According to Putin, work on the Russian section of the Europe-Western China road route is planned to be completed in 2019. Thus, a new “Silk Road” - a road one - will appear on the transport map of the world. It should become a joint transport project between Moscow and Beijing, for all participants of which this road is of strategic importance. The Chinese authorities hope to use new land transport corridors to unlock the potential of the western regions of the country, which are too far from transport hubs. east coast China. As a result, the population of these regions found themselves on the margins of the country's economic boom. Given that these territories are inhabited by Muslim minorities, economic inequality is transformed into political discontent and separatism. According to political interests investment priorities of Chinese investors are being aligned. They are ready to finance part of the costs of construction of the Moscow – Sagarchin (Kazakhstan) section. The cost of the work is tentatively estimated at 783 billion rubles, half of which the budget is ready to cover. Construction costs must be offset by tariff revenues.

Gazprom is of particular interest in this project. At the end of June, the head of the corporation, Alexey Miller, announced his readiness, together with Chinese partners, to use LNG (liquefied natural gas) as automobile fuel. This project is supposed to be implemented in the process of “gasification” of the automobile corridor.

The route “Europe - Western China” promises to become a real automobile “Silk Road 2.0” - the world’s longest economic corridor, covering countries with a total population of more than 3 billion people. Unlike the railway analogue, which is being created in parallel, the automobile version may turn out to be a more powerful integrator of economic and cultural ties between Europe and Asia due to active involvement to this network of small and medium-sized businesses. It may also be faster. It is expected that the delivery time for goods from China to the EU by road will be 10 days. This is almost two times faster than by rail and four times faster than by traditional sea route. The total length of the route will be more than 8 thousand km, of which 2.3 thousand km will pass through the territory of the Russian Federation.

The regions of Kazakhstan bordering Russia are also showing keen interest in the project. The country's authorities plan to complete the repair of their section of the Europe - Western China road by the end of this year.

The project is also being completed in China itself. Through the cities of Khorgos, Urumqi and Wuhan, the highway should reach the coast of the Yellow Sea in the city of Lianyungang.

The transport route “Europe – Western China” is a key component of the overall project of the Silk Road Economic Belt, which is promoted by Chinese President Xi Jinping and supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Its implementation will inevitably increase the status of Eurasia as a world economic center and reduce the role of the Atlantic, which could become the most important geopolitical event since the 16th century, when sea routes to America and Asia were opened.

The idea of ​​creating a new Silk Road sounded hopeful: invest trillions of dollars in infrastructure projects in the barren desert that is much of Central Asia, and trade would flourish, economies would grow, and peace would reign. However, most experts believe that problems in the real world will ensure that this idea remains a pipe dream.

This concept is called “One Belt, One Road” and was put forward by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in March 2015. It has two elements: one is the land route from China to Europe through Asia - the Silk Road Economic Belt, and the other is the sea route going from China to Europe through India and Africa, called the Maritime Silk Road.

While estimates vary, China has called for up to $5 trillion in infrastructure investment over the next five years in 65 countries along these routes. Ports in Sri Lanka, railways in Thailand and roads and power plants in Pakistan are just a few examples of planned investments.

Speaking at a forum in Beijing in May this year, Xi said: “Under the Belt and Road Initiative, we must focus on the fundamental issue of development, develop the growth potential of various countries and achieve economic integration, interconnected development and benefits for all.”

He talks about the desired results, but the details are extremely vague. The project is intended to improve intergovernmental communication, coordinate plans, develop soft infrastructure and strengthen tourism and trade, but details are being glossed over.

“There are no concrete actions in the Chinese government's plan, which has become one of Xi's most visible policy initiatives. The document contains a number of general proposals interspersed with platitudes about cooperation and mutual understanding,” the research firm Geopolitical Futures said in a July report.

But despite the lack of specific programs, the huge sums show that the Silk Road has received the support of many countries. The Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank has pledged $269 billion for the project. Even Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed support at the recent G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany.

