What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in the fall. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions

12:35 — REGNUM By the end of 2016, inflation in Russia will be 7.2%, GDP will decline by 0.7%, and the ruble will be at 67.75 per dollar over the next three months. As the correspondent reports IA REGNUM August 1, the corresponding forecast is contained in the materials of the monthly macroeconomic survey by Thomson Reuters.

Analysts from 12 of the largest Russian and international companies and banks have downgraded their expectations regarding the prospects for economic growth and inflation in 2016. On average, analysts expect the inflation rate to be 7.2% by the end of the year, compared to 6.5% based on the results of the survey in the previous month. According to the experts surveyed, inflation in July will be at the level of 0.7% in monthly terms and 7.4% in annual terms.

“Weekly inflation in the Russian Federation remains at 0.1% for the third time in a row after a jump of 0.4% in the first week of July due to an increase in housing and communal services tariffs. Annual inflation fell to 7.2% from 7.5% at the end of June,” the study notes.

Most economists believe that GDP will contract by 0.7% in 2016. This estimate is more pessimistic than the 0.6% decline expected last month. “The prospects for economic recovery have been clouded by a renewed decline in oil prices; after rising above $50 per barrel in June, Brent fell to $43 per barrel in July due to excess supply in the market,” experts say.

The decline in oil prices has led to a weakening of the ruble, which increases inflation risks and is a prerequisite for a tighter monetary policy. Analysts surveyed by Reuters see the ruble exchange rate at 67.75 per dollar in three months and 65.8 in 12 months.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters believe that after lowering the key rate by 0.5% in June, the Central Bank will make two more similar steps in the third and fourth quarters of 2016. In their opinion, at the end of 2016 the key rate will be at 9.5%.

After Rosstat revised the dynamics of real wages, expectations in this regard were improved: on average, economists expect wages to decline by 0.1% in 2016, although last month they predicted a fall of 2.3%. The increase in income, however, will not be reflected in an increase in expenses, but will go into savings. Average turnover forecast retail fell to minus 3.7% from minus 3.5% in June.

Let us recall that earlier the Ministry of Economic Development estimated the decline in GDP in June 2016 at 0.5% in annual terms, in general in the second quarter - at 0.6%, and for the first half of the year - at 0.9% compared to the corresponding period in 2015. The department's official forecast assumes a 0.2% economic decline in 2015 with oil at $40 per barrel.

Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for the fall of 2019 – after the Central Bank’s correction, we expect a jump, the ruble continues to fall. New factors influencing the depreciation of the ruble.

The fall of 2019 is a kind of turning point for the American currency. For the first time, against the backdrop of oil growth (albeit small), the ruble began to sink. According to preliminary forecasts, the dollar exchange rate in September-October may be 75-76 rubles with a further upward trend.

In 2019, the position of the ruble began to be affected by even more negative factors. This is the collapse of stock markets, and an increase in the outflow of capital from Russia abroad, and the curtailment of countless investment projects, including a number of profitable deals for the supply of weapons to India.

According to Raiffeisenbank experts, on the eve of the fall, capital outflow in mid-summer amounted to $4.2 billion. The same bank forecasts that the currency will rise in price by 12-17%, which is equivalent to 73-76 rubles per 1 USD.

Another indirect factor for the growth of the dollar in the fall is the repayment of external debt by $37 billion. Peak payout affected national currency. Tighter sanctions in the summer months also hit stocks Russian companies, and at the same time also affected the largest banks.

Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate until the end of 2019

The main trend is smooth growth for the period while the Ministry of Finance will purchase foreign currency for the National Welfare Fund for excess income from budgeted oil at $40 per barrel. Next there will be a jump, then a correction. Stepan Demura names goals of 65, 67 and 75 rubles. Two goals have already been completed.

Months	RUB/USD exchange rate
September

Vladislav Zhukovsky says that “all the factors that exist are in favor of the devaluation of the ruble - geopolitical, a new expanded package of sanctions, a weak trade balance, and net export of capital.”

According to the expert, the Ministry of Finance does not use the additional money received from the sale of expensive oil into the economy or social benefits, and for the purchase of American currency and securities. Such investments do not have very bright prospects, both in terms of trading and in relation to stimulating the domestic economy.

