Household demand. Consumption and savings
The source of economic recovery in 2017 was domestic demand, as stated in the February “Picture of the Economy” review. Gross fixed capital formation also increased (by 3.6%), and household expenditures on final consumption increased by 3.4%.
The latter figure is significantly higher than the growth rate of retail trade turnover last year (1.2%) and paid services to the population (0.2%).
The department explains this discrepancy by the fact that household final consumption includes a wider range of indicators: purchases of goods in foreign online stores, trips abroad, catering services.
The growth in demand was driven by several factors.
First, real wages (adjusted for inflation) increased by 3.4% last year.
"At the end of the year additional factor The growth of real wages was an active increase in wages for certain categories of public sector workers. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the growth rate of nominal wages in the social sector in November exceeded 13% y/y compared to 8.4% for the economy as a whole,” notes the Ministry of Economic Development.
The second reason is an increase in lending volumes against the backdrop of lower interest rates. The growth rate of unsecured consumer lending (except for housing) in December 2017 amounted to 11.1% compared to December 2016, the volume of housing loans issued in December increased by 15.1%.
The third positive point is the improvement in consumer sentiment. The population continues the transition from a saving behavior model to increased consumption, the Central Bank noted earlier.
In particular, households began to view the current time for major purchases more positively. This is evidenced by survey data and, as well as an increase in the production of non-food consumer goods, including clothing, furniture and musical instruments.
According to research by infoFOM, which is done for , the consumer confidence index has been on an upward trajectory over the past year.
In January, the growth of the indicator continued - it amounted to 106 points (+7 points compared to the previous month) and returned to the levels of mid-2014, which was characterized by the most optimistic views of the population in the entire history of observation.
“Growing consumer confidence, combined with an increase in real wages, creates the basis for further expansion of consumer demand in the coming months,” summarizes the Ministry of Economic Development.
An increase in social payments will help support the trend, as well as an increase in the minimum wage (minimum wage), indexation of salaries for public sector employees (including within the framework of the “May Decrees”) and an increase in pensions.
Insurance pensions, including fixed payments, for non-working pensioners have been increased by 3.7% since January 1, 2018. In accordance with the approved budget, in 2018 its expenditures on pension provision for Russians will increase by 279 billion rubles. and will amount to 7.15 trillion rubles. Expenditures on social benefits will increase by 11.8 billion rubles. and will amount to 981 billion rubles.
An increase in the volume of social support for the population will occur as part of the “demographic package” of President Vladimir Putin. It includes payments for the first and second child, extension of the maternity capital program until the end of 2021 and expansion of possibilities for its use, as well as a preferential mortgage program.
According to the Minister of Finance, the average salary of public sector workers “will be increased by 23% from January.”
IN explanatory note to the draft federal budget it is noted that the implementation of decree No. 597 “On measures for the implementation of state social policy", in 2018, 280.1 billion rubles will be spent. The regions are allocated funds for partial compensation of additional expenses in 2018 in the amount of 80.4 billion rubles.
According to Maxim Topilin, the regions have included about 210 billion rubles in their budgets. to increase salaries for public sector employees as part of the May decrees.
In addition, from January 1, 2018, the government increased the salaries of civil servants and employees of the public sector of the economy employed in federal institutions by 4%. According to the Ministry of Labor, the increase will affect more than 2 million people.
In 2018, 32.5 billion rubles will be allocated from the federal budget for these purposes. This was reported to Gazeta.Ru by the press service of the Ministry of Finance.
The authorities are also raising the minimum wage to the subsistence level. The process was supposed to be carried out in two stages. Since January 1 of this year, it has increased from 7,800 to 9,489 rubles (85% of 11,163 rubles - the living wage of the working-age population for the second quarter of 2017).
The second increase - up to 100% of the subsistence level - was planned to take place from January 1, 2019. But the president ordered this to be done as of May 1 of this year.
Maxim Topliin said that increasing the minimum wage from May 1 will require an additional 39.3 billion rubles. “Of this, the volume of funds from the federal budget is 7.5 billion rubles, regional and municipal budgets are 31.8 billion rubles,” the minister explained.
The May increase in the minimum wage will affect 1.6 million workers in the budget sector of the economy and 1.4 million workers in the real sector of the economy.
This set of measures should solve the problem of reducing poverty in the country. Demographic policy measures, together with bringing the minimum wage to the level of the subsistence level of the working-age population, will ensure a decrease in the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level by at least 1 percentage point, the Ministry of Economic Development estimates the effect.
Social programs are aimed mainly at low-income segments of the population, who spend almost all their income on consumption, notes the deputy director of the Development Center Institute.
“And typically these people buy the cheapest products, e.g. Russian medicines, not imported. Therefore, of course, almost all of this money goes to domestic demand for products from domestic manufacturers,” the expert emphasizes.
Yulia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research, agrees that increased spending will have a big positive effect on the economy.
“There are about 20 million state employees in our country. Accordingly, these people will have the opportunity to spend more. Consumption was higher than economic growth last year. This year we expect GDP growth of 2% (with good oil prices) and rapid growth in consumption, which will be one and a half to two times higher than the economic growth rate,” she said.
In terms of sentiment, these measures are producing a positive result, says the chief economist. But, in her opinion, most likely, an increase in retail lending will be a specific lever to support economic growth.
“The transmission mechanism will be that people, expecting a larger social package from the state, will be more active in taking out loans and financing consumption,” she suggests.
It is worth emphasizing that an increase in social spending and wage indexation does not automatically mean an increase in budgetary risks. At the end of last year, the federal budget deficit amounted to only 1.5% of GDP (1.3 trillion rubles). This year, if oil prices remain in the range of $60-70 per barrel, according to the financial and economic bloc of the government, the budget may even turn out to be in surplus. In addition, another 2-2.5 trillion rubles. The National Welfare Fund will be replenished.
Object characteristics of the category of consumption and savings advocated by the private economy closed type. This means that government expenditures and net export expenditures are not included in the overall expenditure profile. Under these conditions, GDP is defined as the sum of C + and. Where C is household expenses for the purchase of goods and services, and is the amount of investment costs.
1. Considering the first question, we draw attention to the fact that one of the links in modern macroeconomic models is the goods market. The structural and logical diagram of teaching the first question has a general form (Fig. 1).
Any national market consists of certain individual markets. Conventionally, we can say that it includes the market for goods and services, the market for scientific and technical products, the labor market, the financial market, and the like. Each of the listed markets has its own system of organization.
Rice. 1.
In macroeconomics, the entire set of markets for individual goods, which are the subject of macroeconomic analysis, is aggregated into a single market for goods, in which only one type of goods is bought and sold. This good can be used both as a commodity and as a means of production.
The market for goods and paid services is a system of economic relations between business entities regarding their movement. This movement leads to the satisfaction of consumer and investment demand of business entities.
Consumer demand - is the effective demand of households for:
Current consumption goods (35-40%);
Durable goods (15-20%);
Services (35-40%).
The structure of consumer spending itself is variable and this change is influenced by many factors.
Investment demand - this is the demand of the business sector for goods to restore worn-out capital and increase real capital.
The basis for the interaction of firms and households in the goods market is the proportion in which income (Y) is distributed between consumption (C) and savings (B).
Buyers in the goods market are the main macroeconomic entities: the household sector, the business sector, government and foreign. Let's look at what determines the volume of demand.
More than half of final aggregate demand comes from household demand. The share of production of consumer goods in developed countries is more than 60%.
Consumption priorities are different, but the most characteristic groups of goods and services for a family can be identified: food, clothing, housing, education, medical care, recreation, transport, etc.
The amount of consumption depends on family income, whether services are paid or free.
Poor families spend their income on essential goods. As income increases, the share of food expenses decreases. Expenses on clothing, durable goods, and vacations are growing faster than income.
For developing countries, food costs account for the majority of income. The population of Ukraine is characterized by a large share of the poor and, as a result, spends almost all of its income on food and the purchase of essential goods. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine and calculate the current expenses of the population of our country, since the high proportion of the shadow economy does not allow us to trace the flows of goods and money.
