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Course work on the topic “Financial forecasting”. Financial forecasts: types, areas of application, role

The use of financial planning in the current conditions is necessary, but there are factors limiting its use in enterprises:

A high degree of uncertainty in the Russian market associated with ongoing global changes in all spheres of public life (their unpredictability makes planning difficult);

A small proportion of enterprises have the financial capacity to carry out serious financial developments;

Lack of regulatory framework for domestic business.

Large companies have great opportunities for effective financial planning. They have sufficient financial resources to attract highly qualified specialists to ensure the implementation of large-scale planned work in the field of finance.

Small businesses, as a rule, do not have the funds for this, although the need for financial planning is greater than in large ones. Small firms more often need to attract borrowed funds to ensure their economic activity, while the external environment of such enterprises is less controllable and more aggressive. And as a result, the future of a small enterprise is more uncertain and unpredictable.

For Russian enterprises, two areas that require the use of planning can be outlined:

1) newly created private firms. The rapid process of capital accumulation has led to an increase in the complexity of the activities of many of these firms, as well as to the emergence of other factors that create the need for forms of planning adequate to a modern market economy. Main problem, associated with the use of planning in this area, is a distrust of formal planning, based on the opinion that business is the ability to “turn around”, to correctly navigate the current situation, and hence insufficient attention to even the not very distant future. However, many of the larger firms began to create planning departments, or at least introduced the position of financial planner.

2) state and former state, now privatized enterprises. For them, the planning function is traditional. However, their planning experience relates mainly to the period of a centralized economy. Hence, planning at these enterprises was of a secondary nature, reflecting planning activities at the central and sectoral levels, and, therefore, did not imply a serious ability to analyze and anticipate their own development goals.

Therefore, both organizations of the first type, as well as state and privatized enterprises, need to re-master the experience of in-house planning.

In general, in Russian planning there has always been an element of unjustified generalization of private experience. It is still present: uniform principles and formats of planning, including efficiency criteria and control methods, were used practically without changes in all regions, industries, for all enterprises of holdings and groups, almost without taking into account the specifics of organizational structures, management systems, distribution systems, delegation of powers , relationships between current and strategic objectives, regional and industry characteristics of enterprises. Another characteristic feature is the inability to prioritize.

An analysis of the reasons for the insufficient operating efficiency of a number of enterprises made it possible to identify the main problems and formulate the following principles for setting up a planning system:

The process of changing the planning system must keep pace with the processes of mergers, acquisitions, and corresponding changes in the structures and management systems of enterprises and holdings;

Planning (adjustment and clarification) should be carried out “from top to bottom” according to the “tree of goals” principle, that is, systematically, then the plans will be comprehensive and self-sufficient. At the same time, “from above” is not from the general manager, but from the founders, owners, investors, those people who own this business. If this rule is not followed, then planning turns into an absolutely meaningless action;

Scenario planning should be carried out taking into account changes in the external environment, external and internal risks;

It is necessary to plan defensive actions and counter-actions to compensate real threats competitors, their lobbying activities, etc.;

Plans and production programs should be optimized taking into account the strategic interests of the owner, according to economic and investment criteria;

The planning system must be tied to the enterprise's existing system of centers of responsibility, authority, and controlling system, otherwise the implementation of even the best plans will be ineffective;

A mandatory requirement is that the planning system must include a motivation system for top managers, “key” managers and specialists.

The implementation of these principles for constructing a planning system allows (of course, in conjunction with other management components) to build and implement a strategy that minimizes the likelihood of losses.

There are two main lines along which everything must be built correctly: strategic planning and, accordingly, strategic business management and operational (tactical) planning.

If we talk about strategic planning, then this is, first of all, a search for those points, directions and ways of doing business that will give the maximum result in a certain time frame. It is understood that every day, week, month in any business something happens or should happen. Therefore, planning meetings, meetings and other events help to quickly manage the process.

The main difficulty in planning is implementation. Writing a plan is not so difficult, but how to make it work.

Plans, of course, must be “workable”, and it is necessary that they contain the real desires of the company’s top managers. Often plans made by other people do not work precisely because they are foreign.

The plan must also be realistic from a market perspective. That is, a marketing analysis is needed: is there a market, is there a certain number of consumers, are they willing to pay money. Often companies don't take this into account. In strategic planning as part of strategic management, the key point, of course, is the market, and the main thing is to hit the mark and not miscalculate.

The next aspect of planning is the capabilities of the organization. It is necessary to calculate whether there are enough resources for a good market.

And there is another very subtle point that arises during implementation. Plans must be internalized by managers; they must want to do it. The problem area is precisely strategic planning. They try to implement tactical planning in one way or another: build current plans, schedules, schedule meetings, and so on. Although they often create schedules, but forget to assign those responsible.

With strategic planning, everything is much more complicated. Only strong, large companies reach the “strategic” level. They are faced with the task of reaching a new level of business, and there is a need for planning of a completely different kind.

In order to satisfy this need, you need to have serious information about how similar businesses are developing in other countries, how such a business can develop in Russia, taking into account political and economic conditions in five years - that is, information that needs to be specially collected.

The most common problem is restructuring. That is, the company has “grown” and complex organizational changes are needed. And this is followed by systematic work on strategy, marketing, personnel development, corporate culture. But the need for serious planning is limited to these organizations. Good plans are now found in one company out of ten, and their complete absence - in four out of ten. But, on the other hand, most companies already make them. Compared with the end of the 90s, the progress is very significant. And development will occur in a positive direction, especially since the degree of uncertainty of the situation in the country and region will decrease. Civilized marketing information also appears.

An enterprise must plan and control in two main economic areas. We are talking about the profitability (profitability) of his work and financial position. Therefore, the profit budget (plan) and financial plan (budget) are central elements of intra-company planning.

Planning for working capital needs. The enterprise needs to plan the use of both fixed and working capital. An important factor in planning the use of working capital is planning the timing of income and expenses. The availability of working capital of the enterprise must cover expenses from the time production begins until the consumer pays for the product.

Planning of fixed capital requirements. As the enterprise develops, machines wear out, technology changes, and new buildings, equipment, and computers are required. Often the time frame for acquiring fixed capital is quite long. This means that it is important to include financial planning in the strategic planning process of a business. If a business wants to conquer new markets and expand production of a product, it must take care of its capital needs while forming long-term marketing plans and basic research into production methods. Planning sources of income. There are many known sources of enterprise funds, including income from the sale of products, investments of its owners, and loans. The challenge is first and foremost to find the best source for each need at the exact time the need arises.

Good planning is about obtaining the necessary funds not only on time, but also at the lowest cost. To do this, you need to find a bank that can provide them at the present time, correlate the source of funds with the purpose for which they will be used, balance the various sources, since you cannot rely only on bank loans, only on the issue of shares or income receipts. In particular, you need to choose the right time: sell shares when the stock market is booming, do not borrow when interest rates are high, etc.

Planning can raise new problems for the organization. Some of them include:

Difficulty in planning. This requires a change in the type of thinking. Strategic planning should be a creative process that uses new ideas. Many people are not ready for this type of decision making. New relationships and roles can arise as a result of the application of strategic planning. Individuals may be dissatisfied with additional tasks and activities;

Planning requires additional time, the involvement of new people, not to mention time for research, redistribution of resources, and changes in the organization. All this can “sink” the organization, especially if there are insufficient resources;

Plans may be ineffective. Incorrect assumptions, overly optimistic forecasts, and other decisions can result in an ineffective strategic plan. Such a strategic plan can lead to serious problems in the organization;

Impossibility of application. If top management does not support the strategic plan, then implementation becomes impossible and the entire process is a waste of time and resources. Additionally, it may occur internal resistance strategic planning.

The main target function of planning becomes ensuring long-term competitiveness, which determines the strength and stability of the management object in the market. Another main function is information-orienting. The key task is to provide guidance to managers that, on the one hand, is consistent with their interests, and on the other hand, contributes to the achievement of the main results of the plan. To create a sound development program, a business must continually collect and analyze vast amounts of information about the industry, market, competition, and other factors in order to anticipate future problems and opportunities. This provides senior management with a means to create a long-term plan, a basis for making decisions, and formally promotes risk reduction in those decisions.

In a market economy and fierce competition, the importance and relevance of financial planning increases. The well-being of a commercial organization fundamentally depends on the competent organization of financial planning. A business cannot prosper without developed financial plans (budgets) and without control over their implementation. In developed countries, planning is one of the most important tools for regulating the economy. Russian commercial organizations have extensive experience in forecasting and planning work, developing various feasibility studies, and assessing the economic efficiency of projects, which should not be ignored. However, the use in modern conditions of theories that have lost their economic relevance inevitably leads to a crisis in the management of many domestic enterprises. It is obvious that changes in economic conditions necessitate the formation of a planning system based on a synthesis of Russian practice and the achievements of world economic thought. In this case, special attention should be paid to the organizational and methodological aspects of financial planning.

Unfortunately, at present, in most commercial organizations there is no financial planning, and decisions made by management on organizing financial and economic activities are not justified by appropriate calculations and are intuitive in nature. To a certain extent, attention to the preparation of financial plans at enterprises in our country was weakened due to the overwhelming influence of external forces and circumstances: high inflation, financial crisis, frequent changes and adjustments to the regulatory framework of organizations, severance of economic ties, and so on.

In many commercial organizations, planned work is carried out only for a short period of time and comes down to determining a more or less accurate amount of advance tax payments. However, too short a planning horizon over time turns into a barrier to business development and leads to an emphasis on current problems. Therefore, even more importance should be given to strategic and long-term planning. In this regard, the evolution of the behavior of Russian business is positive - the wave of redistribution of ownership and control has ended, companies are implementing new development strategies, focused not on a month or a quarter, but on years.

Financial planning and forecasting at an enterprise is interconnected with the planning of economic activities and is based on the indicators of the production plan. However, drawing up a plan is not a simple arithmetic recalculation of production plan indicators into financial indicators. During the planning process, an analysis of the production plan indicators is carried out, intra-farm reserves not taken into account in them are identified and used, and ways of more efficient use of the enterprise’s production capacity, more rational consumption of material and monetary resources, improving product quality, expanding the range, etc.

In conditions of political and economic instability, as well as high inflation rates, planning makes no sense. However, the higher the level of uncertainty generated by instability, the more significant the role of planning, during which various management options must be justified that are adequate to the corresponding forecast development scenarios. At the same time, the planning system itself must be rebuilt. That is, when planning and forecasting, you need to be more careful in choosing methods, more fully consider and explore the environment, and have accurate information about the financial side of the issue.

Summarizing the above, we can say that financial planning and forecasting are necessary elements of economic management. Forecast and plan complement each other. The purpose of forecasting is, first of all, to create the prerequisites for the implementation of planned decisions. The purpose of financial planning is to determine the total need of an enterprise for financial resources in amounts that provide financing for the expansion of production, the fulfillment of financial and credit obligations to the budget, banks, etc., the solution of social problems and problems of material incentives for employees of the enterprise. In addition, financial planning helps prevent excess and above-plan expenditures of inventory and financial resources, both for individual types of activities and for the enterprise as a whole. For the successful operation of an enterprise, various methods indicated in the first chapter are used in the practice of financial planning and forecasting. To solve problems at domestic enterprises, it is important to identify the reasons for the ineffective operation of the enterprise and formulate the basic principles of setting up a planning and forecasting system. Having examined the theoretical and methodological aspects of financial planning and forecasting at an enterprise, we will move on to studying efficiency assessment using the example of Neftekamskneftekhim OJSC.

Introduction
Chapter 1. Concepts and essence of financial forecasting
1.1. The concept and tasks of financial forecasting
1.2. System of financial forecasting methods
1.3. Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels
Chapter 2. Prospects for financial forecasting in the Russian Federation
2.1. Prospects for socio-economic development
2.2. Main priorities of socio-economic development
Conclusion
List of sources used

Introduction

Nowadays, every day society is faced with a huge variety of financial relations, including quite diverse daily financial transactions. It is absolutely clear that for the growth and stability of the country’s economy, for the successful functioning and development of the entire market economy, it is necessary to have a reliable financial system, which is a set of interrelated areas and links of financial relations.

Thus, the creation of a reliable financial system is one of the important tasks of the state. It serves as the basis for the entire existing economy and undoubtedly plays a very important role. Currently, in the economic literature there are many different controversial statements regarding the composition and structure of the financial system. But different terms, views and controversial opinions on some individual issues do not cancel general idea about the main subjects of the financial system. There are long-established, traditional ideas about the composition of the financial system and terminology, which is defined by regulations Russian Federation and is traditionally used in our country.

In addition to the main components of the financial system, each developed country has its own characteristics that have allowed it to reach certain heights at the present stage. Therefore, the study of the financial system of developed countries is of interest to Russian specialists in the field of economics and finance. Consideration of the features of financial systems foreign countries It is advisable from the point of view of the possible use of some of its aspects in the structure of the Russian financial system.

Chapter 1. Concepts and essence of financial forecasting

1.1. The concept and tasks of financial forecasting

Financial forecasting reveals the expected future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for carrying out financial activities and represents a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out to scientifically substantiate the indicators of financial plans and contribute to the development of a concept for financial development for the forecast period, includes assessing the expected volume of financial resources and determining the preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, government bodies and local self-government.

The objectives of financial forecasting are:

– linking material and financial-cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future;

– determination of the sources of formation and volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;

– justification of directions for the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on an analysis of trends and dynamics financial indicators taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them;

– determination and assessment of the financial consequences of decisions made by state authorities and local governments, business entities.

Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, or the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:

1) within the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future based on established cause-and-effect relationships;

2) in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for movement from the future to the present, when a chain of possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future are unfolded and studied, based on the existing level of development of the organization, administrative-territorial unit and the country as a whole.

Mathematical modeling allows you to take into account many interrelated factors that influence the indicators of the financial forecast, and select from several options for the forecast project that is most consistent with the accepted concept of industrial, socio-economic development and financial policy goals.

Econometric forecasting is based on the principles of economic theory and statistics: the calculation of forecast indicators is carried out on the basis of statistical estimation coefficients for one or more economic variables acting as forecast factors; allows you to consider the simultaneous change of several variables that affect the financial forecast indicators. Econometric models describe, with a certain degree of probability, the dynamics of indicators depending on changes in factors influencing financial processes. When constructing econometric models, the mathematical apparatus of regression analysis is used, which gives quantitative estimates of the average relationships and proportions that have developed in the economy during the base period. To obtain the most reliable results, economic and mathematical methods are supplemented with expert assessments.

The method of expert assessments involves generalization and mathematical processing of the assessments of specialist experts on a specific issue. The effectiveness of this method depends on the professionalism and competence of the experts. Such forecasting can be quite accurate, but expert assessments are subjective, depend on the expert’s “feelings” and are not always amenable to rational explanation.

The trend method, which assumes the dependence of some groups of income and expenses only on the time factor, is based on constant rates of change (constant growth rate trend) or constant absolute changes (linear time trend). Disadvantage this method is ignoring economic, demographic and other factors.

The development of scenarios is not always based on science and objectivity; they are always influenced by political preferences, preferences of individual officials, investors, owners, but this allows us to assess the consequences of the implementation of certain political promises.

Stochastic methods assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the data used and the forecast financial indicators. The likelihood of calculating an accurate financial forecast is determined by the amount of empirical data used in the forecast.

Thus, financial forecasting methods differ in costs and volumes of final information provided: the more complex the forecasting method, the greater the costs associated with it and the volumes of information obtained with its help.