The economy is increasingly beginning to be “eaten up”, logistics – foreign transportation and duties have become more expensive due to the rise in the currency, Russian companies are experiencing supply problems. A lot of time has passed since 2014; foreign-made equipment (and we have very little Russian equipment) requires spare parts. And they are sold 2-3 times more expensive, taking into account the growth of the currency, PLATO, the increase in excise taxes on fuel and the tax burden.

Imported products can be demonstratively suppressed on camera, but what about spare parts for production equipment, computers, CNC machines and other components, without which modern production is unthinkable? Contrary to the wishes of the jingoists, sanctions did not allow domestic production to increase, including because the government is constantly worsening the situation of business. Corruption and arbitrariness simply do not allow creating optimal soil for investment. So how can the ruble strengthen?

Oil will become cheaper; constant agreements on freezing production in OPEC have only a temporary effect. The oversupply today is about 1 million barrels.

Therefore, forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for the fall of 2019 imply growth, correction, and new growth. Moreover, with a probability of 20%, it can be sharp, since the Central Bank will make adjustments that temporarily restrain the dollar exchange rate, but then allow it to “shoot” by several rubles at once. Nothing can be predicted with certainty, but a sharp increase in the exchange rate at the end of October is one of the long-standing versions voiced by Stepan Demura and other experts.

How much will the dollar rise to?

Now the first goal is a return to 73-75 rubles, which will approximately be achieved by November-December. Perhaps the correction will last longer if favorable conditions on the oil market, the dollar will balance at around 68-70 rubles.

For stable growth of the ruble, two conditions are necessary - the lifting of sanctions and an increase in the price of oil above $100 per barrel. Since this is unlikely, we can only expect an increase. And the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the fall of 2019 may not come true only if oil prices rise sharply, which, again, is almost unrealistic. The Russian currency has no bottom; the political situation is unlikely to change in the current situation.

The government is in favor recent months increased VAT, which also adversely affects purchasing power and economic growth.

After 75 rubles, which should be established by the end of autumn (but it is not a fact that this will happen), another correction period will begin. It may imply a decrease to 65-70. The second goal - 100-125 rubles - will definitely be achieved in 2019-2020 if the state continues its economic policy and sanctions are strengthened. It is difficult to say how accurate this forecast will be; it all depends on the variable corrections and their duration.

So forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for the fall of 2019 can be of two forms - in the best case scenario, there will be no increase until the end of the quarter, and the rate will remain at 73-74. At best, a short-term correction to 71-72. At worst, the collapse could reach 85 or higher.

In the fall of 2016, the dollar exchange rate is expected significant changes, warns the forecast of leading analysts.

Taking into account the dynamics of the economic situation, the Fed's policy will remain conservative. At the same time, the positions of the Russian currency will remain dependent on the oil market.

Shaky economy

The dynamics of the American economy do not allow the Fed to continue raising the key rate. Despite the regulator’s statements at the end of last year, this figure remains unchanged in 2016. IN best case scenario The Fed will carry out one or two more stages of rate increases, although at the beginning of the year experts predicted four stages of increases.

The development of the situation on the labor market does not cause concern among analysts. Fed spokesman James Bullard predicts that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.7%, which will be observed in coming years. However, the rate of economic growth and inflation indicates that the US economy is still far from full recovery.

IMF experts lowered the US GDP growth forecast to 2.2%. Previously, fund representatives predicted an increase of 2.4%. The main risks remain the pace of population aging, the decline in the size of the middle class and the deterioration of infrastructure.

OECD experts are more pessimistic. According to their estimates, the growth of the American economy will not exceed 1.8%. At the same time, representatives of the organization note a decrease in investment in industry, which is holding back economic recovery.

A strong dollar is one of the key factors that worsens positions American companies on international markets. That is why the regulator is in no hurry to increase the rate, which will inevitably lead to a further strengthening of the dollar. In addition, actual inflation continues to lag behind the target of two percent.

In such conditions, the dollar has virtually no potential for further strengthening. However, the dynamics of oil prices and problems with filling Russian budget may lead to an increase in the exchange rate of the American currency against the ruble.

High dependency

Ruble positions remain vulnerable to influence external factors. Strict restrictions associated with maintaining the level of the budget deficit are forcing the government to cut spending. At the same time, a new collapse in the oil market could put officials in an extremely difficult situation.

Oil prices rise to $45-50/barrel. made it possible to partially ease the load on the Reserve Fund. Using these funds, the government finances costs that are not covered by revenue. However, oil prices retain significant potential for decline. "Black gold" may lose its value by reacting too much high level oil production.