Goals don't match reality

China's goals, explicit and implicit, must be weighed against reality. Based on this, most experts consider the project to be economically infeasible. But it will allow China to gain political influence.

Context

The Great Silk Road and Big game

EurasiaNet 07/27/2017

India is creating its own Silk Road

Forbes 07/01/2017

US attempts to interfere with the Silk Road project

Star gazete 06.06.2017

Will the Silk Road be smooth?

Latvijas Avize 05/22/2017
Economically, it mainly concerns investment and exports. “China has excess capital and excess manufacturing capacity, which is motivating this set of initiatives. Given China's high savings rate and slowing industrial investment, they are looking for overseas projects to finance and new exit for Chinese exports,” says James Nolt, a professor of international relations at New York University.

The result is this project, which will see China team up with countries along the routes to raise money to build the infrastructure needed to facilitate trade. And everything will be built by Chinese companies.

Holding company China Overseas Ports has expanded the Gwadar port in Pakistan and leased it until 2059. This is just the first small step to connect the Silk Road Economic Belt with the Maritime Silk Road. Planned for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor highways, pipelines, power plants, optical connections and railways with a total investment of $62 billion.

Of course, local and international companies are going to bid on these projects, but if China provides most of the funds, then Chinese state-owned enterprises will get most of the contracts.

Unable to finance

Then the question arises of financing these investments. The countries where the investment will take place, such as Pakistan and Cambodia, are not rich enough to spend trillions. This forces China to come up with a way to obtain hard currency financing to achieve its economic goals.

When the project was launched, China had almost $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and it wanted to invest them. Reserves fell to $3 trillion in 2017, a threshold that central planners in Beijing have signaled they will not cross.

“They have to tap international bond markets or deplete their foreign exchange reserves and then borrow. Even by global bond market standards, a $5 trillion bond program over several years is a huge undertaking. They're not going to take on that kind of repayment risk and they're not going to deplete their reserves,” Balding said.

A study by investment bank Natixis found that such borrowing would increase China's external debt from 12% to 50% of GDP. This would expose the country to exchange rate risks and put it in the same vulnerable position as the Four Asian Tigers ( South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan) during the 1998 financial crisis.

Loans from China in RMB are not a good option for two reasons. This “creates risks for Chinese banks' overextended balance sheets. In fact, their bad loans have only increased over the past few years, making it difficult to continue lending,” especially for risky projects, Natixis chief Asia-Pacific economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero wrote in a blog post.

In addition, recipient countries could only repay the loan in yuan by selling goods and services to China, thereby purchasing Chinese currency. This was counterproductive to facilitating Chinese exports and ultimately to trade infrastructure.

“How will Pakistan repay the yuan loan? They are going to create a trade surplus in yuan. Thus, China has to face trade deficits in all the countries to which it lends. Pakistan will have to generate some trade surplus with another country to have enough capital to pay China,” Balding said.

Given that much of the infrastructure will be built to facilitate trade with China, this is unlikely. So, in the end, China will finance the supplier for these projects. The only way for China to achieve its economic goals is through hard currency loans that are fully repaid and will generate a profit, but China currently does not have the means to do this.

Bad risks

All economic indicators of the most famous Silk Road projects point to this repayment scenario.

There are reasons why countries like Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Pakistan and Mongolia do not have good infrastructure. They have generally poor macroeconomic frameworks, underdeveloped institutions, and high levels of corruption. Construction of roads and railways won't change that.

Moreover, “Central Asia, a patchwork of states whose borders were drawn to make them easier to rule by Moscow during the Soviet era, is unlikely to be a promising market for Chinese goods,” the Geopolitical Futures report says.

“People say China is giving away money. In almost every case, a Chinese lending company provides a loan to an oppressive dictator, such as in Sri Lanka or Venezuela. None of this ended well,” Balding said.

Economically stable countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam require less investment than troubled states such as the Kyrgyz Republic and Ukraine, which is torn by civil war. These countries have economic stability ratings of 44 and 38.2 respectively, compared with Malaysia's 66.8, according to Oxford Economics.

