Sinusitis

State budget of the year of the Russian Federation. Analysis of income and expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation

Maternity capital is one of the effective mechanisms for influencing demographic processes, which was introduced to increase the birth rate and encourage families to have more than one child. The process was launched in 2006, and during this period the amount of financial support increased 1.8 times: from an amount of 250 thousand rubles to 453 thousand.

The issue of maternity capital for families who plan to give birth to a child in 2019 remains relevant, since the allocated funds are an excellent help in important issues related to the material costs of children.

Maternity capital in 2019: changes, latest news for 2 children. Who can count on maternity capital

Under the program, payments are made to families who have a second or more child. For those families who will have their first child in 2019, they will not receive financial assistance.

There are no restrictions on the number of times maternity capital can be received, that is, if a woman has received such assistance many times already, this cannot become a basis for refusal.

A special situation arises for those who become parents of twins, triplets, and so on. Despite the number of offspring already existing in the family and regardless of the number of children born at one time, multiple births give the right to receive only one amount of maternity capital.

The category of citizens applying for maternity capital also includes those who have officially adopted children. But an adopted child, just as in the case of relatives, must be at least the second in the family.

Maternity capital in 2019: changes, latest news for 2 children. Program action in 2019

Despite the fact that the program was launched in 2006 for a period of 10 years, its duration was extended by a special federal law until December 31, 2018.

There is no official decision regarding maternal capital after the end of this period and the onset of 2019. But the government of the country assesses the results of the program extremely positively, declaring its positive impact on the demographic situation in the country and noting the increase in the birth rate associated with the program in most regions of Russia. Therefore, the overwhelming number of experts in this field say that there is a great chance of another extension of such funding for parents who decide to increase the number of younger family members.

Maternity capital in 2019: changes, latest news for 2 children. Options for changes

Economists and key social policy officials identify three possible directions for changes in maternity capital payments in 2019:

Extension of the program in the same form, as before. It is not known for what period it can be extended, but the most likely period is 5 or 10 years. To do this, it will be necessary to adopt certain amendments to the existing law. The head of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population officially expressed his point of view regarding the need for such an extension at least until 2021. This is due to the fact that the number of women capable of bearing and giving birth to a child has been steadily decreasing in recent years, so the need for large families is becoming increasingly acute.
Program change which can have several directions. One of the options being considered is to provide maternity capital exclusively to those families that are recognized as needy. In this case, a lengthy and detailed development of a mechanism for identifying such families will be necessary. Opponents of this development of events argue that this approach initiates an increase in the birth rate in the lowest strata of society, which could negatively affect the future fate of the nation. Such statements are justified by statistics and history, so this option is considered very unlikely. Some analysts propose extending the maternity capital program only in certain regions or areas where the fertility crisis is especially pronounced.

Complete cancellation of payments. Such a decision is supported by statements from competent persons from the Pension Fund, as well as from a number of reputable financial experts. Their point of view is based on the state of the budgetary sector, which could save a huge amount (about 350 billion rubles) if widespread payments of maternity capital were stopped.

At the moment, a draft law is under consideration to extend payments for a period of 5 years without changes. The project is supported by the social government block, so there are all the prerequisites for its approval.

If financial assistance for the birth of a second or older child remains in the same form as provided in 2018, the exact amount of maternity capital in 2019 will be equal to 453,026 rubles, which are not subject to indexation until at least 2020. This amount is not subject to tax or other penalties.

Maternity capital in 2019: changes, latest news for 2 children. For what purposes can the funds be spent?

Initially, financial assistance was provided for the following target areas:

education and payment for services related to education provided to children;
adaptation of disabled children in society;
retirement savings account for mother;
measures to improve housing conditions (obtaining new housing by purchase or on credit, reconstruction of existing housing).

New directions for spending the amount are also being considered. If they are adopted, then by 2019 maternity capital can be spent in the following way:

a one-time payment in a fixed amount without specifying a specific purpose;
monthly payments to low-income families from maternity capital, which will be spent on household needs (food, utility bills, etc.);
purchasing a plot of land or a car;
home renovation.

Subject to the extension of the program, the amount allocated by the state in the form of maternity capital will help many families facilitate the process of financial support and education for children, which will help improve the health, culture and education of the Russian population in general.