The result of financial forecasting is the preparation of a financial forecast, which is a system of scientifically based assumptions about possible directions of future development and the state of the financial system, its individual areas and subjects of financial relations. Forecasts make it possible to consider various options for the development of finance, for example, under favorable, average and worst-case scenarios for the development of the economy, business entity, market conditions, etc. Financial forecasts can be short-term (up to 3 years), medium-term (5-7 years) and long-term (up to 10-15 years).

At the national and territorial levels, financial forecasts are compiled in the form of a perspective financial plan and balance of financial resources (country, region, municipality) (Articles 172, 174, 175 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation).

1.2. System of financial forecasting methods

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction stated that financial forecasting methods that have received widespread in developed foreign countries.

Thus, depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups:

Methods of expert assessments, which involve a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. The application of these methods in practice usually involves using the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, and production managers of an enterprise or government agency. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weighting coefficients, threshold values of controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic methods that assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the indicators being studied. The likelihood of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading position in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is to study trends in sales volumes by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to the influence of random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice of a method for forecasting a particular group depends on many factors, including the available source data.

The first situation - the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is necessary to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we're talking about about identifying a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main ones being simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

The second situation—the presence of a spatial aggregate—occurs if, for some reason, there is no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

The third situation - the presence of a spatio-temporal set - occurs in the case when: a) the time series are not long enough to construct statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrixes of indicators, each of which represents the values of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented within the framework of the well-known factor analysis model of the DuPont company. Using this model and substituting predicted values into it various factors, for example, sales revenue, asset turnover, degree of financial dependence and others, you can calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very clear example is the form of a profit and loss statement, which is a tabular implementation of a strictly determined factor model that connects the resulting attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, level of costs, level of tax rates, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of government revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here we cannot fail to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic enterprise simulation models. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. Processing this information within the framework of a unified financial model allows us to assess the projected financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, this kind of model can only be built using personal computers, which allow one to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

1.3. Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels

As such, there was no financial forecasting system at the macro level in the Russian Federation. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of a financial forecasting institute. These and perhaps many other factors prevented the creation of a state forecasting institute. Therefore, the initiative to create a forecasting institute had to come from outside, which ultimately happened.

The initiator of the creation of the Institute of Social and Economic Forecasting was the European Union program - TACIS “Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development RF". This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000.

Within the framework of this TACIS project on the “Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Russian Federation” by the Ministry of Finance and the Center for Economic and Social Development social reforms The Policy Evaluation and Planning Group (PAG) was formed. The OPP Group is designed to deal with long-term issues of the Kyrgyz economy and develop foresight regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PPR team received an analytical framework to assist in the construction of scenarios and economic policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.

A forecasting system designed for the Russian Federation cannot to the fullest take into account all the determining factors postulated by theories. Issues related to data availability need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex.

In any economy there are strong links between productivity, income levels and the level and structure of demand, which are changed through fiscal and economic policies.

Thus, the DESP system should cover both supply and demand side factors. Particular attention should be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport, communications and energy networks, education and training institutions). The main factor determining investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

There are limitations in creating a model. The data base for the Russian Federation still has gaps (for example, fixed capital). Due to the fact that statistical concepts were adapted to changes associated with the transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market system only after 1993, the length of time lags is currently a maximum of six years. These limitations indicate that this model cannot be an econometric model. classic type. To forecast horizons up to 20 years, estimates of model parameters must be based on at least 50-100 years of empirical data. Therefore, the problem of inaccurate forecasts arises.

In this regard, the parameters of the DESP system can only be based on the “experience” of other countries. The parameter values were brought into line with the structures and relationships of the Russian Federation.

At the micro level, the main problem may be the inaccuracy of forecasts with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and time catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It must be taken into account that the accuracy of forecasts is influenced by the human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes drawing up the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy of forecasting depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of financial forecasting method and the implementation of strict financial control.

Chapter 2. Prospects for financial forecasting in the Russian Federation

2.1. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in the Russian Federation

The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the forecast) was developed on the basis of scenario conditions approved by the Government of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast and is based on the goals and priorities defined in the strategic planning documents.

The forecast was developed as part of three main options – basic, “basic+” and target. The basic option considers the development of the Russian economy in the context of maintaining conservative trends in changes in external factors, taking into account the possible deterioration of foreign economic and other conditions and is characterized by maintaining a restrained budget policy. The option reflects a conservative development scenario, has the status of a conservative forecast option and does not imply a fundamental change in the economic growth model.

The base case was developed based on a fairly low price trajectory for Urals oil: at the level of 41 US dollars per barrel in 2016 and stabilization at the level of 40 US dollars per barrel throughout the entire forecast period. Such an assessment of the oil price level is conservative, since it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices. A significant increase in oil export volumes is expected - almost 21 million tons by 2019 compared to 2016, while simultaneously increasing the share of non-resource exports in total exports to 34.8% in 2015 prices.

In conditions of limited financial opportunities and slow economic recovery, the main social parameters will be

characterized by restrained dynamics, while providing for the mandatory fulfillment of the state’s minimum social obligations.

Under these conditions, retail trade turnover will also recover at a moderate pace – up to 1.8% in 2019. While maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy, inflation will drop to 5.8% in 2016 (on an annualized basis), and at the end of 2017 it will reach 4.0% and will remain at this level until the end of the forecast period.

By mid-2017, investment activity is expected to stabilize. Investment growth will resume in 2018. The average annual increase in investment in 2018–2019 will be 1.3% and will be determined by the possibility of increasing private investment against the backdrop of a reduction in public investment spending.

Net capital outflow will increase from US$18 billion in 2016 to US$25 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Approaches to fiscal policy are generally conservative and do not differ in forecast options. The federal budget, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, will be in deficit throughout the entire period 2016–2019 in all forecast options. In order to finance the deficit, it will be necessary to use budgetary funds, attract internal and external borrowings, and privatize state property.

In 2016, the decline in GDP will slow to 0.6%, and by the end of the year the economy is expected to transition from stagnation to restoration of economic growth. In 2017, the GDP growth rate will move into the positive area and amount to 0.6%, in 2018 the GDP growth rate will increase to 1.7%, and in 2019 – to 2.1 percent.

The “basic+” option considers the development of the Russian economy in more favorable external economic conditions and is based on a trajectory of moderate growth in Urals oil prices to US$48 per barrel in 2017, US$52 per barrel in 2018 and US$55 per barrel in 2019.

In the social sphere this option The forecast provides for an increase in the standard of living of the population based on a moderate increase in the social obligations of the state and business. Consumer demand will recover as income growth accelerates and consumer lending expands. In 2019, the growth of retail trade turnover will increase to 3.5%, the volume of paid services to the population - to 2.8 percent.

Against the backdrop of a more active recovery in consumer demand, the slowdown in inflation will be moderate: at the end of 2017, inflation will drop to 4.5%, and in 2018–2019 to 4.3% and 4.1%, respectively. Net capital outflow from the private sector will decline and by 2019 will amount to US$15 billion.

Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, strengthening of the ruble exchange rate and more favorable external conditions, investments in fixed assets will recover at a faster pace. The average annual increase in investment in 2017–2019 will be 2.9% per year, with outpacing investment growth in the infrastructure sector and private investment.

Due to the higher oil price in the “base+” option, the amount of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will be noticeably higher, which will ensure the achievement of a balanced federal budget.

Economic recovery under the “basic+” option will be characterized by a higher rate: 1.1% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019.

The target option focuses on achieving target indicators of socio-economic development and solving strategic planning problems. In the medium term, it is expected that the Russian economy will enter a trajectory of sustainable growth at rates no lower than the world average, while simultaneously ensuring macroeconomic balance. As a result, retail trade turnover, after moderate growth of 1.5-2.3% in 2017–2018, will accelerate to 5.3% in 2019.

Inflation will reach 3.9% at the end of 2018. In 2019, inflation will remain at the 2018 level amid increased consumer demand.

External conditions remain at the level of the “basic+” option, but in order to achieve the intended target parameters, a transition of the economy to an investment model of development will be necessary. This assumes containing in the first years of the forecast period the growth of consumption expenditures and reducing various types costs for business.

Exports of goods will increase at a higher rate than in the base cases; the growth rate of non-resource non-energy exports will exceed the growth rate of exports in general and will average 4.9% in 2017–2019 in real terms. The volume of non-resource, non-energy exports in value terms will increase annually by 9 percent. The share of investment goods in the structure of imports will increase, while investment imports will grow at a faster pace. The gradual revival of the economy during the forecast period will contribute to an improvement in the business climate, which will be manifested in a reduction in net capital outflow until its complete cessation by 2019.

The new economic model assumes an active investment policy. Creating an investment resource and conditions for transforming savings into investments, increasing the propensity to invest through the implementation of macroeconomic and regulatory measures, aimed at increasing the level of business confidence and improving the business environment, will lead to an increase in the growth rate of investment in fixed capital in 2017–2019 to an average of 5.2% per year, with accelerated growth in private investment and investment in the infrastructure sector.

Starting from 2017, subject to a gradual reduction in interest rates, which will have a positive impact on business lending, taking into account the implementation and start of implementation of new large investment projects and economic policy measures aimed at activating economic growth factors and improving economic efficiency, GDP growth rates will reach 4 .4% in 2019, which is 2.3 percentage points higher compared to the base case.

Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019.

Table 1 – Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019

Indicator	2016	2017	2018	2019
Urals oil prices, dollars per barrel
Consumer price index at the end of the year, %
Gross domestic product,%
Industry, %
Real disposable income of the population, %
Real wages of employees of organizations,%
Export - total, billion US dollars
Import - total, billion US dollars

The GDP growth rate increases in 2017 to 1.8%, in 2018 – to 3 percent. To achieve the target parameters of socio-economic development, it is necessary to carry out significant structural reforms within the framework of budget policy, implying, along with optimization and increased efficiency, an increase in productive expenses that ensure the macroeconomic efficiency of budget expenditures.

2.2. Main priorities of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation

By 2019, it is necessary to create conditions for the implementation of the main elements of a new model of economic development; the domestic economy should achieve stable growth based on the accelerated growth of private investment using modern technological solutions and strategic planning mechanisms. In accordance with the Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”, by the end of 2018 the stage of forming a system of strategic planning documents within the framework of a single cycle of strategic planning of the Russian Federation will be completed.

A set of scientific and methodological studies and organizational measures will be carried out to improve the regulatory framework for strategic planning, to optimize the reporting system of federal executive authorities on the progress of implementation of strategic planning documents and the effectiveness of implemented measures government regulation in the field of socio-economic development.

The socio-economic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation for the medium term (2017 – 2019) is based on the priorities formulated in Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012 No. 596-606 and in the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period until 2018 .

The main priorities of economic policy during the forecast period are:

– increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation,

Improving the business climate and creating a favorable business environment;

An increase in the share of productive expenses in the structure of budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation;

Import substitution;

Improving the quality of life and increasing investment in human capital;

Balanced regional development;

Improving the quality of functioning of government institutions;

Development of information technologies and support of high-tech sectors of the economy.

In terms of increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation, improving the business climate and creating a favorable business environment in 2017–2018, the main attention will be paid to the implementation of new initiatives of the business community, law enforcement practices and communicating information about the results of the implementation of road maps to business representatives.

In order to preserve potentially solvent participants in economic turnover, changes will be made to the bankruptcy legislation aimed at improving the mechanisms for their financial recovery.

An increase in the share of productive expenditures in the structure of budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation will be ensured through the use of the mechanism of state programs of the Russian Federation in the budget process against the backdrop of budgetary consolidation, which involves, first of all, measures to optimize and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures that do not provide significant macroeconomic effects.

The implementation of the Federal Law of July 13, 2015 No. 246-FZ “On Amendments to the Federal Law “On the Protection of the Rights of Legal Entities and Individual Entrepreneurs in the Exercise of State Control (Supervision) and Municipal Control” is aimed at maintaining the stability of tax conditions, which provides for the establishment 3-year “supervisory holidays” in relation to scheduled inspections for enterprises that have not had serious violations of established requirements for conducting business activities for three years.

As part of the import substitution process, starting in 2017, measures will be implemented to create a preferential lending mechanism for simplified access of agricultural producers to credit funds. In terms of improving the quality of life and investing in human capital, a set of measures is planned:

Maintaining a zero VAT rate in 2017 for services for the transportation of passengers by rail in suburban transport;

Construction, within the framework of the “Housing for the Russian Family” program, of engineering, social and transport infrastructure facilities, including 92 preschool institutions and 44 secondary schools;

Creating conditions for citizens of the Russian Federation to improve their living conditions at least once every 15 years.

It is expected that by 2018, the average interest rate on residential mortgage loans (in rubles) will exceed the consumer price index by no more than 2.2 percentage points.

In the field of education, regional, national and industry championships of professional excellence, all-Russian Olympiads and competitions in professions and specialties of secondary vocational education are held to increase the public prestige of working professions and secondary vocational education.

A program to promote the creation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (based on the forecasted need) of new places in general education organizations for 2016–2025 was approved, equal conditions for access to funding were established through budgetary allocations of state, municipal and private organizations additional education children. In addition, a network of resource educational and methodological centers for training people with disabilities has been created on the basis of educational organizations of higher education.

In the healthcare sector, key areas public policy until 2018 are:

Ensuring that additional measures are taken to improve the medical and economic efficiency of the healthcare system based on evidence-based analysis;

Development of a methodology for accounting for costs in medical organizations for the provision of medical care and calculating the cost of the program of state guarantees of free provision of medical care to citizens;

Adoption of a “road map” for the development of nuclear medicine and diagnostic centers.

In the field of professional development, over the next two years, in order to develop an effective and flexible skilled labor market, work will continue to develop professional qualifications, including by updating the requirements for the competencies and qualifications of employees, as well as creating a system for independent assessment of their professional level. In terms of developing information technologies and supporting high-tech sectors of the economy, work continues to eliminate the “digital divide” through the development of broadband access to the Internet information and telecommunications network, the launch of digital broadcasting throughout Russia, and ensuring widespread availability of television, taking into account new technological capabilities. In 2017–2018, support for import substitution of products in the field of information technology and stimulation of software exports will continue.

In 2018, a Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation will be developed, within the framework of which the share of overdue accounts payable in the expenditures of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation should be reduced from 0.22% in 2015 to 0.1% in 2020.

In terms of improving the quality of functioning of government institutions, an important goal of structural socio-economic transformations is to improve the quality of public administration.

To achieve this goal, it is planned to introduce an institute for assessing the actual impact of adopted legislative acts and create a network of multifunctional centers for the provision of state and municipal services.

The tasks of increasing the efficiency of federal property management, privatization and the formation of integrated structures, as well as improving the mechanisms for managing federally owned shares and real estate, including land plots, remain relevant. At the same time, in 2017–2018 the course of consistent reduction of the public sector of the economy will be continued.

Chapter 3. Improving financial forecasting in the Russian Federation

The transition of the Russian economy to an innovative path of development in the context of globalization and ever deeper integration of the country into world economic relations, increasing economic openness, is an imperative for maintaining sustainable rates of economic growth in the medium and long term. In the era of globalization of the world economy, the basis for the successful positioning of a country, region, or industry lies in constant innovative renewal aimed at achieving maximum productivity, competitiveness, and development of human capital. According to existing estimates, in developed countries from 50% to 90% of GDP growth is determined by innovations and technological progress, innovations become prerequisite and the main “engine” of development of all sectors of industry and services.

Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future. On the one hand, financial forecasting precedes financial planning, and on the other hand, it is an integral part of it, since the development of financial plans is based on indicators of financial forecasts.

In the process of forecasting economic development, it is necessary to optimally take into account the effect of a whole complex of contradictory factors determined by the requirements for solving current and future problems of economic development. Today, in terms of forecasting the Russian economy, it is relevant to choose a development option that

would make it possible to overcome the general negative trend of development towards intensification, improving the quality indicators of the functioning of economic systems, such as increasing the efficiency of use of all types of resources, accelerating the growth rate of national income both absolutely and relatively per capita, increasing the share of accumulation to scientifically justified values .

Using the example of the modern Russian economy, we can identify the following imbalances that negatively affect economic development:

Discrepancy between the volume and structure of capital investments and the requirements for ensuring normal reproduction of fixed capital

Imbalance in the structure and volume of fixed capital and labor resources in regions, industries and enterprises

Unjustifiably high prices for basic types of fuel, energy and raw materials

Sharp property differentiation of the population

Imperfection of the tax system

Imbalance of payment turnover, means of payment and the need for them by enterprises and organizations.

The listed and other indicators of the imbalance of various aspects of the functioning of market economic systems are due to both objective factors and subjective factors, which are manifested in the absence and weak development of a forecasting system for the Russian economy, in an insufficiently balanced and politically determined approach to solving a number of complex problems.

Currently, the question of the need for a nationwide system of plans and forecasts for the development and functioning of all types of economic systems with an optimal balance between state regulation and self-regulation of market relations is relevant. As such, there was no financial forecasting system at the macroeconomic level in the Russian Federation. This was largely due to the fact that there was a transition from a planned system to a market economy, there were no qualified specialists in this field, and funds were not allocated for these purposes.

In order to change the current situation and ensure the competitiveness of the national economy in the long term, it is necessary to organize the process of forming a coherent vision of the technological future of Russia among all participants in this process: the state, business, science, civil society and jointly try to realize the goals. The key role in organizing this process belongs to the state, not only as its initiator, but also as a guarantor of the implementation of the agreements reached.

The most adequate tool for achieving this task is Foresight, used in almost all developed and many developing countries.

What is foresight?

Foresight is a tool for forming priorities and mobilizing a large number of participants to achieve qualitatively new results in the field of science and technology, economics, state and society.

The difference between Foresight and forecasting is a much more comprehensive approach.

Firstly, forecasts, as a rule, are formed by a narrow circle of experts and in most cases are associated with predictions of poorly controllable events (forecast of stock prices, weather, sports results, etc.). Within the framework of foresight, we are talking about assessing possible prospects for innovative development related to the progress of science and technology, outlining possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, as well as the likely effects on the economy and society.

Secondly, Foresight always implies the participation (often through intensive mutual discussions) of many experts from all fields of activity, to one degree or another related to the topic of a particular foresight project, and sometimes conducting surveys of certain groups of the population (residents of the region, youth and etc.) directly interested in solving problems discussed within the project.

The third main difference between Foresight and traditional forecasts is the focus on developing practical measures to bring closer selected strategic guidelines

Foresight methodology differs from traditional forecasting, futurology (study of the future) and strategic planning and is not limited to prediction: it is a methodology for organizing a process aimed at creating a common vision of the future among participants, which all stakeholders strive to support with their current actions. Thus, this methodology is not associated with predicting the future, but rather with its formation, which allows us to consider Foresight a specific tool for managing technological development, based on the infrastructure created within its framework.

The concept of modern Foresight is based on: the interest of participants in anticipating their future; their readiness to cooperate; their understanding of the need to focus on the long term; desire to combine efforts and resources; creating a coordinating structure to help reach consensus.

The forecasting system cannot fully take into account all factors. The model cannot be too complex, but must cover the factors and take into account the main relationships:

Due to the fact that the Russian Federation is a less open economy, it is necessary to take into account interactions with the global economy and the impact of international competitiveness;

Due to the fact that the Russian Federation is a developing country, capital and innovation are the main constraint on growth and productivity improvements;

Particular attention must be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport, communications and energy networks, education and training institutions). The main factor determining investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

Ways to solve problems of financial forecasting and improve it lie in eliminating problems, i.e., first of all, these are the following actions:

Creation of special research centers for the development of forecasts in the Russian Federation at the level government agencies;

Training of highly qualified specialists in this field;

Usage methodological foundations financial forecasting, based on scientific developments of developed countries and methods of financial forecasting;

Attention should be paid to the poor quality of the projections of the long-term financial plan, which is a valid document, as well as the complete freedom and independence of executive bodies from federal laws that approve the parameters of the federal budget in relation to indicators of the federal budget surplus and contributions to the stabilization fund;

In financial and economic policy, it is necessary to develop a mechanism for assessing the quality and reliability of forecast and planned (budget) projections by economic departments, to develop political and criminal systems of responsibility of officials for gross miscalculations and deviations of forecasts and budget plans in comparison with the approved initial federal laws, as well as compared with real, actual indicators and real, quite predictable dynamics.

Conclusion

In the process of financial forecasting, specific methods such as mathematical modeling, econometric forecasting, expert assessments, trend building and scenario development, and stochastic methods are used to calculate financial indicators.

Today, in the management of the Russian economy, an inertial forecast of the economy plays a very serious role, on the basis of which, according to legislation, a concept of long-term economic development must be built, detailing the forecast itself.

The inertial forecast, of course, is multivariate, considers various scenarios and depends mainly on a set of important indicators: oil price, inflation, demography, etc. Economic growth rates are derived from resources and other factors, and the product created in the future is “divided” into different goals: social and others. But not everything is so simple; as a rule, some socio-economic standards are set that need to be reached in the future, but still they mainly depend on the dynamics of the volumes and productivity of economic resources, and not vice versa.

A conceptual and predictive solution to specific socio-economic problems at the level precisely proves the real social orientation of the state, brings the necessary stability to public opinion and is an important factor in ensuring confidence in the future (especially if plans are systematically implemented). And the population’s confidence in the future, interest in the future is a powerful socio-psychological factor in increasing labor activity and economic growth.

The planning and forecasting system must be clearly focused on the specific benefit of each individual person, and not human efforts should be directed towards abstract general goals of the state.

Moreover, the process of future forecasting itself should be more democratic in nature - if desired, not only the relevant government agencies, but also independent organizations and experts should freely participate in it; it is possible to carry out widespread surveys of the population about the shape of the desired future, wishes and fears, about development goals and ways to achieve them.

Future forecasting will be focused on general conceptual qualitative goals, build appropriate strategies, analyze multivariate development scenarios, take into account the probabilistic nature of development (which lately sharply intensifying) and a system of risks (especially military-political factors and the increased catastrophic nature of world development), the unpredictability of many events. Specific solutions to problems are detailed in major national economic projects and programs. In the future, as planning and forecasting develop, real programming and open planning of turning on/off economic regulators is possible, depending on the state of the system of established development indicators - in this situation, the population and business will feel more and more confident and not fear the future. In many ways, the forecasting and planning system will move closer to public policy. Regulators of a market economy, as it develops, will be of an increasingly economic, indirect, non-rigid nature, replacing direct administration; the legislative system is stabilizing; the institutional environment will approach world standards.

As a means of achieving the set goals, first of all, not potentially possible resource investments will be considered, but the development of fundamental and applied science, innovative processes, the formation of new principles of trust, public-private partnerships, partnerships in society, the consolidation of society on the basis of common socio-political and cultural values.

The economic bloc must adapt to these goals and objectives, gradually ceasing to dominate in the public consciousness as an intrinsic value.

The development of the economic bloc is clearly linked in forecasts to human capital, managerial capital, and social capital (relationship capital). All types of investments in the human factor (and the effect of these investments) become the most important ways of achieving the goals set by society.

A system of lifelong education in conjunction with the improvement and expanded implementation of publicly available information and communication technologies, the Internet, electronic libraries and databases, etc. is becoming a necessary infrastructure for the development of the human factor in the economy.

Another qualitatively important block of the future forecasting and planning system is long-term technology foresight, anticipating revolutionary technological breakthroughs, planning transitions to higher technological levels in order to solve socio-economic problems. In principle, in the future, the knowledge intensity of products, works, services, and any type of activity will steadily increase and indirectly indicate the successful development of the economy.

List of sources used

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PENZA STATE UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF BUSINESS

Department of Banking and Monetary Relations

Coursework

in the discipline "Finance"

"Financial forecasts: types, areas of application, role"

Completed by: student gr. FK-33

Navruzov R.T.

Checked by: Ph.D., Associate Professor

Tugusheva V.R.

Penza - 2013

Introduction

3.2 Improving the financial forecast system

Conclusion

References

Application

Introduction

Man has always been interested in the future. Expectation of the future for a person often takes the form of a forecast. Historically, people have tried to predict, foresee, forecast. However, these forecasts were more subjective than objective.

Modern forecasts and plans differ from past ones, first of all, in the methodology of justification. An increase in the level of substantiation of forecasts indicates the experience accumulated and used by humanity scientific approach to develop an image of the future. If we consider the economy specifically, the results of forecasting and planning in various fields of activity depend, first of all, on a correct understanding of the laws and trends in economic and financial relations, good knowledge and consideration of the operating conditions of a particular business entity and, finally, on a reasonable reflection of the above two components in economic calculations.

Financial forecasting allows us to identify and rationally use reserves for economic growth.

Competent forecasting allows you to identify market development trends and carry out your activities in accordance with these trends, occupy a leading position in the market and develop successfully, which is why the state and large companies spend a lot of money on forecasting.

The relevance of the chosen topic is explained by the fact that forecasting is the basis for the successful construction of a financial (and any other system). The more successful and accurate the forecast is, the more effective the subsequent result of any field of activity will be. However, financial forecasting is perhaps the most important aspect of the entire forecasting system.

Russian state financial forecast

The purpose of the course work is to study the essence of financial forecasts, their types, as well as ways of improvement.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

study theoretical foundations constructing financial forecasts;

analyze the main types of financial forecasts;

consider ways to improve the financial forecast system.

The object of the study is a system for constructing financial forecasts.

The information base for writing coursework is textbooks, periodicals, Internet resources, research results, economic periodicals.

When writing the course work, general scientific methods and techniques were used, such as scientific abstraction, modeling, analysis and synthesis, grouping and comparison methods.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for constructing financial forecasts

1.1 The essence and role of the financial forecast

The financial management policy in the state requires mandatory forecasting of financial indicators at all levels. In financial forecasting at the macro level, regional and at the enterprise (firm, company) level there is much in common: the same type of financial and economic indicators used in the financial forecast (volume cost and exchange rate indicators), the same type of set of financial indicators that the forecast is aimed at (profit, gross income, net profit, net income, taxes, deductions from profits to extra-budgetary funds, other income and expenses), the similarity of methodology and forecasting methods and the form in which the results of financial forecasts are presented (balance sheet form).

Forecasting is related to a broader concept - foresight. Foresight is ahead of the reflection of reality and is based on knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking. Depending on the degree of specificity and the nature of the impact on the course of the processes under study, the following forms are distinguished: hypothesis, forecast, plan.

A hypothesis characterizes scientific foresight; the initial basis for constructing a hypothesis is the theory and the patterns discovered on its basis and the cause-and-effect relationships of the functioning and development of the objects under study. At the hypothesis level, their qualitative characteristics are given, expressing general patterns of behavior.

A forecast is understood as a system of scientifically based ideas about the possible states of an object in the future. A forecast, compared to a hypothesis, has much greater certainty, since it is based not only on qualitative, but also on quantitative indicators. more reliable than the hypothesis. At the same time, the forecast is ambiguous and has a probabilistic and multivariate nature. The process of developing a forecast is called forecasting.

Forms of foresight are closely related in their manifestations to each other, representing successive, specific stages of knowledge of the behavior of an object in the future.

The most important means for this is the forecast as a link between general scientific foresight and the plan.

The forms of combination of forecast and plan can be very different; a forecast can precede the development of a plan, follow it (forecasting the consequences of a decision made in a plan), be carried out in the process of developing a plan, independently play the role of a plan, especially in large-scale economic systems (region, state), when it is impossible to ensure accurate determination of indicators.

Planning is aimed at justifying the adoption and practical implementation of management decisions. The purpose of forecasting is, first of all, to create scientific prerequisites for their implementation.

Forecasting of economic processes is carried out in close unity with other types of forecasting: social, political, demographic, scientific and technical, development of the natural resource base, etc.

Before starting the planning process, as a rule, a preliminary analysis of the development trends of the object in question is carried out, possible options for the course of the process are developed when external and internal factors change within certain limits, in order to offer one of them or several of the most reasonable ones for further selection . These functions are usually implemented through a forecast.

The practical manifestation of the role of financial forecasting is reflected in the following. Large national economic complexes, as well as enterprises, banks, and financial markets are largely guided by the magnitude of changes in the financial indicators of flows in the economy associated with the country's budget system. The budget system is not free from taking into account the breadth and financial power of private commercial business, the possibilities of increasing or decreasing the volume of cash flows in a given territory.

Financial policy is directly or indirectly oriented and formed based on the announced current and projected actions of the state, its financial and credit systems, accuracy in terms of timing and completeness in terms of the volume of fulfillment of budgetary and monetary obligations of commercial banks, the likelihood of changes in tax, accounting, export-import and customs environment.

The central problem of preparing a consolidated forecast of the country's financial parameters and carrying out financial planning at enterprises is the lack of an acceptable database of the past that serves as the basis for any forecast. The fact is that existing budget execution reports used in forecasting do not fully reflect the diverse and constant changes in the ratio of economic sectors, prices, inflation and other factors.

Thus, forecast estimates of budget parameters today cannot objectively rely on the reliability of the existing average trends in socio-economic development.

Forecasting cash flows taking into account the level of inflation is one of the primary tasks of budget forecasting. The budget system executes the revenue portion of its budgets in prices actually in effect in the budget year, i.e. in nominal cash flows. These budgets for the coming year are drawn up in real terms. All other things being equal, the level of inflation that must be taken into account in budget forecasting can be represented as the actual difference between nominal and real cash flows in the year the budget is executed. Meanwhile, when developing the country's budgets over all the years of reform, the level of inflation was not always fully taken into account, which made it possible to somewhat improve the actual balance of its income and expenses against the approved one.

Financial forecasting underlies not only budget planning, understood as a set of interrelated processes of formation of federal and regional budgets for the coming year, but also current control over the main parameters of the approved budget, when there is no reporting data on the implementation of the country’s main financial plan. The long-term practice of budget forecasting is characterized by a very accurate monthly assessment of the expected execution of approved budget revenues on a cumulative basis from the beginning of the budget year. Estimates of expected budget revenues are often made to within 0.1% of actual reported revenues. However, such an assessment is not an end in itself. No less important is the other side of current assessments of the progress of budget execution, related to the identification of savings and additional features implementation of government expenditures, as well as searching for and taking into account previously unforeseen, other budgetary opportunities or troubles. In budgetary practice, this can only be achieved on the basis of a continuous process of clarifying preliminary or expected forecasts of key financial and budgetary indicators. All other things being equal, ensuring the continuity of forecasting the main budget parameters leads to a consistent approach of the preliminary (expected) forecast to the base one, that is, the most probable one. So, the role of financial forecasting in the economy of a country and an enterprise is undeniable.

1.2 Financial forecasting methods

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, in domestic science - no more than twenty.