“Where countries' financial development is relatively weak and governments are highly indebted, financing will have crucial", says the Oxford Economics report. These are the countries that have the lowest chance of repayment.

"While new airport or railway can be built in just a few years, accumulating the human and institutional capital necessary for their efficient work and promoting economic and social progress, it is a slower process,” says the report from research firm TS Lombard.

Small coverage

Given the limitations in viable economic projects and financing, the scale of the Belt and Road project is likely to be small, while China can still focus on its political goals to exert greater influence over participating countries.

“What remains is a much more modest program of $15 to $30 billion a year,” Bolding said. “This is comparable to the $269 billion already promised by Chinese banks. I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but it doesn't of great importance. The United States spends $300 billion annually on foreign direct investment."

One initiative that makes sense but needs little infrastructure and investment is protecting ships from pirates. "Collaboration with Singapore to secure maritime routes is promising and should be pursued anyway," Nolt said.

Advances in shipping technology have made it much easier and cheaper to transport goods by ship rather than by land. This is why the majority of Chinese and world trade (80%) is carried out by sea.

After all, protection from pirates and the construction of several ports in Pakistan and East Africa is a worthwhile task, but a far cry from building landlocked infrastructure worth trillions.

“The Silk Road was an ever-evolving market that moved goods across a vast continent where they could be exchanged for other goods. And unlike today“Eurasia was the center of world civilization, home to the most important economies,” says the Geopolitical Futures report.

Today the most important economy, and for China too, is the United States, and it is best reached by sea through Pacific Ocean, which is far from the Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Chinese infrastructure projects in Asia

The Chinese company China Overseas Ports Holding will lease the port of Gwadar in Pakistan until 2059 and has already begun to expand it. China seeks to secure maritime trade routes along the so-called Maritime Silk Road, and the Pakistani port is an important element of infrastructure.

Thailand will borrow a total of $69.5 billion to finance high-speed rail and other major megatransport projects, with most of the money coming from China and Chinese companies providing construction. Thailand Railways will become part of the Kunming-Singapore railway system. However, Thailand will repay the loans by exporting rice and rubber, thus taking advantage of its trade surplus with China.

The $3.6 billion Myitsone Dam project in Burma, although not officially part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is an example of a Chinese infrastructure project in a very poor country that did not go as planned. Construction was suspended for six years because the two countries could not agree on how to proceed.

InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively from foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.

BEIJING, May 13 - RIA Novosti, Zhanna Manukyan. More than three years have passed since Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at Nazarbayev University in Astana, first mentioned the idea of ​​​​creating the Silk Road Economic Belt. During this time, the concept, which is now called “one belt - one road”, became known and talked about in many countries. Moreover, in the coming two days, leaders of about 30 countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as more than a thousand experts, representatives international organizations, will gather in Beijing for a special international forum to discuss ways to implement this idea.

The attitude towards the Chinese concept of building the Silk Road Economic Belt, which still remains quite vague, is ambiguous in the world. China is positioning it as a chance to advance global economic cooperation that will benefit all countries involved. Skeptics see hegemonic plans and a desire to increase their influence in the Chinese initiative, comparing it with the Marshall Plan.

The beginning of the journey

In September 2013, when Xi Jinping in his speech, recalling the history of the ancient Silk Road, also spoke about the need to improve cross-border transport infrastructure, about China's readiness to participate in the creation of transport networks connecting East, West and South Asia, which would create favorable conditions For economic development region. The President of the People's Republic of China also spoke about the advisability of simplifying trade and investment rules to eliminate trade barriers, improve speed and quality economic transactions in the region.

In general, the idea of ​​the “one belt and road” is to create infrastructure and establish relationships between the countries of Eurasia. It includes two key areas of development: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. We are talking about creating a trade corridor for direct supplies of goods from east to west on preferential terms. This economic corridor should connect the Asia-Pacific region in the east with developed European countries in the west. The countries involved have a population of over 3 billion and a total GDP of approximately $21 trillion.

