvited space guests crash into the surface of neighboring planets and the Earth’s satellite, the Moon. Astronomers continually warn about giant boulders whose flight path runs dangerously close to the blue planet. Will the collision be sudden or will scientists be able to prevent a disaster? What dangers does cold space pose? And can earthlings really resist attacks from comets and asteroids?
People have invented vaccines for previously incurable diseases, managed to deceive nature and, thanks to medicine, increase life expectancy. They build roads at an altitude of thousands of meters among rocks and restless volcanoes, cut underwater tunnels for high speed trains and look with interest at Mars as a future colony of earthlings. But it turned out to be impossible to conquer space, unravel its secrets and be prepared for the invasion of stone fragments. The real threat to humanity is not on Earth, scientists are sure.
An example of human helplessness was the sudden fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite, which turned out to be impossible to predict. And to prevent destruction - even more so. The meteorite would have shifted by a couple of degrees, the speed would have been a little higher, and a real catastrophe would have been inevitable. The way humanity got off after its fall was nothing short of luck, experts in the field of astronomy and physics assure. But how many other similar or several hundred times more threats are located very close to Earth?
Asteroids are coming back
12 years ago, the asteroid Apophis flew near the Earth, scientists carefully studied its trajectory, dimensions and calculated the likelihood of a collision. By the way, it turned out to be practically equal to zero. But such studies made it possible to find out when the stone guest will visit again solar system. And what are its actual dimensions? It turned out that Apophis will return very soon - in 2029, scientists are sure, it will fly very close, and it will be possible to see the asteroid through ordinary telescope. Such closeness to the Earth’s orbit is dangerous because the Earth’s gravity can influence all objects approaching it; if you can’t pull a huge boulder, you can easily change its trajectory. And then, upon returning after a few years, the giant’s route may pass even closer to the planet. Ultimately, an asteroid that flew by, for example, back in the 50s of the last century, may end up in the earth’s atmosphere on its next return. True, despite this, some scientific publications are skeptical about “asteroid disasters”, accusing everyone who spreads rumors about the approach of the next “killer asteroid” of wanting to promote themselves and launch a well-rehearsed horror story among everyone. One of these publications even contacted NASA directly to publicly make an official statement about the presence of any real threats to the planet from asteroids in the next few years. By the way, American scientists have confirmed this fact; according to all calculations available to NASA, there will be no major collisions for at least a hundred years. Enough for our lifetime!
Black holes
If everything is more or less clear with asteroids, then with “wormholes”, or in other words - black holes, there is no clarity at all. Perhaps the main reason is that it is not possible to study them. And how do forces operate and the laws of physics work in this cosmic body- is known only approximately. Recently, the results of astrophysical research were published in one of the foreign journals, the text talked about a “suspicious eruption of matter from a black hole” only 105 million light years from Earth. In other words, without scientific terms, a substance resembling gas came out of the black hole, only heated to a million degrees Celsius. In other words, such powerful energy, if it does not “reach” our system, will significantly affect it. And when the effect is visible to the naked eye, again, it is difficult to calculate. Scientists even joke that there are plenty of black holes in our Galaxy and they need to be studied as efficiently as possible. They suck in planets, emit hot gas or “devour” stars - until the matter is studied, it is not possible to prevent a catastrophe or predict it.
Gamma radiation will burn the planet to the ground
Such clots of radioactive energy appear as a result of the explosion of stars, scientists explain. Even if the star is located several million light years from our system, the flashes after the explosion are clearly visible. In addition, these gamma rays are comparable in destructive power to nuclear strike straight from space. Their power is capable of burning the atmosphere and all life on the planet. True, if they “reach out.” A barrier of several million light years is a significant argument in favor of Earth.
Hot Sun
One of the most popular versions and scenarios for disaster films is the whims of our star-nurse - the Sun. It is no wonder that without it, life on the planet would be impossible. Scientists believe that the temperature of our planet is gradually increasing, not like on a hot frying pan, but nevertheless, after some thousands of years the temperature will be higher, which means the size of the Sun will also increase. Accordingly, along with this, the Earth's climate will change - the oceans will begin to evaporate, depriving all living things of the necessary moisture. In any case, no one promised the Earth a happy existence until the end of time. According to another version, the Sun, on the contrary, is cooling down and this scenario also does not bode well. Having turned into a white dwarf, the star will not be able to provide light and heat to nearby planets. And life on Earth will also be imprisoned by permafrost.
The earth is surrounded. How many threats?
It is known that there are about 6,200 objects dangerously close to the Earth; all of them will sooner or later fly by or have already passed nearby, and any change in their trajectory promises a collision. What is the likelihood of such a meeting? “Dangerous proximity” is a designation of a distance when a collision is possible if the trajectory changes. Those. there are several main components here that do not guarantee a real threat - “in case” and “possibly”. Probability of the scenario when under the influence external factors a large asteroid will suddenly head towards Earth 1: 10,000,000. In fact, NASA employees monitor every space object very closely, however, lack of funding also plays a role. Taking control of every celestial body is unrealistic. But those that may pose a threat to the Earth are on a special register. Scientists ignore only those objects whose size is less than one kilometer, mostly because there is no financial opportunity and sufficient quantity human resources. Therefore, it is problematic to detect an asteroid in time, which can make noise, even if it does not destroy the planet. So far, only very small asteroids have passed close to the Earth, the fall of which does not promise any trouble. So, for example, on November 6, 2009, a baby asteroid named 2009VA, whose diameter was less than 10 meters, flew by at a distance of less than 14 thousand kilometers from Earth. And one of the last uninvited guests, 2014RC, flew at a distance of almost 40 thousand kilometers, its diameter was more than 20 meters. At least, as astronomers assure, such cases as the Chelyabinsk meteorite are ordinary, and perhaps even if it got into the telescope of a large observatory, no one would betray it special significance. After all, the dimensions of the object do not fall under the critical criteria. However, space incidents once again remind humanity who is boss in the Universe. Instead of inventing new smartphones and driving more firmly into the piles of another international corporation, it would be worth thinking about the development space program. After all, the future of humanity lies in discoveries, and many of them are beyond the Earth’s orbit.