Household demand is determined by the following factors:
Income from participation in production;
Taxes and transfer payments;
Size of property, income from property;
The degree of differentiation of the population by income level and size of property;
Number and age structure of the population.
Consumption represents the individual and joint use of consumer goods, which is aimed at satisfying the material and spiritual needs of people. Its amount depends on income.
Saving - economic process associated with investment. This is the part of income that remains unused after funds have been allocated from firms for current production needs, and to households for consumer needs.
The distribution of income (U) for consumption (C) and savings (B) is carried out by economic entities taking into account:
First, preferences between current consumption and future consumption;
Secondly, the current interest rate.
Savings are carried out by both firms and households.
Investment (I) is carried out by firms in order to expand production and increase profits.
Equilibrium in the market for goods and paid services in a closed model of the economy, in which the activities of the state are not taken into account, is achieved when the supply of savings is equal to investment demand.
The supply of savings (B) is a function of income (Y):
The relationship between B and C is direct.
Investment demand (I) is a function of the market interest rate (and):
The relationship between investment demand (I) and interest (i) is inverse (the more and, the less I).
Equilibrium in the market for goods and paid services is expressed by the formula:
Movement in the goods market makes it possible to more fully satisfy the needs for consumption and investment. Thus, general equilibrium with a constant price level in the markets for goods and services is possible if the equilibrium conditions are met in each of the markets.
2. Considering the second question, “Consumption and savings as functions of income,” let us pay attention to the structural and logical diagram of the interaction between consumption and savings:
Optimization of macroeconomic proposals is achieved through the mechanism of supply and demand. Consider the problem of matching supply and demand in accordance with the owners of capital and labor.
Firms, whose administration acts as representatives of capital, produce products, sell them and earn money for it and create demand for labor. Workers offer their labor, receive remuneration for this and create demand for manufactured products. Based on the interaction of firms and households in the market for goods and services, the proportion of GNP distribution between consumption and savings is determined.
Rice. 2.
Consumption (in value form) is the amount of money that is spent by the population on the purchase of material goods and services.
Thus, everything that does not relate to savings, is not included in payments in the form of taxes, is not in foreign accounts - this is consumption.
People tend to delay consumption today with the hope that consumption in the future will benefit them more than it does today.
The primary unit of consumption is the family. It shapes the volume and structure of consumption. A family household is characterized by a general consumer budget, housing and accumulated property.
Population consumption- one of the main components that determine the development of the economy. Consumer spending accounts for between 2/3 and % of gross domestic product. They shape consumer behavior, which is a kind of indexer of the cyclical development of the economy.
To assess consumer behavior, an indicator is used - the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICH). It is included in the main macroeconomic indicators on the basis of which economic cycle forecasts are made. This is important both for short-term planning of any business and for determining the economic policy of the state.
The consumer sentiment index was developed in 1946 by SPIA. However, its intensive use began in the 70s. The practical use of the index for analyzing the Ukrainian economy began in 1994
Saving- This is deferred consumption or that part of income that is not currently consumed. They are equal to the difference between income and current consumption.
Savings are carried out by both firms and households. Firms save to invest in expanding production and increasing profits. Households save for a number of reasons, including: to provide for old age and pass on inheritance to children, to accumulate funds for the purchase of land, real estate and important durable items.
Savings and investments are carried out independently of each other, by different economic entities and for various reasons.
How are profits allocated between consumption and savings? In answering this question, it is important, first of all, to characterize the general properties of the consumption function. It shows the ratio of consumer spending to income as it moves.
Household personal consumption (C) forms the most important component of effective demand. But if we remember that savings (B) represent the excess of income over consumer spending, it becomes clear that when analyzing the factors that determine consumption, we simultaneously consider the factors on which savings depend:
where B is income;
C - consumption; B - savings.
This equation shows that part of the income goes to personal consumption C, and the excess takes the form of savings B. At the same time, society’s expenses can be represented, on the one hand, as demand for consumer needs C, and on the other, for investment needs I:
In a formalized form, consumption can be expressed by the following function:
However, income is the main factor determining not only consumption, but also savings:
Research has found that consumption moves in the same direction as income. The dependence of consumption and saving on income is called the propensity to consume and save. Consider the average and marginal propensity. Average propensity to consume APC is the share of tax-free income allocated to consumption.
where C is the amount of consumption, Ud is tax-free income.
Similarly, we can look at the average propensity to save (APS). Average Propensity to Save APS is the proportion of tax-free income allocated to savings.
The marginal propensity to consume expresses the ratio of any change in consumption to the change in income that caused it. Mathematically it looks like this:
MPC shows how much of the additional income is allocated to additional consumption. The sum of the marginal propensities to consume and save under any change in tax-free income is equal to 1 or 100%.
The marginal propensity to save is the ratio of any change in saving to the change in income that caused it.
How are these indicators determined? Let's consider a table hypothetically and analyze it.
The first column contains groups of families depending on the level of average per capita annual income. When moving from group B to group C, income increased by 300 gr.od., that is, from 900 to 1200 gr.od. At the same time, consumption increased by only 240 g.o.d. (from 900 to 1140 deg.). Thus, the share of consumption in the increase in income can be calculated as follows: 240/300 = 0.8, that is, when moving from group B to group C, from each additional monetary unit of income, 80% goes to consumption and 20% to savings, the marginal the propensity to consume in this segment is 0.8.
MPC is calculated similarly when moving from any income level to the next.
Both consumption and savings are growing absolutely, but the relative share of consumption is increasingly decreasing, and the share of savings is growing. So, according to the “basic psychological law,” the value of the marginal propensity to consume is between zero and one:
From here we draw conclusions:
If MPC = 0, then the entire increase in income will be saved, because saving is that part of income that is not consumed;
If MPC = /, then this means that the increase in income will be divided equally between consumption and saving;
If MPC = 1, then the entire increase in income will be spent on consumption.
When moving from group B to group C, income increased by 300 GR, but savings increased by only 80 GR.
The marginal propensity to save will be calculated as the increase in savings to the increase in income: 60/300 = 0.2.
When moving from group B to group C, the marginal propensity to save will be 0.2.
It is easy to see that if C + S = Y (i.e. total income is divided into consumption and savings). Then the sum of the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to save is equal to 1:
Having defined the function of consumption and saving, we can now argue that the central factor that influences their level is income. As a rule, as income increases, both consumption and savings of the population increase. At the same time, in conditions of stable economic growth, MPC tends to decrease, and MPS tends to increase. In conditions of inflation, another process is observed, namely: MPC tends to increase, and MPS tends to decrease. When the economic situation is unstable and deposits are not protected from inflation, the population begins to increase consumption, especially of durable goods. A unique type of saving in such conditions is the purchase by the population of goods such as jewelry, furs, cars, dachas, etc.
In addition to these factors, consumption and savings can be influenced by:
Increase in taxes, which reduces consumption and savings, increases in prices (causes different reactions to consumption and savings among population groups with different incomes)
Increase in contributions by social insurance(may cause a reduction in savings);
Excessive demand (can contribute to a sharp increase in consumption);
Increased supply in the market (contributes to a reduction in savings);
Income growth (affects the growth of consumption and savings).
Macroeconomic income involves constructing the consumption and savings function at the societal level.
Using the input data from the table, let's turn to a graphical analysis of the propensity to consume.
Graphically, the consumption function is presented in Fig. 2.
How is this graph constructed? The x-axis shows income available for use. On the y-axis - consumption expenditures exactly corresponded to income, then this would be reflected by any point belonging to a straight line drawn at an angle of 45. But in reality, such a coincidence does not occur, and only part of the income is spent on consumption. Therefore, the consumption curve deviates downward from the 450 line. The intersection of line 450 and the consumption curve at point B means the level of zero saving. To the left of this point one can observe negative savings (in this case, expenses exceed income), and to the right - positive savings. The amount of consumption is determined by the distance from the abscissa axis of the consumption curve in line 450. For example, with an income of 2400 gr.od. the situation is as follows: segment D1D shows the amount of consumption, and segment DD2 shows the amount of savings.
Fig 2.