Source of material Maternity capital in 2019: changes, latest news for 2 children

Maternity capital is a one-time measure of state support for families, which is provided in the form of a personal certificate at the birth or adoption of a second child from January 1, 2007. In 2019 its amount is 453026 rubles. has not changed since 2015, when the decision was made to suspend (first for one year and then until 2020). Next time the amount of capital will increase January 1, 2020- up to 470241 rubles.

Since 2018, no new targeted maternal (family) capital (MSC) has been added. Parents will be able to use the certificate funds for:

acquisition or , as well as ;
(regardless of the order of birth or adoption);
increase ;
payment .

However, in 2019, something happened in the maternity capital program. Certificate funds can now be legally directed to construction of a "dacha"(dacha plots have been renamed into garden plots of land - SZU).

In addition, on October 30, 2018, Vladimir Putin signed a law reducing the period for consideration of an application for a certificate from 1 month to 15 days. Now citizens can start using capital earlier.

When will the next indexing be?

Next time maternity capital will be indexed January 1, 2020. The size of the certificate will increase from 450 thousand up to 470 thousand rubles.

The last time indexation was carried out was in 2015, then the amount of maternity capital increased by 5.5%. Initially, it was planned that the freeze would last 1 year, then in December 2016, Vladimir Putin signed a law suspending the revision of the MSC size from January 1, 2016 until January 1, 2020. The reason for this decision was the unstable financial and economic situation in the country.

From the beginning of the program (since 2007) and until 2015, indexation of maternity capital was carried out every year, during which time the amount of the certificate increased almost 2 times - from 250,000 to 453,026 rubles. The biggest increase was in 2009, then the value of maternity capital increased by 13%, and the most insignificant in 2014- total by 5%.

After the resumption of regular indexation, the size of family capital will not grow at such an intensive pace as before 2015. The fact is that the increase takes into account the projected level of inflation, and according to the Ministry of Labor, it will increase in 2020 and 2021 by 3.8 and 4 percent respectively.

With indexation, not only the volume of newly issued certificates increases, but also the unspent balance of funds on previously issued certificates.

The amount of maternity capital in 2019 for the second child

In 2019, maternity capital is 453026 rubles. After the return of regular indexation, maternity capital will increase first up to 470241 rubles- in 2020 and then up to 489051 rubles- in 2021. These data follow from the explanatory note to the draft federal law on the budget of the Pension Fund for 2019 and the planning period 2020-2021.

The resumption of indexation from 2020 was confirmed by Tatyana Golikova, speaking on July 24, 2018 at a meeting of the tripartite commission on social issues, but specific figures on the size of the certificate were not announced (they are now preliminary and may change in 2019). The Deputy Prime Minister noted that the annual indexation of the MSK is an integral part of the Demography project.

The program will last at least; the corresponding law was signed by V. Putin in December 2017. However, it is highly likely that it will be extended beyond 2021, as it is a significant motivating factor for families to have children.

Where can you spend maternity capital in 2019?

Family capital funds can be used in 2019 in the following targeted areas:

Improving living conditions(for your own money, including maternal capital funds, or with the use of credit funds):
- buying a home;
- construction or reconstruction of housing.
Children's education in licensed organizations in the Russian Federation:
- paid educational services for educational programs (accreditation is no longer required);
- child's preschool education;
- payment for housing and utilities when living in a dormitory while studying.
Formation mother's pension savings.
Social adaptation of disabled children(purchase of funds and payment for services).
Monthly payments for families in need, where a second child has appeared since January 1, 2018.

As can be seen from the list above, no new ways to spend MSC were added in 2019; they remained the same as in 2018.

According to Art. 7 of Law No. 256-FZ, you can dispose of the funds of a personal certificate in 3 years after the birth or adoption of a second (subsequent) child. However, to use MSCs for some purposes wait 3 years no need, among them:

Buying or building housing with the execution of a loan agreement(loan agreement). Funds can be used to pay the down payment, as well as repay the principal debt or interest on the loan.
Preschool children education. Since 2018, it has become possible to pay with capital funds for the maintenance of a child in a kindergarten, nursery, as well as other types of child care and supervision services immediately after the right to MSC arises.
Payments for the 2nd child. Families in need (average monthly per capita income does not exceed the subsistence level for the working population), in which a second child was born or adopted since 01/01/2018, have the right to receive a monthly benefit from maternity capital funds.
Social adaptation and integration of disabled children into society. Matkapital can be used to receive compensation for already purchased goods prescribed in the individual program of rehabilitation and adaptation (IPRA) of the child. The list of funds and services on which MSC funds are allowed to be spent was established by Government Order No. 831-r dated April 30, 2016.