The initiative involves the creation of six component economic corridors: Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Eurasian Land Bridge. This goal is expected to be achieved through the construction of roads, ports, bridges and other infrastructure facilities, as well as the conclusion of agreements on free trade zones.

In 2014, China announced that it would allocate $40 billion to create the Silk Road Fund, which would finance Belt and Road projects. In addition, in January 2016, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, initiated by China, began operating in Beijing.

According to Chinese media reports and estimates, since 2013, more than 100 countries and international organizations have responded positively to the initiative. Within its framework, about 50 intergovernmental cooperation agreements were signed. Chinese companies have invested about 50 billion and built 56 trade and economic cooperation zones in 20 Belt and Road countries, creating a total of 180 thousand jobs for residents of these countries.

Deputy Head state committee On the eve of the forum, Ning Jizhe said that China's total overseas investment in the next five years will be about $600-800 billion. At the same time, the bulk of the investment will go to countries along the Belt and Road.

"For" and "against"

Despite China's seemingly noble goals, some experts call China's Belt and Road Initiative a "modern version of America's Marshall Plan" aimed at spreading its influence and establishing hegemony.

The main publication of the Communist Party of China, the People's Daily, in a published commentary in response to this, stated that "Western commentators are prejudiced cold war look at the initiative.

“Focused on responsibility, win-win cooperation and sincere pursuit of common development, the Belt and Road Initiative has provided the world with China's answer to today's challenges—a balanced, fair and comprehensive development model...Openness, inclusiveness and mutual benefit are the features of the Belt and Road Initiative “Thanks to which she won the support of the international community,” the publication writes.

Many European countries have openly expressed support for the Belt and Road Initiative, including European diplomacy chief Federica Mogherini and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The UK became the first developed Western economy to express a desire to join the AIIB.

Leaders of several EU countries have confirmed their participation in the upcoming forum. However, as the South China Morning Post writes, citing European diplomats in Beijing, they have little idea what China’s idea means, and agreed to take part in order not to spoil relations and to get more information about the project. "It's been three years since Xi Jinping announced the initiative, but we are still trying to understand what it means and what should we do about it?" — the publication quotes a European diplomat who wished to remain anonymous.

European diplomats, as the publication writes, argue that the leaders of their countries do not have high expectations regarding the outcome of the upcoming summit. They just want to know more about this initiative.

The United States and its main ally in Asia, Japan, remain aloof from the Chinese project. Neither the US nor Japan have joined the AIIB and the leaders of these countries will also not attend the upcoming forum. Only on Friday it became known that the United States had finally decided to send a representative and it would be the National Security Council employee responsible for the Asian direction, Matthew Pottinger.

An expert at the Valdai international discussion club, director of the Institute of History, Archeology and Ethnography of the Peoples of the Far East of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Viktor Larin, believes that the “one belt, one road” project still has more geopolitics than economics.

“I believe that the One Belt, One Road project is, first of all, geopolitical, and only then economic. Secondly, as an economic project, it is aimed primarily at development western regions China. Thirdly, it is too early to expect concrete results, because very little time has passed. The fourth thesis: the project itself, if we take into account Chinese foreign policy concepts, is a continuation of the same policy: the policy of openness of Deng Xiaoping, the policy of Jiang Zemin under the motto “go outward.” As China grows, it needs more and more markets, more and more raw materials. This is the same idea, which today has received a new, rather successful form - “one belt - one road,” Larin told RIA Novosti.

According to the expert, “the Chinese project has more geopolitics than economics, because the main idea of ​​China’s geopolitical doctrines is a peaceful environment, and a peaceful environment can be created primarily by economic methods - China is 100% sure of this.” According to Larin, Russia is also interested in this. This is the point of contact. When specific interests appear, they sometimes do not coincide and diverge greatly. However, they are agreed upon during the negotiation process.