The saving function, which is a derivative of the consumption function, is treated similarly. The savings function shows the ratio of savings to income in their movement (Fig. 3). Since savings are that part of income that is not consumed, the savings schedule complements the consumption schedule. This is due to the fact that savings and consumption in total will give the amount of income.
Rice. 3.
How is the savings schedule constructed? To do this, you need to carry out a number of simple operations: first, imagine the x-axis in Fig. 3. like the 45° line from fig. 2; secondly, it is possible on the 45° line from Fig. 2. place a mirror - the graph reflected there will be the image of savings in Fig. 3. Point B is the level of income when saving is zero. Below it is negative savings, above it is positive savings.
The marginal propensity to consume MPC, as noted above, reflects the amount of additional consumption caused by additional income. On a graph, this is expressed by the slope of the consumption curve: a steep slope means high MPC, and a smooth slope means low MPC. MPC is nothing more than an expression of the steepness of the slope of the consumption line. Returning to the consumption schedule, we can conclude that the greater the propensity to consume, the more the consumption line will approach the 45 line and, accordingly, vice versa, the lower the propensity to consume, the further the consumption line is from the 45 ° line.
Observing behavior households, it can be stated that the factors determining their demand in the goods market include: 1) income from participation in production; 2) taxes and transfer payments; 3) size of property; 4) income from property. Taking into account that the household sector is an aggregate value, two more factors should be added to these factors: 5) the degree of differentiation of the population by income level and size of property; 6) size and age structure of the population. The first two factors are combined into the concept of “disposable income”. The last two are exogenous parameters in the short run. Depending on which of the remaining factors - disposable income, size of property or its profitability - is considered the most significant, it is possible to construct several varieties of the household demand function in the goods market, called the “consumption function”.
Consumption function. J.M. Keynes assumed that household consumption depends on the absolute value of current income. He expressed the nature of this dependence as follows: “The basic psychological law, the existence of which we can be quite confident not only from a priori considerations, based on our knowledge of human nature, but also on the basis of a detailed study of past experience, is that people are inclined, as a rule, increase your
consumption as income increases, but not to the same extent as income increases.”
It follows from the “basic psychological law” that the value of the marginal propensity to consume in the household sector is determined not only by the individual propensity to consume of individual households, but also by the distribution of national income between them.
Households make independent decisions about the direction of using not all, but only disposable income
At the same time, calculations based on actual data carried out over longer periods of time do not show a decrease in the average consumption rate. One of the first to draw attention to this was S. Kuznets, who obtained the following results for the USA. “The Kuznets Riddle” has intensified research into the nature of the dependence of household consumer spending on their income. Several versions have been proposed to explain the results obtained by S. Kuznets. According to one of them, the consumption function with a constant average norm consumption is a statistical mirage that arises due to the fact that the autonomous component in the “real” consumption function increases over time due to the growth in the volume of property.
According to another version, there are two functions of household consumption: short and long
periods. This is explained by the fact that consumers are reluctant to reduce consumption: it is easier to reduce the share of income saved than to reduce the achieved level of consumption.
Moving from the short to the long run when examining the determinants of household consumption, we find that income y and property v merge into a single source of consumption. In some periods the latter is less than income and then the size of property increases, in others it exceeds income due to a reduction in the volume of property.
IN initial period During its existence, the household consumes more than it receives as a borrower (the volume of assets is negative). In the years leading up to retirement, income exceeds expenses, which is accompanied by an increase in the size of assets. The accumulated property allows one to maintain a stable level of consumption during the retirement period of life, exceeding the amount of the pension. This description of the behavior of households in the goods market is contained in the concepts of “life cycle”1 and “permanent income”, which have a common microeconomic justification.
The difference between the concepts of “life cycle” and “permanent income” lies mainly in different types of use of available statistical data to reflect the dependence of current consumption on total income over a lifetime.
IN life cycle concepts income from labor and property are distinguished.
According to the concept of “permanent income” Households receive all their income from assets. Labor income in this case is interpreted as income from a specific type of property - human capital. Its value is equal to the current value of all income from labor for all years of an individual’s labor activity.
From the standpoint of the concept of permanent income, the Keynesian consumption function is an illusion that arises due to the fact that permanent income is not directly reflected in the national accounting system. The main conclusion from the concepts of life cycle and permanent income is that the volume of demand of households in the goods market does not depend as much on their current income as J.M. believed. Keynes. A. Modigliani and M. Friedman draw attention to the desire of households to keep consumption at a constant level by changing the volume of property.
However, in reality, consumers are not always free to borrow and lend money within their multi-period budget constraints, as assumed in these concepts. Credit institutions are reluctant to provide loans solely based on expected future income. From clients with
With low current income, banks require collateral for a loan or limit its size and timing. Under such conditions, current income has a greater impact on consumption than the entire stream of expected income over the life of the household.
A classic of economic analysis is model of D. M. Keynes , in which the starting point is current (absolute) income, the distribution of which between consumption and savings is carried out on the basis of two psychological motives: consumption conservatism and liquidity preference. Analysis of the propensity to consume and save allowed Keynes to derive the following functions of consumption and savings. The consumption function has the form:
where Ca is the value of autonomous (independent of income) consumption ; Cy is the marginal propensity to consume; Ý - disposable income.
Saving function -: ,
where Sa is the value of autonomous (independent of income) savings Sy is the marginal propensity to save; Ý - disposable income.
If the consumption function depends on income and the volume of property, then the saving function is expressed by the dependence according to which an increase in the size of property increases consumption by reducing savings. A practical test based on statistical data of the Keynesian consumption function confirmed its effectiveness only for a short (2-4 years) period and for population groups with low and middle income. This necessitated the study by D. Dusenbery of the consumption function from the standpoint of not absolute, but relative income . The essence of D. Dusenbery's concept is that consumption depends on income only to the extent that an individual strives to bring the level of his own well-being closer to the level of the elite group. Relative income is calculated as the ratio of absolute (current) income to the average income of the social group to which the subject belongs. If, over a certain period of time, an individual’s income increases or decreases, then at first consumption remains relatively unchanged, but if this trend continues or if income stabilizes for a long time, it may increase or decrease significantly.
Another consumption function model is permanent income model , developed by M. Friedman. It is based on the assumption that households strive to maintain consumption at a constant level regardless of fluctuations in current income, although they resort to its adjustment taking into account changes in the economic environment (recession, growth, boom).
The consumption function (C1(Yp)) in accordance with this concept looks like this:
C= Ypb ×Yp (1-b) ,
where (Yp) is permanent income, CYp is the marginal propensity to consume taking into account permanent income , b - share of future income increment added to current income, 0< b < 1.
The economic meaning of this expression is that the marginal propensity to consume in the short run is less than in the long run and with an increase in current income per unit, consumption increases by CYpb units in the current year and another C Yp (1-b) in the next year.
Another consumption function model is "life cycle theory" F. Modigliani. The basic premise underlying this concept is that households make decisions about the volume of consumption in the current period based not on current income, but on the basis of the expected income that they will receive during their lifetime, including income from the use of property.
Key Takeaway from Life Cycle and Permanent Income Concepts is that the volume of household demand in the goods market depends on income to a lesser extent than D.M. believed. Keynes. and can be maintained at a constant level due to changes in the volume of property, as A. Modigliani and M. Friedman revealed. However, in reality, consumers are not always able to freely borrow money, due to the reluctance of credit institutions to provide loans against expected future income, which again brings current income to the fore in determining the volume of current and future consumption.
The consumption function is the object of analysis by neoclassicists. According to their theory, the distribution of income for consumption and savings is the result of the implementation of individual long-term plans, according to which the individual himself determines the amount of income, distributing, in accordance with the principle of maximizing welfare, his time between work and free time. Therefore, the relationship between the increase in income and the increase in consumption (marginal propensity to consume) depends on whether the increase in income (as a result of an increase in price or labor productivity) occurs only in one or in all periods. In the first case, a change in income will have virtually no effect on the volume of consumption, and in the second, consumption will increase by the amount of the increase in income.