Thus, depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups:

) Methods of expert assessments, which involve a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods. The application of these methods in practice usually involves using the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, and production managers of an enterprise or government agency. This usually ensures that the decision is made in the easiest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made.

) Stochastic methods that assume a probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the indicators being studied. The likelihood of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading position in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is to study trends in sales volumes by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to the influence of random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

The first situation - the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is necessary to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about identifying a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main ones being simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

The second situation - the presence of a spatial aggregate - occurs if for some reason there is no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case. (12.141].

) Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic. A clear example serves as a profit and loss statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a strictly determined factor model that connects the resultant attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, level of costs, level of tax rates, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of government revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

1.3 Review of basic forecasting methods

1) Modeling methods and economic-mathematical methods

Forecasting economic and social processes using models includes the development of a model, its experimental analysis, comparison of the results of forecast calculations based on the model with actual data on the state of an object or process, adjustment and refinement of the model.

The methods of economic and mathematical modeling include the following methods:

matrix models (statistical and dynamic),

optimal planning models,

economic-statistical,

multifactor models,

econometric models.

) Method of economic analysis. The essence of the method of economic analysis is that an economic process or phenomenon is divided into its component parts and the mutual connection and influence of these parts on each other and on the course of development of the entire process is revealed. Analysis allows you to reveal the essence of the process, determine the patterns of its changes in the forecast (planning) period, and comprehensively assess the possibilities and ways to achieve your goals. In the process of economic analysis, techniques such as comparison, groupings, the index method are used, balance calculations are carried out, and normative and economic-mathematical methods are used.

) Balance sheet method. The balance method involves the development of balances, which are a system of indicators in which one part, characterizing resources by source of receipt, is equal to the other part, showing the distribution (use) in all directions of their consumption.

IN transition period The role of forecast balances developed at the macro level is increasing in relation to market relations: the balance of payments, the balance of state income and expenditure, the balance of monetary income and expenditure of the population, the consolidated balance of labor resources, the balance of supply and demand. The results of balance sheet calculations serve as the basis for the formation of structural, social, fiscal and monetary policies, as well as employment and foreign economic activity policies. Balance sheets are also used to identify imbalances in the current period, reveal unused reserves and justify new proportions.

) Normative method. The normative method is one of the main forecasting methods. In modern conditions, it has begun to be given particular importance in connection with the use of a number of norms and standards as regulators of the economy. The essence of the normative method lies in the feasibility study of forecasts, plans, programs using norms and standards. With their help, the most important proportions are substantiated, the development of material production and non-production spheres is substantiated, and the economy is regulated.

1.4 Areas of application and stages of financial forecasting

Let's consider the specifics of the areas of application and stages of financial forecasting at various economic levels.

The use of material and intangible resources in the conditions of commodity-money relations is accompanied by the movement of funds, during which economic transactions are carried out between the subjects of economic relations. Such transactions in most cases represent the exchange of goods and services for financial assets (sale for money) or financial assets for other financial assets (sale of securities for money).

The set of economic transactions over a certain period of time is referred to as a flow. The term stock (resource) is also used, reflecting the residual value of any indicator at a given point in time. Flows are considered as non-financial (real) and financial.

Non-financial flows refer to transactions that occur in the process of production, acquisition of goods or services; financial includes changes in financial assets and liabilities.

Under the conditions of the functioning of the command-administrative system, the movement of commodity and cash flows was viewed through the prism of a rigidly planned organization of the reproduction process. Market relations are characterized by freer movement of goods, services, capital, and labor. The redistribution of funds from industry to industry is carried out through the financial resources market.

The market for financial resources performs many different functions. The main ones are the movement of financial resources from one industry to another and thereby ensuring structural proportions and balances and their movement to more effective areas of application.

From the above we can conclude that finance is a system of economic relations regarding the formation, distribution and use of funds by all business entities, or a set of economic transactions associated with changes in the assets and liabilities of funds.

Financial resources characterize the financial state of the economy and at the same time are a source of its development. There are centralized (at the state level) and decentralized (at the level of enterprises, organizations, associations) financial resources. Effective management of financial resources requires forecasting and planning.

The financial plans and forecasts (programs) being developed represent a set of measures aimed at achieving specified macroeconomic goals. The formation of a financial plan includes the calculation of final indicators at the end of the period for the main sectors of the economy.

At the first stage of forming a financial plan, a so-called basic program is developed, which is based on the assumption that the country’s economic policy will not be subject to changes. The purpose of the basic program is to answer the question of whether existing problems are solved on their own, remain the same, or become worse.

At the second stage, changes in economic policy are considered, taking into account the specifics of a particular period, depending on state policy. This procedure is the basis for the preparation of a regulatory program, which should be based on the use of a specific set of activities designed to achieve the required goals. A comparison of the basic and normative programs allows us to judge the expected results of the implementation of this set of measures.

The process of developing a financial plan can be represented as follows:

assessment of economic problems;

formulating goals and developing a set of measures;

preparation of forecasts for individual sectors (industries) of the economy;

analysis of the feasibility of additional resources, the need for them and identification of their sources.

The financial system must provide expenses for the production of gross domestic (national) product Y in the form of funds for consumption. C, investment I, public procurement G, expenditures on trade with the outside world (net exports E - M), i.e.

C+I+G+(E-M)

On the basis of oriented goals and activities, it is possible to forecast macroeconomic parameters for the period under review.

Studying the dynamics of indicators, defining measures and goals, developing plans taking into account the internal state of the economy and foreign economic prospects, considering the plans of individual industries and their interconnection, establishing maximum values of monetary restrictions - all this is a continuous chain of iterations to develop the optimal version of the financial plan in order to ensure reproductive processes in economics.

Main stages of forecasting:

Determining the purpose and goals of the forecast. At the same time, they set the required level of detail (by region, product, etc.), a reasonable amount of resources spent on forecasting (cost of software, etc.), and accuracy.

Select the duration of the forecast: short-term or long-term, or more precisely, for example, for the next year or for the next three years.

Choosing a forecasting method.

Collection of relevant data and forecasting.

Identification of all assumptions that underlie the forecast and their analysis.

Checking the forecast for applicability, for which a rating system is developed.

Figure 1 - Stages of financial forecasting

Many managers involved in financial planning turn to third parties for help.

There is a growing industry in the West whose companies specialize in preparing macroeconomic and industry forecasts for corporate clients. Moreover, the most powerful forecasting economic centers abroad, as a rule, are built into business in the form of analytical departments of the largest companies and investment banks. The domestic school of market-driven macroeconomic and industry forecasting is just in its infancy. Very professional departments of some leading Russian banks, investment companies and leading corporations from the real sector of the economy are beginning to form. However, at the moment there are very few of them - no more than two dozen. Meanwhile, it is important for business to navigate macroeconomics today.

Thus, this chapter examined the basics of financial forecasting, the essence and concept of financial forecasts. A forecast is a prediction, a prediction based primarily on some information about certain data. Having studied the methods of financial forecasts, we can say that all forecasting methods are divided into three large groups: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The basic ones are: modeling methods and economic-mathematical methods, the method of economic analysis, the balance method, the normative method.

It is important to note that there are quite a lot of areas of application of financial forecasts, including the budget system, the banking system, the sphere of state planning, various economic entities, etc.

Financial forecasting involves a number of successive stages:

determining the purpose and objectives of the forecast, choosing the duration of the forecast, choosing forecasting methods, collecting relevant data and forecasting, defining all assumptions, checking the forecast for applicability.

Chapter 2. Analysis of the main types of financial forecast

2.1 Financial budget forecast

The central place in the system of financial balances is occupied by the state budget. It, unlike the consolidated financial balance sheet, is approved annually in the form of a law and represents a system of economic relations for the systematic formation and use of a centralized fund of state funds. The state budget consists of centralized and local budgets, which include the budgets of regions, districts, cities, and towns. In addition to the state budget, centralized state funds also include extra-budgetary centralized funds, the list and conditions of which may be revised.

In form, the state budget is a balance sheet, the revenue part of which is taxes, non-tax revenues, and the expenditure part is the costs of social services, economic needs (subsidies to enterprises, subsidies, expenses for the implementation of government programs), costs of maintaining government bodies and administration, payments on public debt, etc.

The concept of government balance provides for the equality of the amounts of all government expenditures and revenues. However, in practice, the expenditure side of the budget often exceeds the amount of income. It is important to prevent an excessive gap between them and to provide possible reserves for its elimination. Typically, sources of covering the deficit are divided into internal and external loans. The total deficit that is eliminated through external borrowing is estimated depending on how such funds are planned to be used. An external loan used to increase domestic spending will have a stimulating effect on the country's economy. If external borrowing leads to increased spending abroad, it will not have an immediate impact on domestic demand.

Domestic sources of financing include loans from the central bank, commercial banks and the non-banking sector. Net borrowing (the difference between the total amount of loans and the amount of repayment or repayment) from the central bank increases the volume of the money supply.

Deficit financing forecasts are usually carried out along three main lines: external financing, domestic non-bank borrowing, domestic borrowing and the banking system.

Let's consider the main parameters and characteristics of the federal budget for 2013-2015.

The dynamics of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2013 and for the planning period of 2014 and 2015 are characterized by a decrease in revenues compared to 2012 and their stabilization at the level of 36.6-36.2% of GDP in 2013-2015, a decrease in overall the volume of expenditures from 37.9% to 35.9% of GDP and a deficit in 2013 and 2014, and a surplus in 2015. The share of the federal budget in budget system revenues (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will decrease from 55.1% in 2012 to 51.6% in 2015, in expenses (excluding interbudgetary transfers) - will increase from 36.5% in 2012 to 37.5% in 2015.

The share of budget revenues of state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) in the total revenue of the budget system of the Russian Federation is projected to increase from 16.2% in 2012 to 18.3% in 2015. The share of expenditures of state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation in the total expenditures of the budget system will decrease from 26.2% in 2012 to 25.6% in 2015.

The share of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and territorial compulsory health insurance funds in the total revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will increase from 28.8% in 2012 to 30.1% in 2015, the share of expenses will decrease from 37 .3% in 2012 to 36.9% in 2015.

The main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation are presented in Appendix 1.

The main characteristics of the federal budget for 2013 and for the planning period of 2014 and 2015 were formed on the basis of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2013-2015 and budget rules put into effect on January 1, 2013.

The dynamics of federal budget revenues in 2008-2012 is characterized by a decrease from 22.5% of GDP in 2008 to 18.9% of GDP in 2009 and 18.4% of GDP in 2010; in 2011-2012, revenues increased up to 20.8% and 20.9% of GDP, respectively, but did not reach the level of 2008 (22.5%). Over the period 2008-2012, oil and gas revenues decreased by 0.1% of GDP and non-oil and gas revenues by 1.5% of GDP. The decrease in non-oil and gas revenues is mainly due to changes in tax legislation (reduction in the federal corporate income tax rate from 1 January 2009 from 6.5% to 2.0% and abolition of the unified social tax from 1 January 2010).

In 2013-2015, federal budget revenues are expected to decrease from 20.9% of GDP in 2012 to 18.8% in 2013, with a further decrease by 2015 to 18.7% of GDP. At the same time, oil and gas revenues decrease by 2.0% of GDP (from 10.5% of GDP in 2012 to 8.5% of GDP in 2015) and non-oil and gas revenues by 0.2% of GDP (from 10.4% up to 10.2% of GDP).

Detailed dynamics of federal budget revenues are presented in Appendix 2.

The decrease in the projected receipt of oil and gas revenues as a percentage of GDP in 2013 - 2015 compared to 2012 is due to a decrease in the price of Urals oil and taxable volumes of exports of oil and petroleum products, as well as lower rates of growth of the dollar compared to the growth rate of GDP USA in relation to the ruble and taxable oil production volumes.

The decrease in non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget as a percentage of GDP in 2013 - 2015 compared to 2012 is mainly due to the projected decrease in revenues from import customs duties and export customs duties on other export goods (with the exception of hydrocarbons). The decrease in the forecast for these federal budget revenue sources is due to a decrease in the weighted average rates of import customs duties and the average rates of export customs duties on other export goods in connection with the Russian Federation’s accession to the World Trade Organization.

Federal budget revenues for 2011 in the report amounted to 11367.7 billion rubles, in 2012, taking into account changes, 12677.0 billion rubles, which exceeds revenues for 2011, for 2013 the forecast amount of revenues will be 12395.4 billion rubles, which exceeds previous years; for 2014 the budget revenue forecast is 13642.2 billion rubles, and in 2015 budget revenues will be 15223.7 billion rubles.

By 2015, it is planned to increase federal budget expenditures in nominal and real terms.

In 2012, budget expenditures amounted to 12,745.1 billion rubles; in 2013, budget expenditures are planned in the amount of 13,387.3 billion rubles, which exceeds the amount of income for the reporting year by 982.9 billion rubles, which is a negative trend for budget and leads to its deficit. In 2014, expenses are projected to be 14,101.9 billion rubles, which also exceeds the projected income for 2014; in 2015, expenses are expected to increase by 1,214.1 billion rubles, which is a significant change, but as in previous years a discrepancy between income and expenses is expected; expenses in 2015 will exceed income by 92.3 billion rubles, which will lead to a federal budget deficit. The federal budget deficit will be financed primarily through government borrowing and funds received from the privatization of federal property.

2.2 Consolidated balance of financial resources

In order for the state to carry out its functions in regulating financial resources, it is necessary to have information about financial flows in the economy, which form financial resources. Such information can be provided by a consolidated financial balance sheet, the compilation of which characterizes the volume of funds, their distribution and use, and an assessment of financial relationships between sectors of the economy. This makes it possible to determine the trends and patterns emerging in financial relationships between sectors of the economy and to assess the effectiveness of the state’s tax and credit policies.

The consolidated financial balance sheet is a government tool that allows you to determine the optimal proportions for the distribution and expenditure of financial resources, and to achieve a balance of financial resources with costs. It includes: the balance of monetary income and expenditure of the population; state financial balance; monetary balance; balance of payments; financial balance of the non-financial sector of the economy (enterprises producing products and services). The consolidated financial balance sheet allows you to get a holistic view of the processes of formation, replenishment and use of financial resources within the country, as well as financial relations with the outside world.

The financial resources of the economy are formed as a set of financial resources of sectors. They are created mainly in the non-financial and financial sectors and appear in the form of profit, income and depreciation charges. Financial resources of the non-financial sector can be replenished through government subsidies and bank loans. The funds raised by financial institutions can be funds from the state budget in the form of capital investments to government agencies, funds from enterprises, and the population.

Financial resources of the sector of public institutions are formed from centralized funds of the state budget, resources of social protection funds, employment and other extra-budgetary funds. The main source of financial resources of the state are taxes.

In the “Households” sector of the economy, financial resources include income received from running households, individual entrepreneurship, property in the form of dividends and interest, etc.

The financial resources of the Rest of the World sector are formed from income received from the export of products and services, subsidies on production and imports, business income, property income, and other income and receipts.

The use of financial resources of the public sector is carried out through the expenditure parts of the state budget and extra-budgetary funds.

In the household sector, it is planned to spend financial resources on paying taxes (income, land, real estate), mandatory payments, voluntary contributions, growth of deposits, purchase of securities and consumption. These parameters represent items of the expenditure side of the balance of monetary income and expenditure of the population.

The financial resources of the Rest of the World sector are used to pay taxes on production and imports, final consumption of households located abroad, long-term investments in production and expenses associated with the alienation of property income.