Leading oil exporters continue to fight for market niches. Full refund on the Iranian oil market and the resumption of exports of “black gold” from the United States could deal a crushing blow to prices. Experts note that the growth in quotations in the second quarter of this year has nothing to do with fundamental factors.

Temporary supply disruptions from Nigeria and Libya, as well as forest fires in Canada, led to a short-term decline in supply levels. However, the impact of these factors will be minimized in the third quarter, when oil prices may return to minimum values. In addition, analysts assume a decrease in the level of global consumption of “black gold” in 2016, which will be caused by the results of Brexit.

Price collapse to $30/barrel. will force the government to take prompt action. First of all, the position of the domestic currency will be weakened, which will reduce the shock to the economy.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for autumn 2016

Analysts are considering two main scenarios in which the dollar exchange rate will change. The basic option envisages maintaining the status quo in the fall of this year. As a result, the dollar exchange rate will stabilize at 65 rubles/dollar, with possible fluctuations in the range of 5%. At the same time, oil prices should not fall below $45 per barrel.

A conservative forecast assumes a 20% increase in the dollar exchange rate, which will become a reality in the fall of 2016. As a result, the value of the US currency will return to maximum values current year - about 80 rubles/dollar. Such a devaluation of the ruble will become possible if oil prices fall to $30 per barrel.

The privatization of state-owned enterprises will help mitigate the consequences of the negative scenario. With the help of this instrument, the government will be able to attract additional foreign exchange resources, which will be used to stabilize the economic situation. In addition, the Ministry of Finance expects to raise funds through external borrowings.

Our website has specially collected relevant information for you dollar forecasts for winter 2016-2017.

The ruble exchange rate forecast for September 2016 is positive due to the improving economic situation, as well as the rise in the price of black gold. The Russian government expects that in the future the ruble will continue to strengthen against all world currencies.

The rise in the price of black gold in the summer led to a slight stabilization in the market and allowed the state to replenish the budget. According to the results of the first half of the year, the budget deficit amounted to 4% of GDP, although previously experts predicted an excess of expenditures by 4.3%. Despite slight improvement this indicator, it still remains low as the target is 3 percent. The oil industry has a significant impact on the state's economy; it brings in 35% of budget revenues. In the old days, when 1 barrel of oil cost $100, the share of revenues from oil sales was 55 percent.

The budget was also increased by increasing the export duty. It is also worth noting that in the fall of 2016, the ruble exchange rate will also be supported by uncertainty regarding the UK’s exit from the European Union. The ruble has the following advantages compared to other world currencies:

1. High stakes.
2. Dividend payment period.
3. Increasing the standards of the Central Bank.

Experienced IMF analysts have compiled a fresh forecast for September 2016, according to which GDP will deteriorate by 1.2%, and not by 1.5%, as previously predicted. As a result, the ruble will continue to strengthen in the fall.

Many experts are confident that in the second half of 2016 the ruble will continue to strengthen against the US dollar. The main reasons are: a further increase in the cost of oil, as well as the willingness of investors after Brexit to invest their savings in risky assets.

Experts assure that stability will appear in the dollar/ruble pair in the fall. Strong strengthening the ruble is not expected, as this will negatively affect the process of restoring the state’s economy. Based on all this, we can conclude that in September 2016, 1 US dollar will cost 65 rubles.

Expert Gleb Zadoya assures that a sharp strengthening of the ruble is not expected in the future. It is even possible that the Russian government will deliberately weaken the ruble against other world currencies in order to replenish its budget.

Alfa Bank employees allow the ruble to fluctuate in September. The actions of major market players can cause the dollar/ruble pair to undergo wide fluctuations. On short time The ruble may fall to 75, but such a fall will not last long. The main factor that led to the growth of the ruble is the rise in price of black gold. However, in the fall, the rise in oil prices may slow down slightly.

Stabilization in the oil industry

The oil industry is still searching for stability between production levels and demand for oil. Despite numerous forecasts at the beginning of 2016 that the market would become stable in the second half of the year, it remains in an uncertain state. Consumption depends on economic development. The price of oil largely depends on the Chinese economy, which is its main consumer. Previously, Chinese economic growth was stable at 7 percent, but last year China faced a stock market crisis and a decline in exports. As a result, this had a negative impact on the Chinese economy, which in turn led to a reduction in demand for black gold and, accordingly, to its reduction in price.