Household consumption constitutes the largest and most stable component of aggregate demand. Ultimately, the purpose of economic activity is the well-being of people. At the same time, not all incoming income is spent in the current period. Many circumstances lead to families putting part of their income into savings, expanding the possibilities for tomorrow's consumption by abandoning the current one. The incentives that force people to save can be very different - deferred expenses for large purchases, vacations, children's education, for a “rainy day,” etc. Obviously, the choice in favor of tomorrow's use of today's income will change the amount of current demand presented by households.
Most significant factor, which determines the amount of consumption, and, accordingly, the demand presented by the population, is the amount of disposable income (remaining with households after taxation) income. As it increases, so does the amount of expenses allocated
for consumption. At the same time, consumption growth is slower than income growth. That is, the ratio of the consumed portion of income to the disposable portion, or the average propensity to consume, decreases as income increases.
Where APC (average propensity to consume) - average propensity to consume; WITH (consumption) - consumption; U (yield) - income.
As J.M. Keynes argued, “as real income grows, as a rule, the proportion of that part of income that goes into savings turns out to be higher. Whether, however, this proportion is greater or less, we can still see the basic psychological law inherent in any modern society, is that with the growth of real income it will not increase its consumption by the entire absolute amount of the increase and, therefore, a larger absolute amount will be saved.”
Since we are talking about macroeconomics, aggregate demand will be equal to the total demand of all households, and its value, accordingly, will depend on total income and the differentiation of its distribution. The higher the wealth inequality in a society, the less income will be converted into consumer demand.
A certain portion of consumer spending represents autonomous consumption, i.e. consumption, the amount of which does not depend on changes in income. It consists of a set of goods necessary to cover priority basic needs, perceived as such at a given level of economic development. Household consumption in general is one of the least mobile components of aggregate demand. People find it difficult to change their usual consumer behavior. A decrease in income is more likely to lead to a decrease or complete refusal from savings rather than giving up consumer habits; moreover, it is to compensate for lost income that previously made savings are used. Thus, the decline in real income at the beginning of 2015 not only did not force Russians to abandon the usual food basket, but did not even lead to a decrease in mobile communications expenses.
A portion of households' disposable income is set aside as savings. Since the saved and consumed part in total constitute the distributed family income, then for savings the opposite relationships apply to consumption. The average propensity to consume increases faster than income increases.
Where APS (average propensity to save) - average propensity to save; S (savings) - saving.
As noted, there may be a variety of reasons that cause people to forego current consumption in order to use these resources in the future. An important factor influencing the propensity to save is the interest rate. The higher it is, the greater the amount of future benefits that can be received in exchange for renouncing current expenses. But in any case, people will give up today's use of income only after the most significant and pressing needs have been covered. Accordingly, the higher the level of disposable income in a country, the higher, other things being equal, will be the volume of savings. However, in a rich socially oriented economy (free education and healthcare, high unemployment benefits and pensions), incentives to save fall even with high incomes and interest rates. Saving for a rainy day makes no sense if you are not very sure that such days will come.
The relationship between income, consumption and savings is shown in Fig. 8.1.
Rice. 8.1.
The 45° bisector consists of the points at which households' disposable income equals their expenditures. The consumption graph before the intersection with the bisector shows the level of consumption exceeding disposable income. This situation is possible only due to previous savings and the sale of property. This volume of consumption corresponds to negative savings. After crossing the bisector, households no longer consume all of their incoming income, and positive savings are formed. The slope of the consumption line will be determined by the marginal propensity to consume, which is equal to the share of consumption in the last received unit of income.
1. FUNCTIONAL ROLE OF TOTAL CONSUMER DEMAND IN MACROECONOMIC 16 REGULATION.
1.1. Genesis of studies of the regulatory impact of aggregate demand on the system of macroeconomic indicators
1.2. Functional impact of aggregate demand on the consumer market.
2. TOTAL CONSUMER DEMAND IN THE SYSTEM OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY PRIORITIES 51.
2.1. The effect of government spending on aggregate consumer demand.
2.2. The mechanism of influence of tax policy on the dynamics of the consumer market.
2.3. The role of state monetary policy in regulating aggregate household demand.
3. TRANSFORMATIONAL RESTRUCTURING OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLD DEMAND IN THE MARKET OF 97 CONSUMER GOODS.
3.1. The place and role of households in the regional economy
3.2. Factors in the formation of aggregate household demand in the local consumer market.
3.3. State stimulation of investment orientation of aggregate household demand in conditions of sustainable development.
Recommended list of dissertations
Economic instruments of state policy for stimulating aggregate demand in the conditions of post-crisis development of the Russian economy 2005, Candidate of Economic Sciences Laskova, Tatyana Sergeevna
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The determining influence of population income on economic growth at the stage of post-crisis development 2003, Candidate of Economic Sciences Kuschey, Natalya Aleksandrovna
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Introduction of the dissertation (part of the abstract) on the topic “Aggregate demand of households as a factor in the development of the consumer market in a transformational economy”
Relevance of the research topic. The most important condition for the formation of an effective consumer market in Russia is the market restructuring of the aggregate demand of households in the direction of increasing the degree of their economic freedom, purchasing activity, rational use available income to implement the consumption function. Household demand, which dominates the goods market and determines a significant part of the final aggregate demand, is not only a factor in the development of the consumer market, but also significantly affects the level and structure of domestic production of goods and services. Reflecting the degree of material well-being - the level of income and the development of the needs of the population, the aggregate demand of the population, at the same time, is the most important object of the state's macroeconomic policy.
For the theory and practice of the transformational Russian economy, of particular importance is the substantiation of the concept of restructuring the aggregate demand of households, corresponding to the stage of post-crisis economic growth, replacing the strategy of their behavior within the framework of a catastrophically low standard of living, inherent in the crisis period of the domestic economy and aimed at survival. Ultimately, the effectiveness of the activities of both individual economic agents (households, firms) and the entire national macroeconomic system, as well as the effective inclusion of Russia in the globalizing world economy, depends on the adequacy of this concept to the existing realities of Russian reality and the nature of institutional transformations. The system-forming element of this concept should be the mechanism of government incentives to restructure the existing structure of aggregate demand in the direction of switching it from consumer markets to investment markets.
A theoretical analysis of the direction of the transformational restructuring of aggregate household demand actualizes the change in the vector of economic policy from the production component to the social one, which is clearly visible in the current Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly: “Together we must solve the most pressing problems for the citizens of the country. This is, first of all, the quality and availability of housing, education, medical care. I consider providing citizens with affordable housing one of the most pressing tasks.”1 All of the above elements of aggregate household demand are now becoming dominant for the state’s economic policy and reflect the need to develop a system of measures to effectively restructure the existing consumption of Russian households with average incomes.
The theoretical justification for the need for government stimulation of aggregate household demand in the consumer market began during the Great Depression in the United States. Representatives of this direction of economic thought are J. Clark, J. Keynes, P. Samuelson, E. Hansen, J. Hicks, E. Chamberlin. An alternative point of view is shared by O. Williamson, M. Friedman, and F. Hayek. Economic and statistical direction that originated in the 20-30s. XX century, analyzes the functional dependence of demand on specific factors, presented by K. Kumpans, H. Theil, J. Tinbergen, R. Frisch.
Fundamental Analysis characteristics of consumption and its impact on aggregate consumer demand was carried out in the studies of K. Lancaster, N. Leff. The key factors influencing the aggregate demand of the population and the choice of individuals have been studied in detail by J. Duesenberry, J. Neumann and O. Morgenstern, G. Simon, A. Sen, respectively. Empirical studies that questioned many of the postulates of neoclassical theory, within the framework of which alternative features of the behavior of economic agents in the process of rationalizing their choice were identified, were carried out by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky.
Fundamental analysis of the problem of the influence of government tax policy on household consumption and aggregate demand
1 Message Federal Assembly Russian Federation// Russian newspaper. 2004. May 26. reflected in the works of V. Petty and G. Hotteling. Analysis of consumption, as well as state economic policy in the field of formation of aggregate demand and savings in a transformational society, was carried out in the studies of L. Abalkin, S. Glazyev, R. Nureyev, E. Yasin, as well as in the works of representatives of the Rostov school: O. Alekseeva, V. Belousova, N. Kuschiy, O. Mamedova, I. Soldatova, E. Tkacheva, S. Shaginyan and others. The effectiveness and variability of tax policy in the field of stimulating aggregate demand of the population, its impact on economic and social development are revealed by K. Astapov, A .Illarionov, Ya.Kornai.