Changes and latest news

Although the amount of maternity capital did not increase, and no new areas for using its funds were added, in 2019 there were still some changes in the program changes:

In 2019, Russians had the opportunity to build residential buildings in summer cottages and register there for permanent residence. The very concept of “dacha” will be abolished, and dacha plots will become garden plots of land (GPL). The corresponding law No. 217-FZ dated July 29, 2017 came into force January 1, 2019.

On October 30, Vladimir Putin signed Law No. 390-FZ amending Art. 5 of the law on maternity capital. According to its provisions, the Pension Fund’s decision to issue a certificate has been reduced from 1 month up to 15 days.

The lack of tangible changes in maternity capital in 2019 is partly due to the large number innovations in 2018:

introduction monthly allowance in the amount of the subsistence minimum for children (the amount depends on the specific region) for the second child who appeared in the family from January 1, 2018;
now children’s preschool education can be paid for using family capital, without waiting three years from the moment the right to maternal capital arises;
the federal program was extended at least until the end of 2021.

In modern economic conditions, not all Russians decide to have a second or third child. It is not difficult to explain this - even a child who is desired and loved brings not only immeasurable happiness to the family, but also numerous troubles. Responsible parents want to provide him with a prosperous childhood with the best toys, a stroller, clothes and food, a joyful adolescence with creative clubs and a good school, a carefree youth with an education at a prestigious university...

Alas, not all Russian citizens can afford such financial expenses. Of course, one can hope for help from the state - the family in which the child appeared has the right to additional benefits and funding from the budget. Moreover, starting from the birth, mothers and fathers are also entitled to additional incentive payments. And the main such payment for a long time was maternity capital.

Maternity capital is the most solid one in the Russian Federation

This is a significant amount, the receipt of which can improve the living conditions of the family, give the child a good education, or provide the mother with a decent pension in the future. However, every year in carrying out this program risks becoming the last - the budget situation is becoming more and more critical, and the country’s financial reserves are already practically depleted. Let's find out whether the maternity capital payment program will be continued in 2019, and find out what amounts new parents can count on.

Who can apply for maternity capital?

Those Russians who have become mothers and fathers of their second or third child can register as a participant in the program and receive maternity capital. The child’s legal representatives can also apply for such a payment. In this case, parents or guardians do not receive cash, but a certificate that guarantees payment of the amount specified in it.

Will maternity leave be extended into 2019?

The extension of the program has more than once become the subject of lively government discussions. In conditions when the budget is annually closed with a deficit, and the crisis forces an increasing number of social programs to be curtailed, some members of the government proposed ending the maternity capital payment program. However, the majority of people's representatives voted to keep the payment. Otherwise, Russian families would have no incentive to have a second and subsequent children.

It's no secret that the current situation in the country threatens Russians with another demographic hole. The President of the Russian Federation also drew attention to this - he stated that during the entire period of the maternity capital program, the state has helped more than six million Russian families. In addition, Russians who were born during the period of the lowest birth rate will by 2019 reach the age suitable for marriage and having children. By depriving the people of payments, the demographic situation in the country can be aggravated even further.

It seems that the extension of the maternity capital program for 2019 is a necessary measure, without which the demographic problems in the country will sharply worsen

According to the most populist statements of deputies, after the birth of a third child it would be worth paying parents 1.5 million rubles. Unfortunately, this initiative was declared unrealizable - no financial reserves of the Russian Federation today are capable of covering such significant costs.

Some deputies suggested that the government find funds to index maternity capital. They demanded that family funding be increased by 6% and 5.1% in the next few years, that is, to raise the amount of maternity capital to 480 and 505 thousand rubles, respectively. But there was no budgetary space for this initiative either.

As a result, the only good news for parents was the bill, according to which the maternity capital payment program was extended until December 31, 2021, albeit frozen. To date, to implement this initiative, amendments have been made to the country's main financial document - for 2019, the budget allocated 311 billion rubles, which will be paid to parents, and for 2020 - another 292 billion.

As before, in 2019 the amount of maternity capital will be 453,000 rubles. However, the extension of the program was to be expected - elections are approaching, and because of this, the authorities do not want to make unpopular decisions, so as not to lose the support of part of the electorate. As before, to obtain maternity capital, parents should contact the Pension Fund authorities.

For what purposes can the payment be used?