In the formation of the consolidated financial balance of the state special meaning has a monetary balance. Income actually generated in the national economy becomes financial resources and can be used in this capacity only if they are represented by appropriate funds. Therefore, the dynamics of the money supply in circulation must correspond to the dynamics of changes in financial resources.

“Money hunger,” or the discrepancy between the money supply and the volume of income, aggravates crisis phenomena and stimulates a decline in production to a level adequate to the available money supply.

2.3 Economic development forecast for 2013-2015

The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2013 and for the planning period of 2014 and 2015 was developed on the basis of scenario conditions for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation approved by the Government of the Russian Federation based on the guidelines, priorities of socio-economic development formulated in the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2020, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012 and the tasks set in the Message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated December 22, 2011, in the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation on budget policy in 2013-2015.

The forecast takes into account the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in January-July 2012, as well as the forecast indicators of federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia.

The Forecast was developed on an option basis, consisting of three main (moderately optimistic, conservative and fixed growth scenarios) and two additional (negative and optimistic) options.

The moderately optimistic option reflects a relative increase in the competitiveness of the Russian economy (which is manifested in an increasing trend towards import substitution) and an improvement in the investment climate with a moderate increase in government spending on infrastructure development and an accelerated increase in wages in the public sector in 2014-2015. GDP growth in 2013-2015 is projected at 3.7-4.5 percent, and inflation at 5-6%.

The conservative option assumes maintaining low competitiveness in relation to imports and a restrained recovery in investment activity while reducing real government spending on development. The scenario assumes stagnation of government investment demand and real wages of public sector employees and military pay. Annual economic growth rates in 2013-2015. are estimated at 2.7-3.3%.

The accelerated growth scenario is characterized by the intensification of all available economic growth factors to achieve the target parameter of labor productivity growth by 2018 by 1.5 times relative to the 2011 level in conditions of relatively stable world prices. The scenario requires a significant increase in investment and an increase in its volume to at least 25% of GDP by 2015. This assumes a qualitative breakthrough in improving the business climate and an intensive influx of foreign capital, as well as increased use of national savings combined with increased government spending aimed at developing infrastructure and a new economy. The scenario also assumes more favorable demographic trends. Average annual economic growth rates in 2013-2018. increase to 6.1%, in 2016-2018. GDP growth should reach almost 7% per year. The scenario is characterized by increased macroeconomic imbalances.

Debts of the private and public sectors will increase significantly, and the current account balance after 2015 will be in persistent negative values. This will increase the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks.

An additional negative scenario is characterized by a deterioration in the dynamics of the global economy (on the verge of stagnation in developed countries), although it does not imply a resumption of recession. Under these conditions, the price of oil is expected to decline to $80 per barrel by 2013, and in 2014-2015. a slight increase in oil prices is expected by 1-2% per year.

Given the greater dependence of the Russian economy on foreign economic conditions, this scenario exacerbates the risks for the stability of the banking system, balance of payments and general level confidence of economic agents. The growth of the Russian economy is projected to slow down to 0.5% in 2013, with a significant weakening of the ruble exchange rate in 2014-2015. resumption of growth to 2-3 percent.

At the same time, the possibility remains that the deepening crisis in the Eurozone could seriously affect the American economy and develop into a new wave of a large-scale banking and global economic crisis. This new wave may be accompanied by a drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel. In this case, the Russian economy may experience a decline in GDP, but the scale of the crisis will be less than in 2009.

The optimistic option reflects the continuation of relatively high growth rates of the world economy and world oil prices - in 2013-2014. at the level of 110-115 US dollars per barrel, with growth accelerating to 120 dollars per barrel in 2015. GDP growth rates in 2013-2015 are estimated at 3.9-4.6% per year.

Forecast for the development of the main macroeconomic and social indicators of Russia in 2013-2015. presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Projected macroeconomic and social indicators for 2013-2015

Indicators 2013 2014 2015 GDP growth rate (%) 3.74,34.5 Investment growth (%) 7.27,37.9 Retail trade (growth in %) 5.45,85.8 Export ($ billion. ) 500522545 Import ($ billion) 375407440 Industrial production (%) 3.53.73.7 Dollar exchange rate (rubles per $) 32.43333.7 Salaries (real, growth in %) 3.75.55.9 Inflation (% at the end of the year) 5 - 64 - 54 - 5URALS oil ($ per barrel) 97101104 Income (real, growth in %) 3.75,25.3

Having analyzed the projected macroeconomic and social indicators for 2013-2015, we can say that GDP growth is projected at 3.7-4.5 percent, and inflation at 5-6%. Annual economic growth rates are estimated at 2.7-3.3%. Decline in oil prices by 2013, in 2014-2015. a slight increase in oil prices is expected by 1-2% per year.

Chapter 3. Improving the financial forecast system

3.1 Forecast problems public finance in the Russian Federation

As such, there was no financial forecasting system at the macroeconomic level in the Russian Federation. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of a financial forecasting institute. These and perhaps many other factors prevented the creation of a state forecasting institute. Therefore, the initiative to create a forecasting institute had to come from outside, which ultimately happened.

The initiator of the creation of the Institute of Social and Economic Forecasting was the European Union program - TACIS "Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development." This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000. Donor services (grant) were provided by the European Economic Society for a total amount of 1,135,265 USD.

As part of this TACIS project on the "Long-term Scientific Forecast of Economic and Social Development", the Ministry of Finance and the Center for Economic and Social Reforms formed a Policy Assessment and Planning Group (PAG). The OPP Group is designed to deal with long-term issues of the country's economy and develop foresight regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PPR team received an analytical framework to assist in the construction of scenarios and economic policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.

A forecasting system cannot fully take into account all the determining factors postulated by theories. Issues related to data availability need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex. However, it should cover the most important factors and take into account the following basic relationships:

due to the fact that the Russian Federation is a small open economy, interactions with the global economy and the impact of international competitiveness should be taken into account;

due to the fact that the Russian Federation is a developing country, capital and know-how become the main limiting factor for growth and increased productivity;

being a developing country, if the Russian economy grows, it will face the fact that its production functions, industry structure and positions will change significantly;

In any economy there are strong links between productivity, income levels and the level and structure of demand, which are changed through fiscal and economic policies.

At the microeconomic level, the main problem can be the inaccuracy of forecasts with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and time catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It must be taken into account that the accuracy of forecasts is influenced by the human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes drawing up the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy of forecasting depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of financial forecasting method and the implementation of strict financial control.

.2 Improving the financial forecast system

Ways to solve problems of financial forecasting and improve it logically lie in eliminating problems, i.e. First of all, these are the following actions:

) the creation of special research centers for forecasts in the Republic of Tatarstan at the level of government agencies, and at the microeconomic level - the creation of financial forecasting or planning departments;

) training highly qualified specialists in this field or improving the skills of existing specialists both in government agencies and at enterprises, conducting seminars, trainings, advanced training courses, etc.;

) the use of methodological foundations of financial forecasting, based on scientific developments of developed countries and world experience, as well as practical experience in the development of forecasts, plans, programs and their implementation, i.e. implementation modern methods computer modeling, use of modern econometric, statistical and mathematical methods;

) strengthening connections between the academic environment, government agencies and enterprises, exchange of information and experience.

Some shifts in this direction have already begun. Moreover, the initiators are Western experts, so the process of introducing socio-economic forecasting is proceeding at a fairly fast pace. For example, the Long-Term Economic and Social Forecast System (LESPS), developed within the TASIS project, is successfully used in economic policy.

The forecasting system should:

Cover a forecasting horizon from 3 to 20 years;

Consider issues of growth, employment;

Economic and social transformation;

Have a regional breakdown of GDP and employment.

The state budget forecast - the Medium-Term Budget Forecast (MTB) - is also being constructed quite successfully and optimistically. The purpose of the SPB is to give the budget process a strategic direction and make it more predictable by concentrating budget allocations in priority areas identified by the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS).

Conclusion

Successful financial forecasting is the key to the successful construction of a financial (and any other) system. This determined the relevance of the chosen topic. During the study, we found out that the more successful and accurate the forecast is, the more effective the subsequent result of any field of activity will be.

The course work analyzes the theoretical foundations of financial forecasting, scope of application, types of financial forecasts, analyzes the forecast of economic development of Russia for 2013-2015, and suggests ways to improve the financial forecasting system.

A forecast is a prediction, a prediction based primarily on some information about certain data. Financial forecasts are a complex multi-stage and integrative process, during which a wide range of various socio-economic and scientific and technical problems must be solved, for which it is necessary to use a wide variety of methods in combination. In the theory and practice of planning activities over the past years, a significant set of different methods for developing forecasts and plans has been accumulated.

We can say that all forecasting methods are divided into three large groups: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The basic ones are: modeling methods and economic-mathematical methods, the method of economic analysis, the balance method, the normative method.

Financial forecasting involves a number of sequential stages: determining the purpose and goals of the forecast, choosing the duration of the forecast, choosing forecasting methods, collecting relevant data and forecasting, determining all assumptions, checking the forecast for applicability.

The main types of financial forecast are - consolidated financial balance, forecasts of income, expenses and individual financial items that form the budget, i.e. forecasting the financial budget, as well as monetary forecasts, forecasting the demand for money, forecasting the exchange rate.

Having analyzed the economic development forecast for 2013-1015. It should be noted that, according to the basic forecast of socio-economic development of Russia in 2013-2015, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, GDP growth in 2013 will be 3.7%, and by 2015 it will increase to 4.5%, while inflation will be in 2013 - 5-6%, and by 2015 a decrease to 4-5% is predicted.

It should be noted that financial forecasting has a number of problems; the methodology of financial forecasts and forecasting in the Russian Federation requires further practical development.

References

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Appendix 1

Main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation

Indicator 2009201020112012201320142015 Income, total 13,321,715,675,221,218,123,018,224,084,926,543,429,514.5%% of GDP 34,334,738,938,036,636.2 36.2 including: Federal budget 7,337.88 305.411 367.712 677.012 395.413 642.215 223.7 Budgets of state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation 3,506.44 814.56 162 ,67 168.27 768.08 434.79 269.9 - including income excluding interbudgetary transfers 1,373.62 034.83 593.43 723.04 363.44 867.45 401.0 Consolidated budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation 5,924 ,26 534.17 641.07 923.88 562.99 201.09 995.6 - including income excluding interbudgetary transfers 4 438.15 136.96 009.36 618.27 326.18 033.88 889, 8Territorial compulsory health insurance funds 551.3574.9904.4871.71 031.81 193.11 408.2 - including income excluding interbudgetary transfers 172.2198.1247.70.00.00.00.0 Expenses, total 16 027,117 570,520 357,622 802,024 949,226 865,829 280,5%% of GDP 41,338,937,337,637,936,635,9 including: Federal budget 9,660,110 117,510 925,612 74 5,113 387,314 101,915 316.0 - including expenses excluding interbudgetary transfers 6,066.75 981.66 747.18 316.89 107.59 855.010 975.5 Budgets of state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation 3,555.04 779.55 730.16 876.27 517.28 214.68 917.8 - including expenses excluding interbudgetary transfers 3,425.64 670 .95 420.85 985.56 466.47 002.57 490.6 Consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation 6 253.56 634.17 676.17 931.58 686.19 283.810 021.4 - including expenses excluding interbudgetary transfers 5 984.26 343.87 306.37 628.08 343.58 815.29 406.2 Territorial compulsory health insurance funds 550.6574.2883.4871.71 031.81 193.11 408.2 Deficit (-) / surplus (+ ), total -2,705.4-1,895.3860.5216.2-864.3-322.4234.0%% of GDP -7.0-4.21.60.4-1.3-0, 40.3

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When drawing up a budget, the company concentrates mainly on its expenditure side. At the same time, the least predictable income part remains insufficiently detailed and substantiated. This article is devoted to income forecasting, drawing up and analyzing company development scenarios, as well as describing the main errors that arise in the forecasting process.

The main difference between a forecast and a plan is that are predicted those indicators that the company cannot fully control - sales volume, risks or actions of competitors. To be planned maybe something that is completely within the sphere of influence, for example, expenses. The main goal of forecasting is to be able to evaluate the company’s performance as “successful” or “unsuccessful” not by the indicators (profits, markets, dividends) that exist, but by those that could potentially exist.

The choice of methods used in forecasting depends only on the capabilities of the analyst - these can be either complex mathematical models or intuitive conclusions. The main thing is that the final result obtained from using these methods describes the real situation as accurately as possible. In this article, we will use a standard approach to forecasting, based on the assessment of indicators that directly affect the forecast result.

Revenue forecasting

To predict the amount of revenue, it is necessary to determine the future values of the company's sales volume in physical and monetary terms, and also to understand how they can change depending on the conditions of the external and internal environment.

Decomposition of factors

The company's sales volume indicator is not uniform, as it depends on large number factors (demographic conditions in a given region, the state of industries in which substitute goods are produced, etc.), the values of which may change significantly in the future. Therefore, if we forecast sales based only on historical data, our forecast is likely to be inaccurate. To make a decision regarding future sales, it is necessary to identify all the factors that could affect the forecast (relevant factors) (see Figure 1). If the company is not a monopolist, such factors should include the market share that the company expects to occupy in the time period under consideration.

Personal experience

Sergey Pustovalov, financial director of Talosto company (St. Petersburg)

The Talosto development forecast is compiled for a period of five years, broken down by year and business area, and is calculated in pessimistic, optimistic and most realistic options. The main factors influencing the company's financial forecast are: gross product by sales markets, investments in advertising, actions of competitors, growth of market segments. The target indicator for us is the company's market share - it should grow faster than the market, or at least along with it. Thus, in a pessimistic scenario, the growth of target market segments is considered minimal and amounts to 15% per year.

To determine the dynamics of the external environment, we use not only statistical data, but also forecasts of the State Statistics Committee, data from news agencies, forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, and materials on monitoring industries that are prepared for us by marketing agencies, as well as reviews of investment funds. The total revenue value is obtained by weighing all these indicators.

Forecasting factors

Now we need to build forecasts of relevant factors. If you have statistical information about past dynamics, it is most convenient to use the dependence of the factor on time (trend) as the starting values for the forecast. It can be determined using Excel by plotting a graph, adding a trend line, and deriving an equation for the relationship (see Graph 1).

Then it is necessary to determine how the resulting trend can change under the influence of environmental conditions. To reflect such trends, correction factors are usually used, obtained through analysis of statistical data and information about expected changes. The values of such coefficients must be economically justified (see example). The forecast value of the factor is adjusted by multiplying the forecasts obtained using the trend by correction factors.

The change in a company's market share is calculated in a similar way. However, if the company is not in an aggressive growth stage, the most likely growth rate of the company is equal to the growth rate of the market as a whole. This forecast is then adjusted to take into account factors such as management processes, advertising activity of the company and competitors, changes in product range or technology, etc. If a company is developing aggressively, then growth equal to market growth is a pessimistic forecast.

The result of this stage should be the boundary (pessimistic and optimistic) values of the forecasts of all factors influencing sales volume. Most companies also evaluate a third, “most likely” option, which always lies between two boundary values.

Reference

The easiest way to express the dependence of a factor on time is using a linear dependence:

where Y is the predicted factor,

t — time.

A linear equation does not always accurately reflect economic trends. Thus, as the market becomes saturated, the rate of sales growth decreases. To take this into account, a more complex dependence is used (for example, logarithmic, as was done in our example). You can build it by simply searching through Excel equations that describe the trend. At the same time, the curve of the calculated values will change. As a result, you need to choose a curve that will coincide as closely as possible with the line connecting the actual values of the indicator. For the oil market, for example, such a dependence will be cyclical, and for its correct forecast it will be necessary to determine the period of the cycle.