Features of household savings and their relationship with the aggregate demand of households in the consumer market were analyzed by S. Avdasheva, E. Boyarkina, M. Krasilnikova, A. Lutsenko, V. Mekhryakov, S. Nikolaenko, V. Radaev, A. Filonenko, A. Yakovlev . The mechanisms for implementing savings strategies of the Russian population in the transformation period, their connections with aggregate demand were identified by N. Akindinova, Yu. Kashin, D. Stebkov and others.
The influence of the level of consumer spending on the development of the agro-industrial market in Russia in the transformation period, national food security was assessed by O. Belokrylova, V. Garkav, N. Ketova, S. Kiselev, V. Kuznetsov, R. Romashkin, E. Tropinova L. Usenko and others. The impact of shadowization of economic relations on the structure and features of the formation of aggregate demand for modern stage studied in the works of E. Varshavskaya, V. Ispravnikov, V. Kulikov, I. Klyamkin, T. Maleva, R. Ryvkina.
However, despite such close attention of economists to the study of problems related to the aggregate demand of households, a holistic concept of substantiating the relationships between macroeconomic indicators of the standard of living of the population, the economic development of the country and government policy in the field of formation of aggregate consumer demand in the transformation period has not yet been formed. The theoretical lack of development of the mechanism of government incentives for the restructuring of aggregate consumer demand in the conditions of post-crisis economic growth remains a serious obstacle to increasing the efficiency of the Russian economic system. The above considerations indicate that the topic of the dissertation research is theoretically relevant and practically significant.
Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the dissertation is to, on the basis of a historical and genetic analysis of the theories and practices of the formation of aggregate household demand in a transformational economy, to identify the possibilities of its real impact on the state of the consumer market, to determine priority directions of economic policy for state stimulation of its investment orientation and to develop differentiated mechanisms its effective restructuring at the macro and meso levels in the conditions of post-crisis growth of the Russian economy.
In accordance with the set goal, the work solves problems aggregated into three blocks:
I. Analysis of aggregate household demand from the perspective of various schools and concepts:
Analyze the possibilities, advantages and failures of the monetarist and Keynesian options for macroeconomic policies in the field of formation of aggregate household demand;
Identify the functional role of aggregate household demand in ensuring equilibrium in the consumer market.
II. Justification of the patterns of development of aggregate household demand in the system of priorities of the state macroeconomic policy:
Assess the effectiveness of modern government policy to stimulate aggregate household demand and develop directions for its improvement;
To analyze models of savings behavior of the population in a transformational economy and identify their role in expanding the investment component of the aggregate demand of households with average incomes.
III. Study of household demand factors in the local consumer market and the mechanisms of its stimulating impact on regional development:
Classify the main characteristics of the aggregate demand of households in a transformational economy at the meso level and identify the features of its formation in the consumer markets of the Rostov region;
To model the mechanism of influence of household strategies on the restructuring of aggregate consumer demand of the region's population.
Object of study. The object of the dissertation research is the aggregate demand of households as a factor in the development of the market for goods and services in a transformational economy and state economic policy for its effective restructuring.
Subject of research. The subject of the study is the mechanisms for the formation of aggregate demand and its restructuring, ensuring the reorientation of the vector of the economic potential of households from markets for consumer goods to investment ones, as well as instruments for its state support, taking into account the regional specifics of local markets for goods and services.
The theoretical and methodological basis of this study is the fundamental concepts of formation and stimulation of aggregate consumer demand, presented in classical and modern works domestic and foreign economists, based on a system-functional approach to the study of the patterns of formation of consumer strategies of households at the macro- and meso-levels, as well as program and forecast developments of state authorities of Russia and the Rostov region in the framework of stimulating aggregate demand. The development of the author's concept is based on the methodology of neoclassical theory, monetarism, institutional theory, theory of transition economy, etc.
The instrumental and methodological apparatus of the study includes principles that ensure the possibility of applying system analysis to the development of the problem of effective restructuring of the aggregate demand of households in the unity of its subject-object and functional-structural aspects. When developing a strategy for household behavior in consumer markets, various methods of scientific knowledge were used, including historical-genetic, economic-statistical, methods of economic forecasting and modeling. Each of these particular methods has been used adequately functionality and resolution abilities for solving relevant stage research problems.
The informational and empirical basis for the study was the factual information contained in the works of Russian and foreign scientists on the problems of restructuring the aggregate demand of households, official reference and statistical materials of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, Rostoblkomstat, and data from housing mortgage lending agencies. As well as the results of sociological surveys published in domestic and foreign scientific literature, in periodicals, including those presented on the official web pages of leading research centers, organizations and institutes.
The working hypothesis of the dissertation research is to substantiate the objective relationship between the sustainability of economic development and government support for restructuring the existing structure of aggregate household demand and the development of a differentiated economic policy in the field of investment orientation of aggregate demand at the regional level in a transformational economy. State stimulation of the demand of households with average incomes for mortgage loans for housing construction, primarily at the regional level, acts as a generator of economic growth in related industries and ensures the sustainable development of both the regional and national economies as a whole.
Basic provisions submitted for defense.
1. The structure and dynamics of aggregate demand of households, as the main component of the aggregate demand of all economic entities of the national economy, are determined by the general economic situation, the level and dynamics of official and shadow incomes of the population, state fiscal policy, inflation processes, form the basis of the consumer market in a transformational economy and determine the trends of its development. In turn, the needs of the population for a particular product form the aggregate demand of households, and its scale is determined by the solvency of consumption. In a transformational economy, the limited effective demand of households is the main factor restraining the development of the consumer market.
2. The state of household demand in the Russian economy in conditions of underdeveloped economic structure, low degree of social protection of its subjects, increasing differentiation of the population by income level is adequately described by the Keynesian concept of absolute income for short-term dynamics, when the level of consumer demand is functionally linked to the amount of current income. The negative component of the transformational restructuring of aggregate consumer demand in the context of the transition from a command economy to a market economy is manifested both in the general decline in incomes of the majority of the Russian population, which is the main limiter of aggregate consumer demand in a transformational economy, and in the expansion characteristic of countries with a low level of economic development share of essential consumer goods in the structure of aggregate demand. This requires, on the one hand, stimulating aggregate consumer demand using fiscal and monetary policy instruments in accordance with the Keynesian concept of state regulation of the economy, and on the other, its effective restructuring towards increasing the share of the investment component.
3. Differentiation of the population by level of income determines significant differences in the demand strategies of households with high, middle and low incomes in consumer goods markets. The balance of their interaction should contribute harmonious development regional consumer market in the conditions of a transformation period, which requires a flexible economic policy that takes into account the interests of households with different levels income. For households with high and middle incomes, it seems important to strengthen the incentives for private investment, supplemented by government co-financing, for example, within the framework of a regional mortgage lending program for housing construction. At the same time, it is necessary to simultaneously intensify domestic demand from low-income households through the socialization of retail trading network and providing social housing to low-income citizens.
4. The consumer market, defined as the sphere of trade in personal consumption items, has significant regional and ethnic specifics associated with its territorial localization. The dynamics of the volumes and structure of consumer demand in a transformational economy, due to increased differentiation of households by level of income received, is a determining factor in the development of the consumer market at the meso level. At the same time, one should take into account the increasing competition of regional markets and the possibility of shifting part of the increased demand of the population for goods and services offered in neighboring consumer markets or by commodity producers from other regions in the local market. To balance supply and demand in regional consumer markets, along with measures to stimulate aggregate household demand, it is necessary to simultaneously stimulate aggregate supply. On the part of the state, this is manifested in the development of a public procurement system aimed at strengthening the position of regional producers of goods and services, and the implementation of various social programs, in particular, mortgage lending for housing construction, which will have a positive impact on the formation of a capacious domestic consumer market in the region.