Alexander Gabuev, head of the “Russia in the Asia-Pacific” program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, in turn notes that China is not imposing its project on neighboring countries. “It is based on the fact that China has great economic power, huge capital reserves, vast experience in infrastructure construction, big markets etc. And he is ready to provide this to the outside world in order to develop together,” Gabuev said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

When asked whether fears that only China would benefit from the Silk Road project were justified, he opined that this would “depend on the skill of the negotiators and how they know how to defend their economic interests.”

Russia on the Silk Road

In May 2015, the leaders of Russia and China adopted a joint statement on the combination of two concepts - the concept of building the Silk Road economic belt and the concept of developing the Eurasian Economic Union.

Gabuev notes that the Russian side’s expectations from the implementation of the Chinese Silk Road project have not yet been met. “Russia hasn’t seen much in the Belt and Road so far, since all expectations that a lot of cheap money or politically motivated money will come have not come true,” the RIA Novosti expert said.

According to Gabuev, “the only place where large investments came into Russia was the investment in Yamal LNG and Sibur through the Silk Road Fund, but rather China used the fund as a financial wallet, not connected with the global financial system and immune from American sanctions.” . He noted that negotiations are also underway to conclude an agreement to reduce non-tariff barriers between the Eurasian Union and China, but “they (negotiations) will take several years.”

As Larin, in turn, notes, Russia and China have a common idea - cooperation within a single large Eurasia, but specific projects are “difficult.” “It’s harder with specific projects. There are regular, incessant attempts to find one, two, five, twentieth points of contact and through specific projects to move towards a greater goal,” he added.

Executive Secretary of the Business Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Sergei Kanavsky believes that the project to build a new Silk Road opens up great potential for Russia in the future.

“The potential is huge, the potential is great, interesting. It’s all a question of initiative, of elaboration, of defense own interests, in finding common ground for synergy, and not for disunity,” he said in an interview with RIA Novosti. At the same time, he recalled that the project is in the development stage, determining the main development paths.

In general, Kanavsky noted that the SCO Business Council considers the initiative to create the Silk Road Economic Belt as part of the general trends in Euro-Asian economic cooperation.

China has long laid claim to a much more significant role than the one it currently plays in world politics and economics. Although even now the Chinese economy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly developing, China accounts for about 15% of world GDP (this is third place after the European Union and the United States), Beijing is seeking to strengthen the country’s position even more. One of the ways to strengthen China’s position is to implement the “One Belt, One Road” concept or simply the “New Silk Road” concept.

Xi Jinping announced the concept of “One Belt, One Road” back in 2013. It is already clear that this concept has become the basis guiding foreign policy China for the coming decades. By 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China, the country should firmly establish its position as a world leader. This goal is set by the leadership of the CCP and, apparently, it can really be achieved. As part of achieving this goal, China is building relations with Eurasian states based on the concept of “One Belt, One Road.” First of all, China is interested in developing relations with the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe.

In fact, the idea of ​​uniting economically less developed states around China arose a long time ago, during the reign of Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao divided the then world into the “first world” (capitalist countries of Europe, the USA), the “second world” (socialist camp) and the “third world” - developing countries. China, according to Mao’s concept, was supposed to lead the movement of “third world” countries opposing the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union. Now Soviet Union no longer exists, and Russia is not a competitor to China. Beijing’s main task is to “overtake” the United States, and to achieve this task, the PRC is striving to establish relations with as many countries as possible. a large number states of the world. Eurasian countries are of interest to China, first of all, for reasons of providing economic corridors to Europe. In the future, it is with Europe that China will develop relations, competing with the United States for the European market. But this will require economic corridors through which Chinese goods will be sent to EU countries. For the construction of such corridors, a return to the concept of the Silk Road is envisaged - from China through Central Asia and the Caucasus - to Eastern Europe and further to Western Europe.