Revenue forecasting

Revenue forecasts for each year are obtained by weighing (usually by simple multiplication or division, as in our example) the forecast values of relevant factors for each development option.

Example

Company revenue forecasting

Romashka LLC is a rapidly growing company specializing in the wholesale trade of finishing materials and economic class plumbing fixtures. It is necessary to determine the future sales volume until 2006.

Having determined the list of relevant factors, you need to construct predictive values for each of them. Let's consider building a forecast for one of the main facts - the volume of housing construction.

Graph 1. Forecasting the volume of housing construction

Over the past few years, the market has seen an intensive increase in construction volumes and prices for apartments. Half of the analysts believe that the market is “overheated”, and in 2005-2006 people who bought apartments for investment purposes will begin to sell them (pessimistic forecast). It is known that such investors make up 20% of the total number of apartment buyers, so the volume of construction will briefly fall by 40% (since investors will sell their 20% of apartments), and then increase by 20%. Accordingly, the calculated values for the volume of housing construction in 2005 - 2006 must be adjusted, first multiplying by 0.6 and then by 0.8. At the same time, the second half of analysts believe that demand, and, accordingly, the volume of construction will grow by 15% per year (an optimistic forecast), and with the development of mortgage lending, the growth rate will increase over time. Based on the forecasts of banking specialists regarding the number of mortgage loans issued (let’s say this figure for the next 3 years is $4.5 billion, which at the current average price at 1500 US dollars per sq.m. will be 3 million sq.m.), and knowing the current volume of construction (for example, 50 million sq.m.), we can conclude that due to this factor our forecast for 2005-2006 will increase by 6%. The adjustment factor for each year will be 1.03. Let's assume that other factors remain unchanged over the next two years. Then, if the optimistic option is implemented, the market growth as a whole will also be 21%, and if the pessimistic option is implemented, it will be 100 - (0.6 + 0.8) / 2 = -30%.

Now it is necessary to determine how the company's market share will change. To maintain and increase market share in the forecast period, it is planned to replace half of the range of goods sold with plumbing fixtures that are “fashionable.” It is known that the growth rate of consumption of such sanitary ware is 20% per year, with a market growth rate of 5% per year, therefore, the increase in the company’s market share due to the change of half of the assortment will be 7.5% ((20% - 5%) × 50% ) (optimistic option). If the demand for “fashionable” sanitary ware in the future period decreases to 10%, the increase in market share will be 2.5% ((10% - 5%) × 50%).

Let's combine the influence of external and internal factors into a table:

Thus, we received two boundary values for the company’s revenue - 30.08% and -28.25%.

Future scenario

After forecasting revenue, it is necessary to plan the company's expenses. Planning of expenses necessary to ensure the constructed sales forecast occurs using the existing budget model 1. Similar to the income forecast, the expense plan is drawn up in two options - the best and the worst. At the same time, the “best” option is considered when the company allows itself to pay for everything that is planned, and the “worst” option is the austerity regime.

For more information about modeling the company’s activities, see the article “Model for assessing the value of a company: development and application”, No. 12, 2003, p. 10 - Note editorial staff

Personal experience

Sergey Pustovalov

The main internal limitation of development is the funds at the disposal of the company. Therefore, we believe that under an optimistic scenario, the company can grow not only through credit resources, but also through the issue of additional shares or an increase in authorized capital. In a realistic scenario, we focus on our own needs and credits - that is, we “grow as much as we can.” When implementing the pessimistic option, it is considered that attracting capital is difficult.

The company's projected income and expenses are then combined to produce four marginal development options (see Table 2).

For ease of analysis, the main financial reports are built for all such options - BDDS, BDR and balance sheet. Each of the four options is compared with the company's goals and strategy. For example, it is possible that the best-case scenario in terms of income and expenses will lead to the accumulation of accounts receivable and will require additional lending. At the same time, a more cautious strategy—growing sales while saving costs—may allow maintaining financial independence, which for a number of companies is more important than increasing turnover.

The result of this stage should be the most likely scenario for the future of the company, consisting of a set of three forecast reports, as well as a set of measures implemented in the event of positive or negative deviations from it. To identify these deviations in a timely manner, it is necessary to identify a set of control indicators.

Personal experience

Denis Ivanov, General Director of CJSC Financial Reserve (Moscow)

Forecasts of future income are compiled by the heads of revenue-generating departments every six months. As a rule, the future result of their work is expressed by a single value, but the error margin (range of values) is determined. The economic planning department calculates the master plan and indicates the limit values of possible deviations. If there is a probability of an event that significantly affects the forecast value, then the economic planning department determines the values for the case of such a scenario.

These scenarios are processed in the economic planning department, which adds a range of future exchange rates to the forecast data. Then, taking into account future expenses, a payment schedule is determined, after which the accounting department draws up a forecast for net profit and develops tax planning measures.

Selection of benchmarks

The selection of indicators, with the help of which the fulfillment of the forecast will subsequently be analyzed, begins during forecasting and planning of revenue and expenses - then the required market share, prices, physical sales volume, labor productivity, material consumption, etc. are determined. At the next stage, these indicators are adjusted and supplemented with parameters on which the financial result will depend - that is trade margin, accounts receivable turnover, share of transportation costs, profitability, etc. In the process of implementing the forecast, these parameters must be constantly monitored, since their stable change in a positive or negative direction from the planned values will indicate the implementation of one of the forecast options 2. By receiving this data in a timely manner, the company will be able to adjust its actions in accordance with the pre-developed forecast .

(For more information about the company’s key performance indicators, see the article “Enterprise management using the Balanced Scorecard system”, “Financial Director” No. 3, 2003, p. 12 - Note editorial staff)

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

For forecasting to be effective, forecast performance data must be used to make decisions based on the current situation, and not based on the results of the past. At the same time, it is impossible to force departments to take into account expenses and income, for example, in Excel. To do this, you need a specialized program that allows you to collect data, plan and analyze it, and conduct plan-factual analysis until the end of the reporting period. Otherwise, there will be no efficiency, and any forecast will lose meaning, since all opportunities for its implementation will be lost.

In companies for which most of the costs are constant (like ours, for example), there is another “brake” for operational management within the framework of the forecast. If the sales plan is not met, I cannot fire half of the staff in order to reduce costs. You can only respond with variable costs. This problem can be partially solved by converting fixed costs into variable ones - that is, using outsourcing, for example, in an IT service, but this cannot be done in all cases. As a result, the work scenarios for our company are quite obvious: if we earned 20% less than planned during the period, then the final amount in the BDR will change by a maximum of 15%, because I can save at most 5% of the pre-approved amount.

Sergey Pustovalov

One of the key indicators for us is the price of raw materials, but the ability to compensate for rising prices, for example, for flour, is quite limited. Thus, each area of our activity has a directorate, which manages the work of the area and predicts how it will develop in the future. It is hardly worth reducing these directorates due to the current decline in profits. Rather, we will try to reduce direct costs or increase the price of products.

Forecasting errors

Forecasting errors are most often associated with incorrect determination of the input parameters of the forecast model.

Assessment of one development option

This error is perhaps the most common. Marketing analysts of most companies (at least in Russia) do not consider it necessary to calculate options for the development of events. IN best case scenario, planning occurs by product groups (assortment), regions or sales channels, while for each planning direction only one set of forecast parameters (price and volume) is calculated, which, as a rule, is underestimated “to be on the safe side.” Subsequently, when assessing the sensitivity of the financial model to input parameters, financiers can analyze changes in the company's key financial indicators in relation to these parameters. But if the values of such indicators still remain within acceptable limits, everything ends with analysis. And if a pessimistic development scenario is realized, the company will not be able to track the negative trend in time and take measures to correct it.

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

We tried to build an annual budget taking into account possible scenarios, but practice has shown that this does not make much sense for our company. The external environment is changing too quickly, especially legislation and governing bodies. For example, recently the functions of regulating the alcohol industry were transferred to the Ministry of Industry and Energy on one day, and then to the Ministry of Agriculture. If the situation remains the same, then we can predict an increase in income, since the Ministry of Agriculture will begin to build barriers to imports, the cost of imported alcohol will increase, and the share of our income in the cost will not be so noticeable - therefore, it can be increased. Forecasting revenues and looking at scenarios on an ongoing basis makes sense in industries with a stable environment (for example, mining or retail).

Most often, when forecasting, the extrapolation method is used - that is, determining the relationship between model parameters based on past data and transferring these dependencies to the future. For example, if construction volumes grew by 15% annually, then it is assumed that this year the growth will be the same. However, such forecasting does not take into account current market trends. Therefore, extrapolation is only suitable as a tool for “preparing” forecast values, including its use for calculating seasonal fluctuations in demand and prices.

Personal experience

Evgeny Dubinin, deputy financial director of the construction company LEK-Moscow

It is wrong to use only mathematical methods, even the most complex ones, when forecasting, since in this case the economic meaning of events is not taken into account. If a mathematician who understood nothing about economics had made a forecast of the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 1998, he would have constructed a relationship that did not take into account the current situation with the country’s internal debt. The same forecast made taking this factor into account would give a completely different picture.

Underestimating or ignoring factors

This error manifests itself when trying to take into account future changes in the external and internal environment of the company. Often, relevant factors are selected in a simplistic manner and both the individual and the combined impact of such factors are downplayed. For example, for real estate, relevant factors will not only be an increase in personal income and a decrease in interest rates mortgage loans, but also demographic factors.

Incomplete accounting of proposed changes

The proposed changes must be adequately taken into account in both the revenue and expenditure parts. If this is not done, then a situation may arise where the receipt of additional income will be planned without taking into account additional expenses. Most often this concerns semi-fixed expenses: advertising, communications, etc. There is also the opposite option, when a company plans to cut costs, believing that this will not affect income in any way.

The desire to pass off wishful thinking

Many people, due to their psychological characteristics, do not want to face the truth, so often business leaders see threats to the business, but do not want to consider them as such. Preferring an optimistic view of developments can lead to a decrease in the company's readiness to resist negative trends - both in the internal and external environment of the enterprise.

Introduction 3

1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting 4

2. Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels 8

3. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in Russia 11

Conclusion 14

References 15

INTRODUCTION

Financial forecasting is one of the most important stages of financial planning. The purpose of financial forecasting is to link material-material and financial-cost proportions in the economy in the future; assessment of the expected volume of financial resources; determination of financial support options; identification of possible deviations from accepted designs.
Financial forecasting is carried out at three levels of the economy: national, territorial, and economic entities. At the national level, calculations are made with the help of which the country’s financial resources are formed, the directions of their development are determined, and a consolidated financial balance of the state is compiled. Calculations allow us to more correctly develop the economic and financial policies of the state. Financial forecasting is linked to the achievements of scientific and technological progress, forecasts of changes in resources, prices, etc.
The main feature of financial forecasting is variability, which allows the executive body to more accurately assess the problem, choose the optimal solution, and foresee the consequences of decisions made. Financial forecasting is carried out similarly at other territorial levels (subjects of the Russian Federation, municipalities).

1. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING
1.1. The concept and tasks of financial forecasting
Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future 1 .
Financial forecasting reveals the expected future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for carrying out financial activities and represents a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out to scientifically substantiate the indicators of financial plans and contribute to the development of a concept for financial development for the forecast period, includes assessing the expected volume of financial resources and determining the preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, government bodies and local self-government.
The objectives of financial forecasting are:
- linking material and financial-cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future;
- determination of the sources of formation and volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;
- justification of directions for the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on an analysis of trends and dynamics of financial indicators, taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them;
- determination and assessment of the financial consequences of decisions made by state authorities and local governments, business entities.
Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options for the development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessing the possible degree of achievement of certain goals depending on the nature of the actions of the planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:
1) within the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future based on established cause-and-effect relationships;
2) in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for movement from the future to the present, when a chain of possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future are unfolded and studied, based on the existing level of development of the organization, administrative-territorial unit and the country as a whole.
In the process of financial forecasting, specific methods such as mathematical modeling, econometric forecasting, expert assessments, trend building and scenario development, and stochastic methods are used to calculate financial indicators.
Mathematical modeling allows you to take into account many interrelated factors that influence the indicators of the financial forecast, and select from several options for the forecast project that is most consistent with the accepted concept of industrial, socio-economic development and financial policy goals 2 .
Econometric forecasting is based on the principles of economic theory and statistics: the calculation of forecast indicators is carried out on the basis of statistical estimation coefficients for one or more economic variables acting as forecast factors; allows you to consider the simultaneous change of several variables that affect the financial forecast indicators. Econometric models describe, with a certain degree of probability, the dynamics of indicators depending on changes in factors influencing financial processes. When constructing econometric models, the mathematical apparatus of regression analysis is used, which gives quantitative estimates of the average relationships and proportions that have developed in the economy during the base period. To obtain the most reliable results, economic and mathematical methods are supplemented with expert assessments.
The method of expert assessments involves generalization and mathematical processing of the assessments of specialist experts on a specific issue. The effectiveness of this method depends on the professionalism and competence of the experts. Such forecasting can be quite accurate, but expert assessments are subjective, depend on the expert’s “feelings” and are not always amenable to rational explanation.
The trend method, which assumes the dependence of some groups of income and expenses only on the time factor, is based on constant rates of change (constant growth rate trend) or constant absolute changes (linear time trend). The disadvantage of this method is that it ignores economic, demographic and other factors.
The development of scenarios is not always based on science and objectivity; they are always influenced by political preferences, preferences of individual officials, investors, owners, but this allows us to assess the consequences of the implementation of certain political promises.
Stochastic methods assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the data used and the forecast financial indicators. The likelihood of calculating an accurate financial forecast is determined by the amount of empirical data used in the forecast.
Thus, financial forecasting methods differ in costs and volumes of final information provided: the more complex the forecasting method, the greater the costs associated with it and the volumes of information obtained with its help.
The result of financial forecasting is the preparation of a financial forecast, which is a system of scientifically based assumptions about possible directions of future development and the state of the financial system, its individual areas and subjects of financial relations. Forecasts make it possible to consider various options for the development of finance, for example, under favorable, average and worst-case scenarios for the development of the economy, business entity, market conditions, etc. Financial forecasts can be short-term (up to 3 years), medium-term (5-7 years) and long-term (up to 10-15 years).
At the national and territorial levels, financial forecasts are compiled in the form of a long-term financial plan and balance of financial resources (country, region, municipality) (Articles 172, 174, 175 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation).