Most often, maternity capital is used to improve a family’s living conditions.

It must be said that new rules regulating the possibility of using maternity capital have come into force. Now this money can be used in five ways:

to purchase a new or modernize an old home so that the family can feel comfortable after the birth of the baby;
to pay for educational services. Previously, the law allowed the certificate to be used from the moment the child turns 3 years old until he celebrates his twenty-fifth birthday. Now you can pay from maternity capital for the services of early development, socialization and correction centers as soon as the baby turns two months old;
to pay for the needs of the child - we are talking about families that are classified as low-income. Parents will be able to withdraw money from the account equal to the child's subsistence level;
to finance education, as well as pay for adaptation measures for children with disabilities;
for the formation of a funded pension for the baby’s mother.

Who can count on maternity capital

Under the program, payments are made to families who have a second or more child. For those families who will have their first child in 2019, they will not receive financial assistance.

There are no restrictions on the number of times maternity capital can be received, that is, if a woman has received such assistance many times already, this cannot become a basis for refusal.

Program action in 2019

Despite the fact that the program was launched in 2006 for a period of 10 years, its duration was extended by a special federal law until December 31, 2018.

The exact amount of maternity capital in 2019 is equal to 453,026 rubles, which are not subject to indexation until at least 2020. This amount is not subject to tax or other penalties.

What will the subsequent increase in family capital look like:

In 2020, the amount of maternity capital will reach 470,241 rubles, while the program itself will be valid until December 31, 2021, after which it is possible to extend the period for several more years.

In 2021, the amount will increase to 489,051 rubles.

Indexation was not carried out in 2019; it will resume only from 01/01/2020. And the period for issuing the certificate has been reduced - now, according to the decision of the Pension Fund, it will be issued not for 1 month, but within 15 days.

For what purposes can funds be spent?

New areas for spending the amount will not be added and will remain similar to 2018. However, there will be an expansion of the program, which consists in the possibility of using maternal capital funds for the “construction of a residential building on a garden plot.”

Financial assistance is provided for the following targeted areas:

education and payment for services related to education provided to children;
adaptation of disabled children in society;
retirement savings account for mother;
measures to improve housing conditions (obtaining new housing by purchase or on credit, reconstruction of existing housing).

The government's point of view is that this fact should not make Russians disheartened. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological achievements, which will ultimately provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.

The draft state budget for 2017-2019 was published in October

The draft document was published by employees of the Russian Ministry of Finance on October 12, 2016, and it is this document that will determine the structure of state revenues and expenses for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to new realities, including low, declining cash reserves and “Western restrictions” on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget to find out government priorities.

Innovations in the State Budget of Russia

To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures characterizing this bill can already be analyzed. Among the main innovations the following points can be noted:

The government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a single budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion expressed by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in aligning accumulated budget imbalances;
A distinctive feature of the new document was a change in the structure of sources of financing the budget deficit. If this year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more borrowed funds raised on the domestic market.

Revenue part of the Russian budget in 2017

It is worth noting that the revenue side in the 2017 budget is fixed at 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year’s figure. Many economists say that if we also take into account, then in real terms this part of the budget will continue the downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.

Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened position of the ruble - the 2019 budget includes a quote of 71.1 rubles per 1 US dollar. Oil prices included in the Russian budget are projected at $40/barrel. In addition, one cannot help but note the fact that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue portion will tend to decline - in 2019 this share will be 15%.

The revenue side of the state budget is affected by the shaky position of the ruble

The head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, called the main goal of the government to ensure income without additional tax reform and. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts explain government optimism for completely different reasons.

For example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector at RANEPA, says that the Ministry of Finance’s forecast growth in revenue is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its implementation with tax revenues, which the Ministry of Finance has budgeted in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. She calls the second reason a possible increase.

Expenditures of the Russian budget

Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this figure was announced in a slightly smaller amount. Thus, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 – 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing budget expenditures is the only way to ensure fiscal consolidation.

Let us recall that expenses in the Russian budget are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.e. 18% of all expenses will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of “hidden” costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this with certain plans that provide for early settlement of loan obligations of defense enterprises.