The very idea of ​​the New Silk Road is a desire to reconstruct the Great Silk Road, which existed since the 2nd century. BC e. The most important trade route of antiquity and the Middle Ages, the Great Silk Road passed through many countries in Asia and Eastern Europe. However, at that time the Silk Road was only a trade transit route from China to Europe, and the New Silk Road is seen as a tool for strengthening China’s influence on other states. With the help of the New Silk Road, Beijing seeks to modernize the entire economic and trading system Eurasia. Naturally, first of all, this transformation will affect the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Chinese diplomats and businessmen are already actively working here, and ties between Beijing and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are growing stronger.

China has begun organizing a worldwide system of transport corridors, which, according to the Chinese, should connect China with the whole world - countries Central Asia, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Oceania. As part of the New Silk Road, it is planned to build roads and railways, open sea and airways, laying pipelines, power lines. China plans to bring 4.4 billion people into its orbit of influence through the New Silk Road - more than half of the current population of the Earth.

China includes the following in the development of land routes of the New Silk Road: 1) construction of railways to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The idea of ​​​​building a powerful railway line includes creating a tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait and organizing ferries across the Caspian Sea. The northern corridor to Europe will go through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russia, the central corridor - through Central Asia and the Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia, and the southern corridor has a different direction - through Indochina and Indonesia to the Indian Ocean and further - to the countries of the African continent, which China has already spread its political and economic influence. These routes should connect all of Asia, but main task What remains is ensuring uninterrupted communication between China and other countries on the continent.

How the New Silk Road project influences world politics is best demonstrated by the current situation in the Middle East. Initially, China planned to organize an economic corridor through Iran and further through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. That is, Syria was seen as a very important link in the Silk Road system. However, this path bypassed Turkey, an important player in Middle Eastern politics. Ankara has long been making plans for Turkey's role in economic exchanges between China and Europe, but the construction of an economic corridor through Syria would leave Turkey on the periphery of the New Silk Road. China was not interested in organizing communication through Turkey also because Turkey has always played key role in support of Uyghur separatists operating in Western China (the historical region of East Turkestan, now the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China). In addition, the construction of a corridor through Syria seemed more profitable to the Chinese leadership in economic terms.

In order for plans to organize a Syrian corridor not to be realized, it was necessary to destabilize the political situation in Syria to such a state that any transit through the territory of this country would not be possible. The war in Syria has become an excellent way to block the One Belt, One Road project in the Mediterranean direction. Since the “revolutions” in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula - the so-called. " Arab Spring“Almost seven years have passed, but the situation in Syria has not stabilized. The war has become protracted, and the actions of armed groups make any attempts to build land routes through this country impossible. We can say that China’s opponents have achieved their goal – building a corridor through Syria is now impossible.

What path remains for China? The Syrian corridor is being replaced by a corridor from Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and further to Georgia, Batumi, and then to the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. China is showing great interest in developing economic relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, which indicates Beijing's far-reaching plans for these Transcaucasian republics. In turn, both Azerbaijan and Georgia are also interested in allowing the Chinese corridor through their territories, since this will allow them to significantly improve their economic situation, including through the construction of infrastructure and attracting investment.

At the beginning of 2018, a free trade agreement between Tbilisi and Beijing comes into force. Georgia has a similar agreement with the European Union. At the same time, Tbilisi, despite long-standing contradictions in relations with Moscow, seeks to receive dividends from cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, in partnership with which the “One Belt - One Road” project is involved.

A number of Eastern European countries are also interested in developing relations with China. Gradually, Eastern European politicians are beginning to understand that in the European Union they will in any case be destined for a secondary place. The positions of the countries of Eastern Europe are not taken into account by European “heavyweights” when discussing even the most important issues, for example, the placement of migrants. In fact, Eastern European countries Balkan Peninsula are considered by the European Union as resource territories from which cheap labor can be obtained. In addition, the entry of these countries into the European Union and NATO has always been seen as preventing the spread of Russian influence on them. USA and Western Europe in 1989-1990 They didn’t win a major victory over the USSR, pushing Moscow out of Eastern Europe, only to then give up their positions.