1.2. Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels
As such, there was no financial forecasting system at the macro level in the Russian Federation. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of a financial forecasting institute. These and perhaps many other factors prevented the creation of a state forecasting institute. Therefore, the initiative to create a forecasting institute had to come from outside, which ultimately happened.
The initiator of the creation of the Institute of Social and Economic Forecasting was the European Union program - TACIS "Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Russian Federation." This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000.
As part of this TACIS project on the “Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Russian Federation,” the Ministry of Finance and the Center for Economic and Social Reforms formed a Policy Assessment and Planning Group (PAG). The OPP Group is designed to deal with long-term issues of the Kyrgyz economy and develop foresight regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PPR team received an analytical framework to assist in the construction of scenarios and economic policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.
A forecasting system designed for the Russian Federation cannot fully take into account all the determining factors postulated by theories. Issues related to data availability need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex.
In any economy there are strong links between productivity, income levels and the level and structure of demand, which are changed through fiscal and economic policies.
Thus, the DESP system should cover both supply and demand side factors 3 . Particular attention should be paid to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport, communications and energy networks, education and training institutions). The main factor determining investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.
There are limitations in creating a model. The data base for the Russian Federation still has gaps (for example, fixed capital). Due to the fact that statistical concepts were adapted to changes associated with the transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market system only after 1993, the length of time lags is currently a maximum of six years. These limitations indicate that this model cannot be an econometric model of the classical type. To forecast horizons up to 20 years, estimates of model parameters must be based on at least 50-100 years of empirical data. Therefore, the problem of inaccurate forecasts arises.
In this regard, the parameters of the DESP system can only be based on the “experience” of other countries. The parameter values were brought into line with the structures and relationships of the Russian Federation.
At the micro level, the main problem may be the inaccuracy of forecasts with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and time catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It must be taken into account that the accuracy of forecasts is influenced by the human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes drawing up the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy of forecasting depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of financial forecasting method and the implementation of strict financial control.

2. PROSPECTS FOR FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN THE RF
2.3. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in Russia
The development of the socio-economic development forecast for 2012 and forecast parameters for the period up to 2014 was carried out on an option basis, consisting of two basic (options 2 and 1) and two additional (options A and C) options.
Option 2 (moderately optimistic) reflects a relative increase in the competitiveness of the Russian economy (which is manifested in an increasing trend towards import substitution) and an improvement in the investment climate with a moderate increase in government spending on the development of infrastructure and human capital in 2013-2014.
Option 2 is based on relatively favorable assessments of external conditions: global economic recovery at a rate of 3.7-4.0% per year and stabilization of the price of Urals oil in the range of 97-101 US dollars per barrel.
GDP growth in 2012-2014 is predicted at 3.7-4.6 percent.
Option 1 (conservative) assumes continued low competitiveness with respect to imports and a lack of capital inflow with a slow recovery of investment activity and a reduction in real government spending on development. Annual economic growth rates in 2012-2014. are estimated at 2.8-3.8%, which is lower than the expected growth rates of the global economy.
Additionally, options with different dynamics oil prices and global economic growth rates.
Option A (negative) is characterized by a deterioration in the dynamics of the global economy (on the verge of stagnation in developed countries), although it does not imply a resumption of recession. Under these conditions, the price of oil is expected to decline to $80 per barrel by 2013. Given the greater dependence of the Russian economy on foreign economic conditions, this scenario exacerbates the risks of the stability of the banking system, balance of payments and the general level of confidence of economic agents. The growth of the Russian economy is predicted to slow down in 2012-2013. up to 1.5-2.5% and in 2014 – up to 3.7% with a significant weakening of the ruble exchange rate.
Additionally, option A2 of the resumption of the global recession and the fall in oil prices in 2012 to $60 per barrel was considered. In this scenario, GDP could decline by 0.5-1.4% with a significant devaluation.
Option C (optimistic) reflects the continuation of relatively high growth rates of the world economy and world oil prices in 2012-2013. at the level of 105-109 US dollars per barrel, with growth accelerating to 113 dollars per barrel in 2014. GDP growth rates in 2012-2014 may be higher than the base scenario by 0-0.2 percentage points. and are estimated at 3.9-4.6% per year.
As a base option for developing the parameters of the federal budget for 2011-2014. a moderately optimistic option is proposed (option 2).
Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2010-2014


Urals oil price (world), USD/barrel.
c	78,2	108	105	109	113
2		108	100	97	101
1		108	100	97	101
A		108	96	80	80
Gross domestic product, growth rate %
c	4,0	4,1	3,9	4,2	4,6
2		4,1	3,7	4,0	4,6
1		4,1	2,8	3,3	3,8
A		4,1	2,5	1,5	3,7
Industry, %
c	8,2	4,8	3,5	4,1	4,3
2		4,8	3,4	3,9	4,2
1		4,8	2,1	3,0	3,0
A		4,8	2,3	3,7	3,8
Investments in fixed assets, %
c	6,0	6,0	8,4	7,8	7,2
2		6,0	7,8	7,1	7,2
1		6,0	6,4	6,0	5,9
A		6,0	6,0	1,5	3,7
Real wages, %
c	5,2	3,6	5,2	6,2	6,3
2		3,6	5,1	5,8	6,3
1		3,6	4,0	3,9	4,0
A		3,6	3,0	2,6	2,6
Retail trade turnover, %
c	6,3	5,3	5,8	5,9	5,6
2		5,3	5,5	5,3	5,5
1		5,3	4,9	4,8	4,8
A		5,3	4,5	2,0	2,6
Export - total, billion US dollars
c	400,4	527	552	584	619
2		527	533	536	565
1		527	533	536	565
A		527	492	443	441
Imports - total, billion US dollars
c	248,7	340	401	458	512
2		340	397	445	486
1		340	392	435	475
A		340	378	371	385

As a result of post-crisis economic recovery in 2011, most key indicators have reached or are already exceeding their maximum levels of 2008. First of all, GDP in 2011 will be approximately the same as in 2008. If we compare it with the maximum pre-crisis level in the second quarter of 2008, then GDP will reach this level in the first half of 2012. At the same time, aggregate demand has become much more consumer-oriented. Retail trade turnover is 6% higher than in 2008, and investment is still 5% lower than before the crisis. Pre-crisis production volume is achieved with significantly more high rates foreign trade. Exports of goods due to rising oil prices in 2011 will be 12% higher than in 2008. Imports are expected to be 17% higher than in the pre-crisis period, given that the ruble in real terms is now also 10% stronger than the 2008 average. In 2011, due to the continued high performance of the extractive industries, industrial production fully recovered. Manufacturing production will reach the pre-crisis maximum of the second quarter of 2008 at the beginning of next year.
By 2014, GDP will exceed its pre-crisis level by 13 percent. Investments will reach the 2008 level in 2012 (and the maximum level of the second quarter of 2008 not earlier than 2013). Moreover, in 2014 investments will already be 17% higher than in 2008. Consumption of goods will increase even more – by 24% higher than the pre-crisis level.
Dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators,
according to option 2 (2008 = 100%)


GDP	96	100	104	108	113
Industry	98	103	106	110	115
Investments	89	95	102	109	117
Export*	85	112	113	114	120
Import*	85	117	136	152	167
Retail turnover	101	106	112	118	124
Real disposable income of the population	106	108	113	119	125
Real effective exchange rate of the ruble	103	110	114	114	112

*in US dollars

2.2. Tax policy in 2012-2014.
In the three-year period 2012-2014, the main goals of tax policy remain to support innovation activities, as well as support for investments in education and health care. It is planned, in particular, to make efforts aimed at increasing the revenue potential of the tax system. This is, first of all, an increase in budget system revenues from taxation of consumption, rent arising from the extraction of natural resources, as well as from the transition to a new system of taxation of real estate. A separate policy direction in the field of increasing the revenue potential of the tax system will be the optimization of the existing system of tax benefits and exemptions, as well as the elimination of existing opportunities for tax evasion.
Amendments to the legislation on taxes and fees are planned in the following areas:
1. Tax incentives for innovation and human capital development. It is planned, in particular, to further reduce insurance premium rates, improve depreciation policy, and provide tax preferences for socially significant expenses. In particular, for the period 2012-2013, the maximum rate of insurance contributions to state extra-budgetary funds will be reduced from 34% to 30%, levied on payments to individuals in the amount up to the established limit of 512 thousand rubles in 2012 and up to 567 thousand rubles in 2013. Also, for this category of payers, a tariff of insurance premiums will be established based on amounts exceeding the maximum value of the base for calculating insurance premiums in Pension fund Russian Federation in the amount of 10%.
2. Monitoring the effectiveness of tax incentives. It seems necessary to regularly analyze the demand for established mechanisms of tax incentives and tax benefits.
It is planned to clarify the list of income exempt from personal income tax, as well as to eliminate existing inaccuracies and contradictions that lead to ambiguous interpretation of the rules.
3. Excise taxation. In the planning period, periodic indexation of excise tax rates will be carried out taking into account the actual economic situation, while increasing excise taxes on alcohol, alcohol-containing and tobacco products will be produced at a faster pace than the inflation rate (specific figures for excise tax rates planned for introduction in the period until 2015 are given).
4. Improving taxation in transactions with securities and financial instruments of futures transactions, financial transactions. It is planned to make a number of decisions aimed at improving taxation when carrying out transactions with Eurobonds of Russian issuers, depository receipts, as well as when receiving and paying dividends.
5. Corporate income tax. It is proposed, in particular, to clarify the procedure for recognizing income from the sale of property, the rights to which are subject to state registration.
6. Taxation of natural resources. In order to equalize the level of tax burden on the gas and oil industries, work will continue in the planning period to establish an additional fiscal burden on the gas industry by differentiating the mineral extraction tax rate. It is also planned to adjust the rate for minerals, the share of exports of which exceeds 50 percent, depending on world prices for the corresponding minerals.
7. Improving taxation within the framework of special tax regimes. From 2012, a new chapter 26.5 “Patent taxation system” will be introduced for use by individual entrepreneurs. In addition, it is planned to gradually reduce the scope of application of the taxation system in the form of UTII, and from 2014 its abolition.
8. Introduction of property tax. The need to speed up preparations for the introduction of a property tax is pointed out. It is envisaged to develop a system that allows the collection of this tax based on the market value of taxable property with a non-taxable minimum for low-income families.
9. Tax administration. It is proposed to introduce tools to combat tax evasion. In addition, in particular, in the planning period it is planned to work out the issues of collecting taxes using electronic money, to regulate the procedure for collecting taxes from foreign currency accounts and accounts in precious metals in banks.

Improving tax policy should be aimed at creating an effective, stable and competitive tax system, which will simultaneously help reduce the risks of fiscal sustainability in the medium and long term. The main goals of tax policy continue to be support for innovation, as well as support for activities in the field of education and health care.
In the period 2012-2014. the implementation of the goals and objectives provided for in the “Main Directions of Tax Policy for 2010 and the Planning Period of 2011 and 2012” and “Main Directions of Tax Policy for 2011 and the Planning Period of 2012 and 2013” will continue.
The most significant measures in the adopted tax innovations are:
1. Tax incentives for innovation and human capital development.
In the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev on budget policy in 2012-2014. a reduction is envisaged for 2012-2013. the total tariff of compulsory insurance contributions for small businesses and non-profit organizations carrying out their main activities in the field of social services to the population, as well as charitable organizations and organizations using a simplified taxation system, is up to 20 percent.
Currently, proposals are also being formed to support companies in the development of IT technologies and software, including in the form of reducing the maximum rate of insurance premiums.
Work will be completed on the draft federal law introduced by the Government of the Russian Federation on amendments to part two of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation in terms of improving the taxation of non-profit organizations and charitable activities
2. Tax incentives for the development of human capital.
Improving the system of incentive deductions when calculating personal income tax. The first step is proposals to increase the amount of the standard tax deduction available to taxpayers for every third and subsequent child. In particular, a deduction of 3 thousand rubles will be provided for every third and subsequent child. At the same time, the current standard tax deduction in the amount of 400 rubles, currently provided to all taxpayers, is subject to cancellation.
3. Monitoring the effectiveness of tax incentives.
Regular analysis of the demand for established mechanisms of tax incentives and tax benefits is one of the most important elements of tax policy, since an increase in the number of benefits provided in the absence of information about their effectiveness not only leads to lost revenues of the budget system, but also discredits the very idea of providing tax benefits.
Monitoring the demand for tax incentive mechanisms is possible on the basis of reporting by the Federal Tax Service, generated on the basis of information contained in tax returns provided by taxpayers to the tax authorities.
To carry out monitoring, changes were made to the existing tax return forms aimed at obtaining information characterizing the quantitative parameters of the use by taxpayers of a certain list of tax benefits.
The analysis will allow us to draw conclusions about the level of demand and availability of specific benefits, about the results of their application in terms of compliance with the initially set goals, which will make it possible to abandon the use of some benefits, close opportunities for minimizing taxation, and also redistribute the “tax expenses” of the budget carried out in in the form of tax benefits for more popular areas.
This group should also include the development of forms for monitoring the receipt of insurance contributions (not related to taxes) to extra-budgetary funds and the development of periodic objective reporting.
4. Excise taxation.
During the forecast period, the state will continue to implement a policy of rapid increase in excise tax rates on certain excisable products, in particular, on alcohol, alcohol-containing and tobacco products.
At the same time, the increase in excise taxes on alcoholic products with a high alcohol content (ethyl alcohol by volume over 9 percent) will be carried out at a faster pace than the rates on alcoholic products with an ethyl alcohol volume content of up to 9 percent, as well as compared to beer and natural wines.
The tax policy in relation to excise taxes on tobacco products will be implemented, inter alia, through the implementation of measures to reduce the consumption of these products, provided for by the Concept for the Implementation of State Policy to Combat Tobacco Consumption for 2010-2015 (Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 23, 2010 No. 1563 -p). In this regard, in order to achieve the average level of taxation of tobacco products among the countries of the European region of the World Health Organization (taking into account the purchasing power of the population), the annual rate of increase in minimum excise tax rates should ensure their increase by at least 3 times by 2014 relative to the level of 2011 .
In addition, it will be provided for the establishment of excise tax rates at the same rate on cigarettes with a filter and cigarettes without a filter (cigarettes).
It should be noted that due to the accelerated indexation of the minimum specific excise tax rate on tobacco products, the difference between the retail prices of tobacco products in the low-, medium- and high-price segments will gradually decrease. Under these conditions, the value of the ad valorem component of the excise rate will gradually decrease, which in the long term will be possible to abandon.
In relation to other excisable goods, including petroleum products, it is planned to maintain excise tax rates in 2012 and 2013 in the amounts provided for by the current legislation on taxes and fees, with subsequent indexation of excise tax rates established in rubles from January 1, 2014 by 10% to rates applied from January 1 to December 31, 2013 inclusive.
5. Taxation of natural resources.
Since 2011, a policy has been pursued to consistently increase mineral extraction tax rates on gas. In 2011, the rate was set at 237 rubles per 1000 cubic meters. m (previously the rate did not change for a long time and amounted to 147 rubles). From 2012, the rate will be set at 509 rubles and will then be indexed to the level of 582 rubles in 2013 and 622 rubles in 2014.
In order to stimulate the development of the industry, the issue of differentiating the rate of mineral extraction tax levied on the production of natural gas may be considered.
6. Property tax.
The Budget Address of the President of the Russian Federation dated June 29, 2010 “On Budget Policy in 2011-2013” indicates the need to speed up preparations for the introduction of a real estate tax, including the formation of appropriate cadastres, as well as to develop a system that allows for the collection of this tax based on market value of taxable property with a non-taxable minimum for low-income families.
Currently, the main elements of taxation for real estate taxes have been determined. Work is underway to establish the amount of tax deductions to determine the tax base when calculating real estate taxes.
For the full implementation of the system, work will continue on the formation of a state real estate cadastre, as well as the creation of a procedure for determining the tax base, which should be the cadastral value of real estate. This requires extensive work on cadastral valuation of real estate and information content of the state real estate cadastre.
7. In addition to the implementation of measures regarding taxes and mandatory fees, in 2011, previously adopted decisions on determining the rate of insurance contributions to state (territorial) extra-budgetary funds were revised. Since the beginning of this year, the basic rate of insurance premiums has been increased from 26% to 34 percent. Starting from 2012, it will be reduced to the level of 30% (for certain categories of small and medium-sized businesses and a number of other areas - up to 20 percent).
At the same time, in order to compensate for the financial losses of the Pension Fund budget due to its imbalance, a regressive tax rate for income above the threshold level will be introduced from 2012 (base level - 10 percent). The above solutions are temporary and apply to 2012-2013. During this grace period, it is necessary to make informed, informed decisions on reforming the pension system and reducing the burden on the expenditure side of the federal budget.
Taking into account the measures being implemented in the field of tax policy, the overall level of fiscal burden in the near future will remain stable at the level of 38-39% of GDP. This generally coincides with the expected level in 2011, but is higher than the value in previous years, taking into account decisions to increase insurance premium rates, advanced indexation of excise tax rates, increase the mineral extraction tax rate on natural gas and other decisions made in 2010-2011.
It should be noted that a slight increase in the fiscal burden is predicted without taking into account the oil and gas component (about 0.5-0.7% of GDP for 2012-2014). However, this forecast is not associated with an excessive increase in the tax burden, but is caused by a progressive change in the structure of the economy and an increase in the share of the non-oil and gas sector.
Fiscal policy
The main priorities of the socio-economic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation in 2012-2014. must be provided with the necessary budgetary resources. In accordance with the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation on budget policy in 2012-2014, the federal budget for 2012 and for the planning period 2013-2014 should become a budget through which the tasks of entering a path of sustainable post-crisis development and creating conditions for development are solved and modernization of the economy, improving the level and quality of life of citizens, strengthening the defense capability and security of the country, increasing the efficiency and transparency of public administration.
The operational priority of budget policy for the coming years is to reduce the budget deficit, move closer to a balanced deficit-free budget by increasing taxes and optimizing spending, as well as the post-crisis restoration of budget funds (the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund).
The tax burden on the economy (the overall level of budget system revenues) has already increased significantly in 2011, mainly due to an increase in insurance payments - to 36.5% of GDP from 31.6% in 2010, and in 2014 it is expected to reach 35 .9% of GDP. The tax component itself (without duties and insurance payments) will increase from 21.3% of GDP to 22.6% of GDP. In the basic optimistic scenario (option 2), budget system expenditures will increase slightly - from 39.2% of GDP in 2010 to 39.3% of GDP in 2014. In the conservative scenario, they will drop to 38.7% of GDP. This will reduce the budget deficit (of the system as a whole) from 3.8% of GDP in 2010 to 0.2% of GDP in 2014 under the base case.
Public debt could rise from 10.4% of GDP in 2011 to 15.7% of GDP in 2014, and budgetary funds (Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund) could rise from 7.8% of GDP to 9.3-9.7 % of GDP in 2014 (depending on option).
Balance of the budget system, % of GDP