5. Restructuring of aggregate household demand in the post-crisis economy is carried out through reorientation of the vector of its development from consumer markets to investment markets for households with high and average incomes. The economic mechanism for changing household strategies in this direction is government support mortgage lending for housing construction. Such a restructuring of aggregate household demand in the long term will have an acceleration effect on the dynamics of investment and the acceleration of economic growth, and, consequently, on the market of goods and services.
6. The replacement of survival strategies for households with average incomes by development strategies at the meso level is ensured by the development and implementation of an active regional policy that stimulates the investment restructuring of household demand and includes both the formation of an institutional and legal framework that unblocks administrative barriers in housing construction, and instruments of state- private co-financing of housing construction. These measures should ensure an influx of investment into the region, as well as help accelerate the pace of economic development and the formation of a large consumer market in the region.
The scientific novelty of the dissertation research lies in the conceptual substantiation of the features of the mechanism of influence of aggregate household demand on the development of the consumer market in a transformational economy, the identification of factors of its regional differentiation and the development of effective state economic policy instruments for its restructuring, the implementation of which is aimed at increasing the effectiveness of decisions made in the field of increasing living standards of the population and its aggregate demand as an indicator of macroeconomic stabilization. Specifically, the elements of scientific novelty are manifested in the following:
1. The conducted historical and genetic analysis of the possibilities of macroeconomic policy in the field of formation of aggregate household demand from the classical school to modern theories of economic development showed that the study of the functional role of household demand in a transformation economy is shifting to the field of studying personal factors. Based on this, the following are proposed as the main methodological principles for studying the characteristics of consumer demand in a transformation economy:
The initial impetus for economic development is always the needs that form consumer demand;
People's needs and ways to satisfy them are not always possible to explain from the point of view of the rationality of decisions made;
The desire to approach a higher social rank plays a role big role than one’s own tastes and personal preferences in the formation of needs;
The lower the income, the less role savings play in the economic model of consumer behavior.
2. Factors associated with the uneven level of development of consumer demand of households in regional consumer markets have been identified. The most significant of them are the following:
Significant intersectoral and territorial differentiation of wages;
The gap between high entrepreneurial income and low wages;
Low wages in sectors of the social and budgetary sphere;
Differences in families in the number of minor children, pensioners, and disabled people;
Commercialization of the service sector;
Inflationary rise in prices for goods on the consumer market.
Solving this range of problems will ensure increased efficiency of state economic policy in the field of formation and stimulation of aggregate demand of households in the consumer market, which in turn will contribute to the growth of welfare and macroeconomic stabilization of the national economy.
3. The functional relationship between the consumer behavior of individual social groups of households (low, medium and high income) with their contribution to economic development is substantiated, which makes it possible to prove the need for harmonization of interests that promotes the economic development of the regional community. This determines the need for a flexible differentiated policy that stimulates, on the one hand, the growth of consumer demand of low-income households through the proposed socialization measures retail network, and on the other, investment restructuring of the aggregate demand of households with average and high incomes.
4. An algorithm has been proposed for the development and implementation of an active regional policy that ensures the restructuring of household demand in the direction of its investment orientation, including:
Creation of an institutional and legal basis for a regional system of mortgage lending for housing construction;
Implementation of measures to increase the investment activity of households with average incomes through government support in the form of preferential mortgage housing loans (budget subsidies to repay part of the debt on mortgage loans and credits in the event of the birth of a child in a young family, preferential subsidies to increase part of housing construction savings, budget subsidies for payment of part of the cost of housing purchased with the help of a mortgage loan or credit);
Expanding the construction of municipal social housing to provide low-income citizens.
5. Included priority areas To stabilize the regional retail consumer market, which significantly influences the structure of aggregate household demand, a set of measures of an organizational and economic nature has been identified:
Creation of favorable institutional and legal conditions for the development of retail trade enterprises working directly with suppliers or with their regional wholesale representative offices;
Reducing the number of intermediary firms as a measure to streamline market prices and protect consumer rights;
Merging small wholesale markets into large shopping complexes and strengthening their material and technical base;
Streamlining trade in wholesale food markets.
These measures will create favorable conditions in the region for the formation and development of aggregate consumer demand and will increase the competitive advantages of local producers.
The theoretical significance of the study is determined by the relevance of the tasks and lies in the fact that the provisions, conclusions and proposals obtained during the dissertation research develop and complement a number of aspects of the theory of aggregate consumer demand and can serve as a theoretical basis for further research.
The theoretical conclusions of the dissertation research can be used:
In the educational process when improving curricula in economic theory, macroeconomics, theory of transition economies, regional economics;
When developing special training courses “Effective demand in a transformational economy”, “Aggregate demand of households”, “Household Economics”;
In the theoretical substantiation of federal and regional economic policies in the field of formation of effective aggregate consumer demand and its investment restructuring at the macro- and meso-levels of a transformational economy, taking into account the differentiation of regions in terms of the level of well-being of the population.
Practical significance dissertation research is that the main conclusions and recommendations can be used in developing concepts and developing federal and regional programs in the field of formation of aggregate household demand, as well as forecasting the impact of its dynamics on the development of markets for goods and services of the transformation economy. Some of the research results can be used by mortgage companies and regional authorities to stimulate the demand of middle-income households for mortgage loans for housing construction. The proposals developed to stimulate the investment restructuring of the aggregate demand of households with average incomes by the authorities of the Rostov region are universal in nature and can be used in other regions of Russia.
Approbation of work. The main theoretical results of the work were reported and discussed at scientific conferences of graduate students and young scientists of the Faculty of Economics of Rostov State University, at conferences of the research society "Rostov University Economic Initiative", as well as at other universities in Rostov.
Publications. The main provisions of the work are reflected in 7 scientific publications of the author, with a total volume of 1.9 pp.
The structure of the dissertation work reflects the logic, order of research and solution of the assigned problems. The dissertation consists of an introduction, 8 paragraphs combined into three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and 6 appendices.
Similar dissertations in the specialty "Economic Theory", 08.00.01 code VAK
Consumer demand of the population and its impact on macroeconomic reproductive processes 2003, Doctor of Economics Snimshchikova, Irina Viktorovna
Consumer behavior of households in the context of cyclical development of the economic system 2011, Candidate of Economic Sciences Sitnikova, Yulia Ivanovna
Methodology for statistical research of consumer demand in the region 2006, Doctor of Economics Antokhonova, Inna Vladimirovna
Institutional and functional transformation of the household in the Russian market economy 2008, Candidate of Economic Sciences Pravota, Yuri Sergeevich
Mortgage lending in the system of investment and financial mechanism of the housing market of the transformation economy 2005, Doctor of Economics Yakhimovich, Vladimir Ivanovich
Conclusion of the dissertation on the topic “Economic Theory”, Polyakova, Elena Yurievna
CONCLUSION
The conducted study of the aggregate demand of households as a factor in the development of the consumer market in a transformational economy, the influence of state economic policy on its formation, allowed us to obtain the following conclusions of a methodological, general theoretical and applied nature:
1. In economic theory, several theoretical concepts of aggregate consumer demand and effective state economic policy in this area have developed: classical theory, Keynesian and post-Keynesian concepts, monetarist school, etc. However, all these scientific theories and schools offer alternative options for the formation and stimulation of aggregate consumer demand for developed economies, which necessitates a theoretical basis for studying the essential characteristics of this phenomenon in a transformational economy.
2. The classical school determines the dependence of demand on price and on subjective assessments of consumers, and recognizes the automatic equalization of supply and demand as the main principle of stimulating aggregate demand. In contrast, Keynesian theory recognizes the functional connection between total personal expenditures and total income; government support becomes the principle of stimulating aggregate demand. An alternative to these theories is the institutional concept, which, recognizing the dependence of economic development on institutional factors, offers free choice of producers, transformation of property relations and attraction of investments by the principles of stimulating aggregate demand. In further development, the neoclassical doctrine brings out the dependence of aggregate demand on the degree of development of market relations, stimulating supply, carrying out “flexibility” measures, and stimulating consumption are brought to the fore. Developing in parallel with neoclassicism, neo-Keynesianism, defining the functional dependence of consumption on the level of income of the population, the principle and goal of stimulating aggregate demand determines the stabilization of income of the population. Learn to a new level
148 scientific understanding of this economic phenomenon is derived from monetarism, which, accepting the dependence of macroeconomic stabilization on the specifics of the state’s monetary policy, proposes the implementation of anti-inflationary measures and control over the money supply as the main means of stimulating aggregate demand. In the study of this issue, institutional economic theory also introduced some innovation: the main way to stimulate this parameter is the creation of soft infrastructure to rationalize the interests of economic agents.