The Russian defense sector will receive the largest allocations

If we consider the functional areas of expenses item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:

it is planned to spend 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. The government in this case demonstrates a tendency to reduce, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
The national economy will receive allocations of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion, and in 2019 – 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, funding for the national economy will decrease from 14.2% of all expenses to 12.9%. It is quite strange that, given the policy of cutting spending on this item, government financiers are predicting an imminent crisis for the country. It is not entirely clear what reasons may provoke this growth - under the conditions of sanctions and the investment blockade, foreign investments cannot be counted on, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take out bank loans due to exorbitant interest rates;
national defense needs will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. This figure is an open part of budget expenditures for this item. Taking into account closed items that make up the gross portion of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in allocations. In 2018, allocations will be 2.72, and in 2019 – 2.856 trillion. Over three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the total budget expenditures, which indicates a high degree of “militarization” of this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is to carry out structural reforms related to production and reduce military spending. However, this expert recommendation has remained unheeded by the government for many years now;
National security spending is rising. Law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
expenses, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and will remain 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
The health sector also does not cause any particular concern for the government: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 – 394 and 369 billion rubles, respectively.

Doctors and teachers can hardly hope for government support

The analysis of hidden costs allowed us to draw the following conclusions:

government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the total budget expenditure and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure for 2016;
a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen areas, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate interbudgetary transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
150 “secret” billions of rubles will be allocated under the article “National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies”;
items including “other issues” and “hidden expenses” together account for about 24% of the total expenditure portion of the Russian budget.

About the budget deficit

The budget for the next three years is planned as deficit. In 2017, this figure will be 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed increasing the budget deficit to an amount of 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some economists' forecasts, this figure could reach 3.26 trillion, coming close to 3.9% of GDP.

This value would be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth citing the words expressed on this matter by Vladimir Putin.

The President said that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, but he maintains the healthy optimism of government financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that in comparison with the 2016 budget, income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and expenses should decrease by 670 billion in national currency.

In 2017, the budget deficit could reach a record 3.9% of GDP

It is also worth taking into account the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which the 2016 budget has already reached, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, the total could reach 16.63 trillion rubles.

Financiers are more optimistic about the future, suggesting that already in 2018 the country can reach a deficit equal to 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 it will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the Fitch analytical agency say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hit the budget hard.

State debt of the Russian Federation

As already mentioned, government financiers plan to increase borrowing levels to cover the budget deficit. Presumably, these will mainly be internal loans, which will amount to:

1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to yield another 1.6 trillion rubles;
in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.

In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the bonds will mature, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles. It is possible that the amount of federal loan bonds placed will be 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds from the government at high rates.

It is worth noting that the change in sources of deficit financing is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that, if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to provide 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until February 1, 2020.

To reduce the budget deficit, the volume of borrowings will increase

The borrowing level on foreign markets is falling sharply. They plan to attract no more than $7 billion from external sources in 2017, and in the next two years - another $3 billion, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.

In 2017, the country's main financial institution will simply refinance its expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy back securities worth CU 7.3 billion. Let us note right away: many experts believe that the main financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but due to the ongoing sanctions, which also apply to the lending sector.

The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation will increase by the beginning of 2020, reaching 16.6 trillion. r. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the 2016 level by 1.8%. Over the next three years, the total volume of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are frightened by the comparison of the figures of external public debt, which is estimated at 55 billion US dollars, the amount of internal debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.

The budget issue and Chechnya

The planned budget, aimed at saving money, has already caused dissatisfaction in some regions. Let us recall that after the project was published, Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic, expressed dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through the social network Instagram. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

In his statement, Peskov noted that the country’s economy is characterized by difficulties that relate not only to the federation as a whole, but also affect its individual regions. The presidential speaker emphasized that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of controversial issues, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the discontent of individual federal entities - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.

Ramzan Kadyrov expressed displeasure with the meager funding for Chechnya

Not long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to express criticism of the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic has not received funds for a long time under the federal target program related to the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. Reducing the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will negatively affect social obligations.

However, we cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov’s leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies worth 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidy leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). Chechnya's budget is already 80-87% formed from deductions from the all-Russian budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute of Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.

However, with a very significant amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to occupy 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment rates. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of monetary income of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of it is modestly recorded under the heading not “salary”, but “other income”.

Conclusions and forecasts

In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At the very least, he certainly does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve this, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up its remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict an aggravation of external risks for the country’s economy, but they speak of the possibility of an aggravation of internal risks.

In many ways, the viability of the Russian budget depends on the oil market

The already mentioned oil prices are to blame. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, and this, according to the Ministry of Finance, does not make it possible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why election expenses cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. However, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, these statements also cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.