Income	35,4	39,1	38,5	38,1 - 38,4	38,8 - 39,1
Expenses	39,2	38,5	39,6	39,0 - 39,6	38,7 - 39,3
Surplus (+) / Deficit (-)	-3,8	0,6	-1,2	-1,2 / -0,8	-0,2 / 0,1
For reference:
The volume of public debt of the Russian Federation	9,3	10,4	13,0	14,7 - 14,9	15,7 - 16,0
Volume of the Reserve Fund	1,7	3,0	4,2	4,7 - 4,9	5,8 - 6,1
Volume of the National Welfare Fund	6,0	4,8	4,3	3,9	3,5 - 3,6

In the structure of expenditures of the budget system, the share of expenditures on social goals and defense capability and security with stagnation (or reduction according to the conservative option) of the development budget itself.
The consumer orientation of the influence of government spending on economic development will increase. The growth rate of consolidated budget expenditures on consumption in real terms will remain positive throughout the forecast period. However, there will be an increase in the growth rate of expenditures from 7.2% in 2011 to 8.9% in 2014, which will mainly be due to an increase in the growth rate of federal budget consumption expenditures in real terms. At the same time, consumer spending in regional budgets will also grow in real terms in 2013-2014. as a result of the additional indexation of wages of public sector employees in social sectors included in option 2.
Investment expenditures of the consolidated budget in real terms, on the contrary, are reduced annually throughout the forecast period by 0.5-6.7 percent. The negative dynamics are associated with investment expenditures of the federal budget, which decrease in real terms annually from 1.7% to 15.8 percent. This is mainly due to a significant reduction in expenses allocated for the implementation of the federal targeted investment program and investment projects within the framework of the Investment Fund of the Russian Federation. In addition, in 2012, the financing of a number of large projects will be completed (construction of most of the facilities for the APEC summit and Olympic facilities in Sochi). At the same time, regional investment expenditures may begin to increase in real terms from 2013, supported by the projected positive dynamics of the revenue side of regional budgets.
In general, government capital investments at the expense of budgets of all levels will decrease from 3.8% of GDP in 2010) to 3.2-3.4% of GDP in 2012 and, according to option 2, by 2014 they will amount to 3% of GDP (2.7 % of GDP according to the conservative option).
Expenditures on education and health care. In 2012-2014 measures are planned aimed at optimizing costs and related to the implementation of cash payments to certain categories of doctors and medical personnel at the expense of compulsory health insurance, as well as the transfer, from January 1, 2012, of supporting the activities of educational institutions of secondary vocational education and providing monthly monetary remuneration for class work management at the expense of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
The decisions taken to equalize the wages of secondary school teachers with the average wage in the regions, supported by an increase in subsidies from the federal budget, are estimated to ensure an increase in nominal wages in education by 15-16% in 2012.
In a moderately optimistic development scenario, spending on education, taking into account possible decisions to increase wages in the public sector in 2013-2014, may increase from 4.2% of GDP in 2011 to 4.3% of GDP in 2014, expenses for healthcare will increase accordingly from 4.2% of GDP to 4.4% of GDP. In a conservative version, they could decrease from 4.2% of GDP to 3.8% of GDP.
Expenditures on innovative development and support of high-tech sectors of the economy. In accordance with the Innovative Development Strategy, domestic spending on research and development at the federal level should amount to 0.94% of GDP in 2014 versus 0.87% of GDP in 2010. In the conservative version of the forecast, they will decrease to 0.65% of GDP or by 7.8% in real terms relative to 2010. In general, innovation expenditures for the period 2011-2014, including investments in high-tech industries and the scientific base, as well as scientific foundations, can range from 1% of GDP to 1.2% of GDP in a moderately optimistic scenario and from 0.9% GDP up to 1% of GDP in the conservative version of the forecast.
A moderately optimistic option for increasing government spending on R&D and innovation, combined with the institutional changes provided for by the Strategy, will modernize the domestic sector of R&D and basic science, as well as high-tech sectors of the economy, and increase its international competitiveness.
Expenditures to support industries that ensure economic diversification and infrastructure development. Transport infrastructure remains on the list of the most important economic policy priorities. Expenditures on its development should amount to 1.1% by 2014 under the optimistic scenario, while under the conservative scenario they should decrease by almost 0.2 percentage points of GDP.
Since 2013, the implementation of the new State Program for the development of agriculture and regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food begins. Supporting automakers by subsidizing loans for investment projects should correspond to the sector’s need for this instrument. As a result, federal budget expenditures on stimulating diversification and supporting basic industries, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, will amount to an average of 2011-2014 in a moderately optimistic scenario. about 1.4-1.5% of budget expenditures or 0.3% of GDP.
Distribution of expenditures of the budget system as a whole
for 2011-2014, in% of GDP


Expenditures of the budget system	38,5	39,6	39,0-39,6	38,7-39,3
Interest expenses	0,7	0,8	0,9	0,9
Non-interest expenses	37,9	38,8	38,1-38,8	37,8-38,4
National issues	2,5	2,4	2,2-2,3	2,0-2,2
National defense, national security and law enforcement	5,7	6,4	6,9	7,1-7,2
National economy	5,1	5,2	4,6-4,9	4,3-4,6
Housing and communal services	2,2	2,0	1,9	1,8
Education	4,2	4,2	3,8-4,2	3,6-4,3
Healthcare and sports	4,3	4,3	4,0-4,3	3,9-4,5
healthcare	4,2	4,2	3,9-4,2	3,8-4,4
Social policy	13,0	13,5	13,4	13,1-13,2
Pension provision	8,0	8,0	8,0-8,1	7,8-8,0
Other social policy expenditures	5,0	5,4	5,3-5,4	5,2-5,3

Defense and security spending. In 2012-2014 In the structure of expenditures of the budget system, expenditures on the security bloc will grow most rapidly, both as a result of the adoption of a new state weapons program and the reform of pay for military personnel and law enforcement officers. The share of expenditures on national defense and security should increase to 18.1% of total expenditures of the budget system by 2014 compared to 14.8% in 2011.

Costs for indexing wage funds for employees of federal government institutions, salaries (salaries) of judges and prosecutors, federal government civil servants.
From October 1, 2012, it is planned to index by 6% the wage funds of employees of federal government institutions, the salaries (wages) of judges and prosecutors, federal civil servants, and from September 1, 2012 by 6% of the scholarship fund for students studying in federal educational institutions. In addition, the federal budget must provide for indexation of wage funds for employees of federal government institutions, salaries of judges and prosecutors, and federal civil servants in 2013 and 2014. This will make it possible to maintain the level of remuneration of the above categories of workers and employees in real terms. As a result, by 2014, the share of expenses for remuneration of employees of federal government institutions, salaries (salaries) of judges and prosecutors, federal civil servants will amount to 7.6% of total federal budget expenses compared to 9.1% in 2012 year.
In a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the economy and the budget system, additional indexation of public sector salaries is provided, which could lead to an increase in the share of wages and allowances for military personnel from 17.4% to 21.1%, and of all expenses of the budget system, respectively, from 6.7 % to 8.3% of GDP.
Expenditures on social support of the population and ensuring the balance of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation. During the forecast period, it is expected that expenditures for these purposes will average 6.2% of GDP for the period from 2011 to 2014. As a result of the increase in insurance payments, federal budget transfers to the pension system will be reduced from 22.8% to 21.3% of total federal budget expenditures in 2012-2014.

2.4. Factors of economic growth

Forecast period 2012-2014 characterized by noticeable changes in the structure and factors of economic growth associated with the transition:

Post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy in 2010-2011. was largely determined by favorable foreign economic conditions (growth in world prices and export volumes). Most of the factors for the post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy have already been exhausted.
On the factor of production side, conditions on the labor market can be expected to further tighten in the medium term. Unemployment rates are already approaching pre-crisis levels, and unfavorable demographic trends will exacerbate the shortage in the labor market. Starting from 2012, the contribution of the recovery growth of reserves should sharply decrease. Thus, as the growth associated with the external economic factor and the restoration of pre-crisis production volumes is exhausted, internal factors of development will increasingly come to the fore. Starting from 2012, the growth of real disposable income of the population should accelerate, which will ensure high rates of consumer demand.
Despite the decrease in government capital investment, under the optimistic scenario, we can expect a significant increase in investment activity, especially growth in investment in the non-resource sector. Overall, investment should be the most dynamic component of demand. The rate of fixed capital formation will increase from 21.4% of GDP in 2010 to 23.4% in 2014, which will exceed the pre-crisis level, but is still not enough for large-scale modernization of the economy. During the transition period, which covers 2012-2014, the contribution of consumer demand will play a dominant role in economic growth while investment activity remains relatively weak.
The leading factor of economic growth in the medium term is not so much an increase in investment and consumption as the expectation of a noticeable increase in the competitiveness of domestic products, which will compensate for the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. It is this fork in the dynamics of competitiveness and economic efficiency that largely determines the difference between the first conservative and second moderately optimistic forecast options.
The moderately optimistic forecast option (option 2) suggests, compared to the conservative option:
firstly, more effective dynamics of the competitiveness of domestic products and import substitution. According to estimates, an additional 0.2-0.3 percentage points can be achieved due to the efficiency factor. GDP growth compared to the possibilities of option 1;
In option 2, the elasticity of growth in domestic production in relation to domestic demand increases and by 2014 it becomes higher than before the crisis. In conservative option 1, it will still exceed the pre-crisis level and be 20% lower than the main option.
secondly, increased investment in expanding production and infrastructure projects, which will provide up to 0.4 percentage points in addition to the conservative option. GDP growth per year;
thirdly, additional investments in the development of human capital (health care, education and culture) and growth in household incomes add up to 0.2 percentage points to economic growth. GDP growth.
The total contribution of the economic efficiency growth factor to the GDP growth rate in option 2 increases over this period from 0.85 percentage points. up to 1.4-1.5 points. In the conservative version, the contribution of the efficiency factor does not exceed 1.1 percentage points. In general, the additional growth potential in option 2 compared to option 1 is estimated at 0.7 to 0.9 percentage points of GDP growth.
Main factors of economic growth,
GDP growth rate, %

	Forecast
	2011	2012	2013	2014
GDP growth (option 2)	4,1	3,7	4,0	4,6
Difference in GDP growth rates (version 2-1)		0,9	0,7	0,8
Investment growth (option 2)	6,0	7,8	7,1	7,2
Difference in investment growth rates (version 2-1)	0	1,4	1,1	1,3
Growth in real disposable income of the population (option 2)	1,5	5,0	4,8	5,3
Difference in the growth rate of real disposable income of the population (version 2-1)		0,6	0,7	1,1
GDP growth, including due to:		0,9	0,7	0,8
additional investments in expanding production and exports		0,5	0,4	0,4
due to increased efficiency and investment in the innovation sector		0,2	0,2	0,3
growth of household incomes and investments in social sphere		0,2	0,1	0,1

Increasing the efficiency of capital and labor is determined not only by improving the quality of corporate management and competitive pressure, but also by the positive contribution of the implementation of government programs and measures aimed at supporting the development of key sectors of the economy, that is, the implementation of development and modernization policies by the state.
From the point of view of its significance for economic growth, the greatest contribution in the medium term is made by a set of programs and measures for the development of high-tech industries and the state defense order. To support (both in the format of state programs and other events) the aviation industry, space complex, nuclear engineering, science and state defense orders in 2011-2014. about 2.7% of GDP is channeled. Taking into account the multiplier effect on the development of other sectors of the economy, this gives about 3 percentage points. the rate of GDP growth accumulated over three years or 17.4% of its growth.
The program and measures to develop the transport system, which finances about 1.2% of GDP, has a longer-term effect. For the period 2011-2014. the contribution of this complex to the accumulated GDP growth is estimated at 1.5 percentage points. GDP.
Investments in human capital based on the implementation of programs for the development of healthcare, education, culture and the labor market, the financing of which is allocated 0.8% of GDP, improves the quality of human capital and its efficiency. The overall impact of this factor is estimated to increase the cumulative growth rate of GDP by 0.8-0.9 percentage points. GDP.
Thus, only these four most important groups of government programs form about 5.4 percentage points. accumulated GDP growth or 30.9% of total growth.
State programs for the development of agriculture, housing construction and housing and communal services also make a significant contribution to supporting economic growth.
The increase in the macroeconomic effect of development programs is determined not only by the scale of government funding, but also by the quality and effectiveness of the activities and projects contained in them, as well as the multiplier effect for private investment. State policy to establish a system of strategic management, de-bureaucratize and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures can significantly increase the effectiveness of implemented measures.
Federal executive authorities are developing 40 state programs of the Russian Federation in accordance with the list approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated November 11, 2010 No. 1950-r (taking into account changes introduced by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 3, 2011). Of these, the Government of the Russian Federation has approved three state programs:

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