3. Modern economic theory is evolving in the direction of shifting special scientific interest in research to personal factors, psychological components of human behavior and new forms of cooperation. Because of this, the presented economic concepts of aggregate demand in a number of situations should be considered not as alternative, but rather as complementary, although, of course, when carrying out economic policy, the simultaneous use of recommendations from various schools is not always possible. Due to the fact that, unlike the Western economy, the Russian market is at the stage of formation, the dominance of monetarist regulation of aggregate consumer demand is inadequate to the policy of economic growth, but can be effectively applied later - at the stage of stable economic development. Low incomes of the Russian population determine the small volume of aggregate demand, low rate national savings, narrow the base of sources of investment and, consequently, economic growth, as a result of which government actions to reduce taxes on personal and business income are identified as an effective tool for expanding aggregate consumer demand, included in the arsenal of economic methods of government regulation of the Keynesian concept.
4. Development government programs, aimed at activating consumer demand and improving the consumer market, should be carried out taking into account the following methodological principles:
The starting point of economic development is the needs that form consumer demand;
People's needs cannot always be explained in terms of the rationality of decisions made;
The desire to approach a higher social rank plays a greater role than one’s own tastes and preferences in the formation of needs;
The lower the income, the less role savings play in the economic model of consumer behavior; high-income people tend to save;
Most often, they want to compensate for the growth of needs with low incomes through benefits and subsidies, and not through the desire for innovation;
Rising unemployment and declining consumer demand lead to lower investment and income and cause economic downturns.
5. The effectiveness of influencing indicators of aggregate consumer demand and the proposed ways of reforming it as the dominant direction of economic policy is due to the strong influence of feedback in the economy. Changes in aggregate consumer demand in the long term have an acceleration effect on the dynamics of investment and the acceleration of economic growth, and, consequently, on the market for goods and services. This determines the feasibility and effectiveness of the initial implementation of an economic policy to improve the domestic demand of the population for the subsequent implementation of large-scale economic programs to integrate the Russian economy into the globalizing world economy, not as an energy supplier dependent on foreign investment, but on terms of cooperation and mutual benefit.
6. For countries with a developed economic structure and a high degree of social protection of its subjects at the present stage, the functional role of demand is considered in line with Friedman’s concept. Applicable to Russian economic reality, the conclusions of the concepts of constant and relative income are not confirmed statistical indicators recent years: differentiation by income level between various groups population continues to increase. For the economic state of modern Russia, the household consumption function is determined not by constant, but only by current income, therefore, based on current development trends, it is more appropriate to consider the consumer function according to the Keynesian concept of absolute income for short-term development dynamics.
7. In the current situation, we can assume two alternative options for the development of economic relations to increase aggregate demand: tightening the fiscal attack on business, increasing taxes, reducing benefits and subsidies for the development of national production; cutting budget expenses and reducing social payments, development of a subsidiary state, when the state is responsible for ensuring the minimum social services, and the rest is achieved by citizens independently in accordance with their capabilities and desires.
8. As a result of the reduction in transfer payments and social subsidies and their shift towards the most vulnerable groups of the population, a huge burden will be removed from the state. It seems advisable to legislatively establish and regulate the minimum level of wages and the distribution of selective support among the categories that really need it, and to consider these indicators from a regional-sectoral perspective, which, in turn, will lead to smoothing the polarization of incomes of the population. This prospect assumes a breakdown of established ideas and an increase in discontent among the population. A psychological peculiarity of Russian society is manifested in a reluctance to intensify its activities. Western countries managed to free themselves from the excessive function of social redistribution and support. This paradigm of the late 20th century was favored by a developed market infrastructure and high standards of living. Consequently, it is necessary to take a number of priority measures to stimulate consumer activity of the Russian population.
9. The process of reform in the field of public spending in order to achieve positive changes in the structure and volume of aggregate demand should be aimed at stimulating aggregate demand. It is necessary to take into account that the permissible influence of expanded demand in specific modern conditions has a very narrow framework. Production capacity and the skill level of the workforce cannot be changed in the short term. In practice, this trend will lead to an increase in production volumes, which in turn will cause price increases and demand inflation. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the national mentality and the psychological characteristics of society, since without adaptation to Russian specifics, copying recommendations or concepts will, at best, be ineffective if it does not slow down the development of ongoing reforms. When stimulating aggregate consumer demand, one should take into account such a limitation as government spending, since for effective restructuring of the economy and its stable development, an important factor is the payment of debts to creditors.
10. One of the most important reasons The growth of savings in a planned economy was driven by a deficit in the consumer goods market. Households were more or less forced to save because the range of products available to them did not match their incomes and individual preferences. There were only two savings options available to households: savings bank deposits or cash holding. During the transformation period, all restrictions on private consumption were lifted, but at the same time, with the growing degree of uncertainty in the economy, households realized the need to save part of their income in order to protect themselves for a rainy day, accumulate funds to purchase durable goods, and also ensure a decent existence after retirement. Thus, incentives to save have increased compared to the Soviet period.
11. The main pattern of saving behavior of the Russian population is a fairly close connection between the propensity to save and the dynamics of real income of the population, which is explained by the fact that one of the main functions of household savings is smoothing the current level of consumption. This saving function becomes most important when there is a sharp reduction in income.
12. When studying the role of monetary policy in changing the aggregate demand of the population, one should use the Japanese model as an effective option in the field of savings, the advantage of which is the accumulation of household savings under state control through the Savings Bank system, while using a low interest rate on household deposits and reducing the cost of long-term loans while simultaneously limiting the independence of the Savings Bank.
13. The banking system currently, due to its dysfunctionality, is not able to ensure stabilization of the economy, as a result of which, from our point of view, a synthesis of government intervention and a dynamic model of development of the banking system is necessary. In conditions of underdevelopment of the stock market and commercial banks, effective models for building state investment banks are carried out through a monetary financing mechanism through state development banks (this will allow increasing the volume of targeted investment at a low interest rate). Such a policy of increasing the money supply may cause a slight increase in inflation, but in order to attract additional investment in the economy with a low level of savings and underdeveloped infrastructure, this option seems to be the most appropriate from the point of view of economic efficiency and preventing the growth of social tension. The optimal option would be a combination of government actions to stimulate household activity and at the same time support them, which will increase the socio-economic efficiency of household activities.
14. During the actual crisis period of the transformation economy, for a significant part of households, as well as for firms, the main goal was survival in new socio-economic conditions, and its main tool was the use of informal shadow norms of behavior and institutions that were ineffective for society as a whole, but appropriate for a particular economic entity. In the post-crisis period, as a result of the establishment of a new institutional structure, households gradually abandon the survival strategy, focusing more on the adaptation strategy, the reason for the transition to which was the stabilizing macroeconomic situation, which also affects the development of the economy as a whole. The process of market institutionalization of households, due to the action of feedback in the economy, is dual in itself. On the one hand, the emerging institutional structure of society influences the functioning of households; on the other hand, households have a certain impact on the emerging institutional framework and, to some extent, on the selection of effective institutions.
15. High-income households that have chosen a market strategy have a significant amount of resources and seek to invest in various sectors of the economy in order to reduce the risk of financial losses. The traditional strategy of “average households” is predetermined by their greater conservatism compared to farms of the first category and assumes their activity in parallel in the domestic and residually depressed sectors, when families constantly work in state budgetary organizations, and additional funds are extracted not from the market sector, but from the household sector. The third type of household behavior strategy, proletarian, should be characterized as reactionary and extremely conservative, characteristic of categories of people with a fairly low level of their own resources, reluctance to search for new ways of development, fear of risk, lack of any kind of incentives for development and initiative, these households mainly live through government transfers. Therefore, the greatest potential for development and economic growth belongs to households with a market and traditional strategy of behavior, and the economic and social well-being of the state should be linked to their activities.