Hungary plays a very active role in the development of relations between China and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Budapest is a modern “dissident” of the European Union. We know that on a number of fundamental issues Hungary takes a different position from the European Union. This applies to migration policy, attitudes towards same-sex marriage, and sanctions against Russia. It is not surprising that Budapest is seeking to develop an increasingly active relationship with China. Recently, the 16+1 summit was held in Budapest - the sixth in a row. Representatives of China traditionally took part in the summit. What is “16+1” - these are sixteen countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Plus one is plus China. Many summit participants are members of the European Union and NATO, but they do not hide their desire to cooperate with China. For Beijing this is another diplomatic victory, but for Brussels it is a cause for concern.

The growing influence of China on the countries of Eastern and Central Europe cannot but worry the leadership of the European Union. During the Cold War, China had virtually no influence over the countries of Eastern Europe under Soviet patronage. For some time, Beijing cooperated only with Albania, Romania and Yugoslavia. In the 1990s, Eastern Europe came under the political and economic influence of the United States and the European Union. However, now the situation is changing dramatically.

Beijing is attracting Eastern European countries with promises of multibillion-dollar investments in the development of national economies. First of all, we're talking about on investments in the development of transport infrastructure and energy modernization. Investments are not only money and new opportunities, they also mean new jobs, and the problem of unemployment in most countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula is very acute. Therefore, regional leaders are very favorable towards the Chinese project.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even noted that China can provide the countries of Eastern and Central Europe with opportunities that cannot be realized relying only on the resources of the European Union. And this is true. The key players of the European Union - France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands - are no longer able to finance solutions to numerous problems in the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, they are not seriously concerned about solving these problems, which was clearly demonstrated with the placement of migrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which became the cause of serious contradictions between the leadership of the European Union and the countries of Eastern Europe. China is already investing billions of dollars in Eastern European countries, and the amount of investment will only grow.

Naturally, Brussels is not very happy with this behavior of the Eastern European states. But what can be done? The world is changing, and China plays a very important role in these changes. big role. More and more countries are beginning to understand that focusing on China in the current global political and economic situation is much more profitable than remaining eternal satellites of the United States and the European Union. Even more frightening for the leaders of the European Union is the fact that Western European countries (here we are talking about the political and cultural concept of “Western Europe”) are increasingly interested in developing relations with China. For example, Austria advocates that the Chinese “New Silk Road” must pass through its territory, fully understanding all the benefits and positive consequences of this step.

We see that China is methodically and successfully moving towards achieving its goal - expanding its economic and then political influence to countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. The New Silk Road is just one way to expand this influence. But what can the United States do in an attempt to prevent Chinese “dominance” from asserting itself?

The countries of Central Asia are related not only by their common Soviet past. The economic situation everywhere leaves much to be desired, the level of corruption and freedom of speech ratings in all countries are approximately the same, and even population growth is similar. Although, of course, there are differences.

Uzbekistan: Agriculture is retreating

In Uzbekistan, since the collapse of the USSR, the structure of the economy has changed dramatically: previously the share of agriculture exceeded a third, but now it is not even one fifth. Over the past five years, unemployment has increased significantly in the country. The minimum salary is 36 euros, pension is 71 euros. Previously, it was Uzbekistan that “supplied” the majority of migrant workers to the Russian Federation.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Uzbekistan: Political emigrants

During the reign of Islam Karimov, who harshly suppressed any form of dissent, Uzbekistan accounted for the largest share of political refugees from the region, primarily to Western countries. Many residents of the republic were forced to flee to escape repression after the Uzbek authorities suppressed the uprising in Andijan.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Uzbekistan: Change of President

Since 1991, there have been only two leaders in Uzbekistan. Islam Karimov ruled from 1991 until his death in 2016 (he was 78 years old). After him, Shavkat Mirziyoyev became president. Now he is 59 years old - and it is difficult to guess how long he will “stay” in power. Formally, four parties are represented in parliament plus the environmentalist movement, but independent media call the elections a “political show.”