Another factor that led to cheaper oil was the referendum on Britain's exit from the EU. If the UK leaves the EU, the GDP of not only the UK itself will decrease, but also that of all countries that are members of the European Union. In the event of such an outcome, the cost of one barrel may fall to $35, and this, as you understand, will lead to a depreciation of the ruble in relation to all world currencies.

The Russian government assures that the forecast for the fall of 2016 is favorable for our compatriots. Analysts suggest that, at best, the ruble will maintain its current position. Under unfavorable circumstances, the ruble will fall to 75.

The value of the ruble in September 2016 will depend on the price of black gold. If the price of oil remains in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel, then the dollar will cost 67-70 rubles. If the price of oil continues to rise to $50, then the ruble will maintain its position in the fall. The dollar exchange rate in September 2016 may fall to 61 rubles, provided that black gold costs $55. Some experts suggest the ruble will fall to 80 rubles. For this to happen, oil prices must fall to $30.

With the beginning of summer, the process should unfold again, which could weaken the dollar to 60 rubles, allowing Russians to purchase currency for their holidays at a favorable rate. However, at the end of the year, the “American” may again attack ruble positions.

The period of ascent of the ruble exchange rate coincided with an increase in prices for Brent oil, which during this time strengthened by almost 70 percent from the January minimum of $27.1 per barrel. On last week Against the backdrop of the price of “black gold” of about 45 dollars per barrel, the Russian currency was trading around 65-66 rubles per dollar. However, such a strengthening of the ruble does not completely satisfy analysts at one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs. His strategist Kamakshya Trivedi said last week in an interview with Bloomberg that the fair value of the Russian currency should be considered a level below 60 rubles per dollar. In his opinion, the ruble still has potential to strengthen.

But it will definitely not happen in May, which is traditionally considered one of the weakest months for the Russian currency. Not least of all, because the population began purchasing dollars and euros for vacations abroad.

"There is enough high probability development of the seasonal May correction in the markets. At the moment, fears of a slowdown in the global economy are returning, which could trigger a return of Brent quotes to the level of $40 per barrel," he said. Rossiyskaya newspaper"leading analyst of Promsvyazbank Dmitry Gritskevich. For the exchange rate of the domestic currency, such a cost of raw materials means a rollback in May to approximately 69 rubles per dollar, he believes.

According to Dmitry Gritskevich, the trend will change in the summer - oil prices may rise even above $50 per barrel due to the start of the automobile season in the United States with expectations of a gradual reduction in the imbalance of supply and demand in the energy market. "Such growth will allow the ruble to return to wide range 60-65 rubles per dollar, in which it is quite possible to think about buying foreign currency,” the expert believes.

On the other hand, Russians who decide to purchase currency now may not end up losing. According to Anastasia Ignatenko, an analyst at the TeleTrade group of companies, the past winter - spring long period growth of the ruble exchange rate is a rather rare occurrence, so it is very likely that reversal signals will appear in the coming weeks. “Therefore, I predict a weakening of the ruble closer to the second half of the month, and signals for the growth of the US dollar and euro will be the consolidation of rates above the levels of 67 and 77 rubles, respectively. The minimum targets for the rise in rates are seen to be levels of 71-72 rubles for the US dollar and 80-81 rubles for European currency," says Anastasia Ignatenko. This development of events is also supported by the dynamics of oil prices, which last weeks Neither forest fires near fields in Canada nor a serious decline in production levels in the United States can significantly accelerate the situation.

The next meeting of the Federal Assembly may also affect the dollar exchange rate in June. reserve system(Fed) USA. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve raised the base interest rate for the first time in nine years from a historical low of 0-0.25 percent to 0.25-0.5 percent, increasing the price of the dollar relative to all other currencies and commodity assets. It remains at this level even now. So far, the market is predicting at most another increase for 2016, but in June the Fed will make a decision on the rate based on important data on the American labor market as an indicator of the health of the economy.

The national currency may gain a foothold near the level of 70 rubles per dollar in the fall

Last Friday it became known that the number of jobs in the United States in April increased by 160 thousand (200 thousand was expected), and wage growth remained at the forecast level of 0.3 percent. Such dynamics mean a relatively stable situation in the American economy and can still stimulate investor interest in the dollar. According to financial analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich, the released statistics open the way for the Russian currency rate to 70 rubles per dollar.