16. The current trend in Russia for the growth of gross domestic product, which sharply declined after the 1998 crisis, economic and political stabilization, low level inflation and an increase in the purchasing power of household income, in addition to such positive phenomena as a reduction in unemployment, an increase in average wages, and an improvement in the investment climate, caused a number of negative trends, in particular, a reduction in the share of net exports in GDP caused by an increase in imports, which means the replacement of domestic goods Imported production is usually more expensive. Therefore, taking into account the high reproductive potential of aggregate consumer demand as a factor in the development of the market for goods and services, measures should be taken to stimulate domestic production and a certain, cost-effective level of their protection from imported ones.
17. The negative economic impact on household demand creates a shortage of liquid funds and distrust in the national government exchange rate, which leads to the use of foreign currency as a universal means of payment and diverts demand in the direction opposite to domestic reproduction. The vector of development of monetary relations should be directed towards guaranteeing deposits and insuring attracted funds from the population and lengthening the structure of liabilities. The possibility of long-term lending will lead to the replenishment of the economy's need for monetary resources through the stock market.
18. To increase the effectiveness of the impact of consumer demand on the dynamics of the economy and enter the path of sustainable development, it is necessary first of all:
Strengthen the orientation of production towards domestic demand and reduce the share of imports in its structure;
Unlock sources of growth in domestic demand;
Change the structure of commodity production in favor of the manufacturing industry;
To ensure a balanced growth of the money supply in relation to the dynamics of production and inflation, while simultaneously changing its structure in favor of funds in the accounts of enterprises.
19. The restructuring of aggregate household demand in the post-crisis economy is carried out through the reorientation of its vector from consumer markets to investment markets for households with average incomes. Government support for mortgage lending for housing construction acts as an economic mechanism for changing household strategies. Such a restructuring of aggregate household demand in the long term will have an acceleration effect on the dynamics of investment and the acceleration of economic growth, and, consequently, on the market of goods and services.
List of references for dissertation research Candidate of Economic Sciences Polyakova, Elena Yurievna, 2004
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146. Structural dynamics of household budgets in the Rostov region in 2002-2003116
147. Indicators All households Including
148. In urban areas In rural areas2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003
149. Average Household Size, persons 117 2.92 2.91 2.89 2.88 2.99 2.98
150. Average available resources per 1 household member, per month, rub. 2164.0 2969.1 2301.7 3199.7 1878.5 2490.4
151. Expenditures on final consumption, on average per 1 household member, per month, rub. 1873.3 2521.2 2011.5 2759.2 1587.9 2027.01. Of these:
152. Cost of food 1026.9 1274.8 1036.5 1292.1 1007.2 1238.9
153. Expenses for the purchase of non-food products 546.5 776.0 614.9 903.9 404.8 511.7
154. Expenses for the purchase of alcoholic beverages 44.6 73.6 52.5 72.0 28.2 76.7
155. Expenses for services 248.8 389.2 298.0 483.5 146.6 193.6
156. Cost of benefits provided by the employer in kind 6.9 7.6 9.6 8.4 1D 6.1
157. Consumer expenses, on average per 1 household member, per month, rub. 1694.3 2244.8 1945.5 2619.7 1173.1 1466.5
158. Statistical collection. Households (cash income, expenditure and consumption). Rostov-n/D.: Rostoblkomstat, 2004. - P. 13.
160. Cash income and consumer expenses in the Southern Federal District in May 2004118
161. Region Cash income on average per capita per month Consumer spending on average per capita per month Real cash income, in % of May 2003 rubles In % of May 2003 rubles In % of May 2003
162. Southern Federal District 3445.7 121.2 2819.5 129.2 109.5
163. Republic of Adygea 2694.4 121.2 2013.9 137.6 106.1
164. Republic of Dagestan 2540.4 148.6 1837.3 145.9 135.7
165. Republic of Ingushetia 1544.3 128.2 575.7 147.4 122.4
166. Kabardino-Balkarian Republic 2549.6 125.6 1920.4 124.0 114.1
167. Republic of Kalmykia 1863.0 100.3 1116.1 133.6 90.5
168. Karachay-Cherkess Republic 2948.1 146.6 2245.6 147.1 132.8
169. Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 3287.0 114.3 2159.5 123.0 102.2
170. Chechen Republic ■
171. Krasnodar region 3549.2 118.5 3104.6 126.4 107.0
172. Stavropol Territory 3252.5 123.0 3118.7 134.5 108.7
173. Astrakhan region 4003.8 113.8 2754.5 123.2 101.9
174. Volgograd region 4141.5 115.8 3202.9 126.5 104.5
175. Rostov region 4079.7 120.1 3454.2 127.5 106.1
176. Socio-economic processes in the south of Russia in January-June 2004: Information-anal. mat. Rostov-n/D.: Rostoblkomstat, 2004. - P. 316.
177. Distribution of the population of the Rostov region by average per capita monetary income in 20031191. Thousands of people Percent
178. Total population 4396.7 100.0
179. Including with average per capita income per month, rubles Up to 1000.0 209.9 4.81000.1 -1500.0 412.4 9.41500.1 -2000.0 508.2 11.52000.1 -3000 .0 965.2 21.93000.1 -4000.0 725.1 16.54000.1 -5000.0 497.4 11.35000.1 7000.0 557.0 12.71. Over 7000.1 521.5 11.9
180. Statistical collection. Households (cash income, expenditure and consumption). Rostov-n/D.: Rostoblkomstat, 2004. - P. 4.
181. Purchasing power of cash income of the population of the Rostov region 120
182. January-October 2003 As a percentage of January-October 2002 January-October 2002 as a percentage of January-October 2001
183. Food products, kg per month
184. Beef (except boneless meat) 59 128.3 121.1
185. Frozen fish, uncut 110 110.0 122.0
186. Butter 50 111.1 121.6
187. Sunflower oil 123 128.1 89.71. Margarine 126 122.3 117.01. Milk, l 402 113.6 113.8
188. Eggs, pcs. 2331 115.3 131.0
189. Granulated sugar 209 102.5 130.8
190. Bread made from wheat flour of 1st and 2nd grades 459 114.5 134.11. Fig 255 115.4 106.81. Cereals 287 76.9 140.8
191. Premium wheat flour 464 111.0 150.91. Potatoes 312 97.2 82.3
192. Fresh cabbage 352 100.6 101.2
193. Domestic vodka, ordinary quality, l 36 116.1 119.2
194. Non-food products, pcs. per month
195. Men's jacket (made of mixed fabrics) insulated 2.9 120.8 141.2
196. Men's suit (two-piece) 1.4 116.7 133.3
197. Men's shirt made of cotton and other fabrics 12.4 109.7 127.0
198. Women's demi-season coat 1.3 130.0 125.0
199. Jumper, sweater, jacket for adults 7.6 113.4 128.8
200. Insulated jacket for children school age 6,8 121,4 133,3
201. Children's insulated boots, pairs 5.3 126.2 116.7
202. Domestic cigarettes with filter, 20 pcs. 544.4 120.2 125.4
203. Refrigerator 0.3 128.6 100.0
204. Color TV (51-54 cm) 0.7 129.1 125.0
205. Gasoline, l 371.7 105.0 123.61. Paid services, per month
206. Payment for municipal housing, 1 m2 989.5 89.3 79.6
207. Payment for electricity, 1 kWh 4106.2 89.4 108.1
208. Payment for water supply and sewerage, payments 66.4 94.2 71.4
209. Payment for hot water supply, payments 51.3 102.8 78.1
210. Heating fee, 1 sq.m. total area 636,2 107,9 75,8
211. Payment for network gas, payments 407.0 108.3 106.5
212. Socio-economic situation of the Rostov region in January-November 2003: Report. Rostov-n/D.: Rostoblkomstat, 2003. - pp. 216-217.
213. Payment for liquefied gas, cylinders with a capacity of 50 l 24.4 127.7 117.2
214. Travel on a city bus, trips 916.7 102.1 124.9
215. Subscription fee for home telephone, payments 33.6 98.5 95.8
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