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Guest workers leave the Russian Federation

Officially, unemployment in Tajikistan is very low - about 2.5%. However, experts are convinced that this figure is underestimated by at least four times. According to fergananews.com, the average pension in Tajikistan in 2015 was much lower than in other countries - about 30 euros per month. The number of labor migrants from this country in Russia is decreasing: now less than 700 thousand Tajiks live in the Russian Federation.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Islamic factor

Many foreign IS fighters are recruited in Tajikistan, and then, through other countries, they are transported to combat areas. Western experts believe that from the point of view of Islamism, Tajikistan is the most vulnerable country in the region. The Tajik authorities use this factor to suppress any dissent.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: 201st military base

The 201st military base of the Russian Federation is located on Tajik territory. In the 90s, the Russian military participated in a peacekeeping mission that stopped the civil war in Tajikistan. Now the base exists to serve as a kind of “shield” for the dangers emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. Many Tajiks work at the base as civilian employees, receiving high salaries.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Persecution of opposition

The head of Tajikistan is Emomali Rahmon. And although he has been in power for 22 years, he is not the first or only president of the country - before him, Tajikistan was led by Kahar Makhkamov and Rakhmon Nabiyev (each for less than a year). There are 4 parties represented in the current composition of the Tajik parliament, but there is no real opposition in the country. HRW said Tajik authorities are arresting and torturing opposition members.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Turkmenistan: Without freedom, but with resources

Turkmenistan has a relatively high average salary - about 290 euros per month (data from asgabad.net). And although more than half the population is employed in agriculture, the Turkmen economy is still extremely dependent on energy exports. The population still does not pay for gas, water and electricity. But in the press freedom ranking, Turkmenistan is in “honorable” third place... from the bottom - 178th.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Turkmenistan: Life after Turkmenbashi

Songs and legends are written about the two local presidents. Saparmurat Niyazov, the famous "Turkmenbashi" - the father of all Turkmen - has ruled (in various positions) since 1985. In 2006, he died, and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov took over the baton. He is only 59 years old, and he has already won presidential elections three times. It is impossible to talk about any opposition in Turkmenistan, one of the most dictatorial countries in the region.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Oil Dependence

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest in the region and the second in the post-Soviet space. However, her well-being depends closely on prices for natural resources, including oil. For recent years The tenge exchange rate has dropped repeatedly. The average salary in the country is about 410 euros (according to forbes.kz).

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Astana - business card

Kazakhstan strives to be as close as possible to European culture. Capital Astana - business card countries. The main administrative institutions of the country and the offices of large companies are located here.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Under the leadership of a centenarian

Kazakhstan is ruled by the main post-Soviet centenarian - Nursultan Nazarbayev (official title - "Elbasy", leader of the nation). He has been in power since 1989. He won the next election, in 2015, with almost 98% of the vote. There is an opposition in Kazakhstan, but it is under severe pressure from the authorities.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Issyk-Kul and freedom of speech

Not long ago, Kyrgyzstan’s external debt increased sharply, which complicates the country’s economic situation. But this is where the famous Issyk-Kul is located - and tourism brings a lot of money to the treasury. And press freedom is not bad here: in the Reporters Without Borders ranking, Kyrgyzstan is in 89th place - above all its neighbors, the Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine!

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Bases in Manas and Kant

Kyrgyzstan made money by granting the right to place foreign military bases on its territory. Thus, at the Manas airport near Bishkek until 2014 there was a US military base - among other things, American planes flying to Afghanistan refueled here. And a Russian military base is still located in Kant.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Already four presidents

Compared to other countries in the region, relative democracy reigns in Kyrgyzstan - it has already had its fourth president (including one interim) since 1990, and the first two - Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev - were overthrown as a result of revolutions. Many people remember the tragic events of 2010, when more than 200 people died in the south of the country. The next presidential elections will be held in November 2017.